Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

we are on this

21-Feb   arbboy   april-2015   boxing   mayweather v pacquiao   pacquaio   14/5   50

roughly 2/1 now so first part is good

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/floyd-mayweather-jr-v-manny-pacquiao/winner

was the intention to run this? trade it?


mayweather is 8/11 to win on points.

cynical=draw=second bout=more money for all

does pacquiao realistically have a shot or is this bet above likely to be value we can't eat?

Money is bigger than 10/11 on bf to win on points. I could see Money going off bigger than his current price for this.  The sheer weight of public/underdog money could easily move this market too far against Money and he might become a backable price similar to his fight against Hatton.  A poll on espn asked readers to name their winner and 64% said Pacman!

Arb, if you weren't such a prolific poster I'd be looking back through your history to quote you're stories about the Mayweather drifting further than anyone thought possible against Ricky Hatton.

What's your point?  Confused.

Yes I hit post before adding a second paragraph

The point is there'll be big money coming in on fight night and it'll likely fall hard on one side. Hopefully it'll be Mayweather will drifts.

Ok no worries.  It will be far more likely the 'squares' will back Pacman for various reasons.  He is an underdog.  Squares don't usually like smashing into a 1/2 or 2/5 poke as much.  He is more popular than Mayweather etcetc per the espn poll and just generally in life.  It just looks a spot where Mayweather COULD go off a very big price.  It might not happen but i can see a lot of similar spots to Hatton fight betting wise.

Indeed. All Joe public and boxing fans are looking at Mayweather by points just cus they want a bigger price than a 1/2 poke.

Plus there's the possibility of Asia going short on Pacman so that syndicates back Floyd over there and Manny over here.



  

[arbboy]

That £30k bet from a Glasgow pensioner has brought the LadPolitics betting probability of a Con. majority to 14.3%

Has fred bet a hung parliament?  I know your views are it is a 1/100 on shot in reality.  Seems like a good time to hoover up the 1/8 if we are not on.  It isn't going to get even bigger unless a few more Glasgow pensioners decide to drop a few more bombs in betting shops.

£20/£160 seems a logical bet.

[McGlashan]

I think he's saying that you called it correctly for the Hatton fight but he's not gunna quote it because he'd have to trawl back through hundreds of pages on your last posts

Thanks Dexter, that's exactly what I meant

[TightEnd]

That £30k bet from a Glasgow pensioner has brought the LadPolitics betting probability of a Con. majority to 14.3%

Has fred bet a hung parliament?  I know your views are it is a 1/100 on shot in reality.  Seems like a good time to hoover up the 1/8 if we are not on.  It isn't going to get even bigger unless a few more Glasgow pensioners decide to drop a few more bombs in betting shops.

no hung parliament bet. one of the short odds boys really i think


mcgill has got some bottle (win or lose) hasn't he? that length of the table black?...huzzah what a shot!

[arbboy]

That £30k bet from a Glasgow pensioner has brought the LadPolitics betting probability of a Con. majority to 14.3%

Has fred bet a hung parliament?  I know your views are it is a 1/100 on shot in reality.  Seems like a good time to hoover up the 1/8 if we are not on.  It isn't going to get even bigger unless a few more Glasgow pensioners decide to drop a few more bombs in betting shops.

no hung parliament bet. one of the short odds boys really i think


mcgill has got some bottle (win or lose) hasn't he? that length of the table black?...huzzah what a shot!

Shame he missed a sitter on the green and gone 11-8 down!

[TightEnd]

yup

McGill 11-8 down

we need him to win two more frames, then lose

not too much to ask for is it?

[Chompy]

Let's flick in a double on a couple of would-be bankers with BFSB.

Royal baby = girl @ 1-2 and Robin to be Brit's fav bird @ 2-5. Double comes to 11-10. Try for £50.

[arbboy]

How would people price Trump v Ronnie in the semi's if Ronald gets through?

[Marky147]

How would people price Trump v Ronnie in the semi's if Ronald gets through?

Nowadays, Ronnie has the ability to win matches, even when he's not playing well.

That said, Trump is the form player of the tournament, and I would guess it will be a flip.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

Darts tomorrow.  A lot of tight looking games.  Only game which looks unlikely to draw is MVG v Taylor.  Taylor really does look gone at the game recently.  Surprised MVG isn't a shorter price than he is.

The other four games all look very tight.

Recommend £30 at 7/2 on the 3 games top price 7/2 the draw and £50 on the Anderson v Barney game at 4/1 if you can get 4/1 at betway (skybet as well for non fred punters).  If not then just £30 at 7/2.  Wouldn't be averse to a yankee on the 4 draws for small stakes as well (cue the boss pulling his hair out at the very thought!)

Would be looking to lay Lewis (he plays twice on Thursday) against Chis and Barney as well at 6/5 mark on top of the draw bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/any-drawn-match

8/15 at boyles for any drawn match tomorrow also looks value with so many close games.  They put this in at the same price every week.  Looks like a good spot to pick them off.  I make this around a 2/5 shot.  Pretty sure fred can't get on at boyles but if someone can get on for fred recommend £75 to win £40.

[Karabiner]

How would people price Trump v Ronnie in the semi's if Ronald gets through?

8/11 Ronnie, 6/5 Trump.

[tikay]

Bautista Agut is through after a 6-0  6-3 win over Stepanek.

Emphatic, well done hector.

When does he next play?

[hector62]

He has a day off tomorrow then plays Estrella on Friday.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

Darts tomorrow.  A lot of tight looking games.  Only game which looks unlikely to draw is MVG v Taylor.  Taylor really does look gone at the game recently.  Surprised MVG isn't a shorter price than he is.

The other four games all look very tight.

Recommend £30 at 7/2 on the 3 games top price 7/2 the draw and £50 on the Anderson v Barney game at 4/1 if you can get 4/1 at betway (skybet as well for non fred punters).  If not then just £30 at 7/2.  Wouldn't be averse to a yankee on the 4 draws for small stakes as well (cue the boss pulling his hair out at the very thought!)

Would be looking to lay Lewis (he plays twice on Thursday) against Chis and Barney as well at 6/5 mark on top of the draw bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/any-drawn-match

8/15 at boyles for any drawn match tomorrow also looks value with so many close games.  They put this in at the same price every week.  Looks like a good spot to pick them off.  I make this around a 2/5 shot.  Pretty sure fred can't get on at boyles but if someone can get on for fred recommend £75 to win £40.

tried to keep this simple, all in one place

30 Apr 2015 - Dave Chisnall v Adrian Lewis - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

Stake : £30.00
Estimated Returns : £
135.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001303/F
Single

30 Apr 2015 - Raymond van Barneveld v Gary Anderson - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

Stake : £30.00
Estimated Returns : £
135.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001304/F
Single

30 Apr 2015 - James Wade v Stephen Bunting - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

Stake : £30.00
Estimated Returns : £
135.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001305/F
Single

30 Apr 2015 - Adrian Lewis v Raymond van Barneveld - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

Stake : £30.00
Estimated Returns : £
135.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001306/F
Yankee

30 Apr 2015 - Dave Chisnall v Adrian Lewis - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

30 Apr 2015 - Raymond van Barneveld v Gary Anderson - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

30 Apr 2015 - James Wade v Stephen Bunting - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

30 Apr 2015 - Adrian Lewis v Raymond van Barneveld - Match Betting

Draw @ 7/2

Stake : £11.00 (£1.00 x 11)
Estimated Returns : £
868.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001307/F
Total Stake : £131.00

and do those rather than the lays as well

[TightEnd]

Let's flick in a double on a couple of would-be bankers with BFSB.

Royal baby = girl @ 1-2 and Robin to be Brit's fav bird @ 2-5. Double comes to 11-10. Try for £50.

ugh

a girl is really 1-2?

(i wouldn't normally question the fenland guru, but its a girl is it?)