Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

Australia 1.25 on bet fair, really? Surely they are 1/10 or shorter to win this.

What am I missing?

hmm 1.08 now

I did post before the two wickets but now i would make aus 1.01!

[TightEnd]

i did this a bit earlier for you tikay

off thread because i couldn't confirm it at the time

     Bet placed, its reference is 516/558

Bet ref: 516/558 £5.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
The Open Championship 2015
Outright Winner
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Marc Leishman    175/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 1,060.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,060.00

[tikay]

i did this a bit earlier for you tikay

off thread because i couldn't confirm it at the time

     Bet placed, its reference is 516/558

Bet ref: 516/558 £5.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
The Open Championship 2015
Outright Winner
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Marc Leishman    175/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 1,060.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,060.00

Oh my, thank you, great bit of value there.

[TightEnd]

another (possibly stupid) question

what price would you make a play off tomorrow night

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/golf/market/1.119413965

3.25 anyone?

22 players currently seperated by 2 shots

i expected to see much shorter than 9/4

am i wrong?

[tikay]

another (possibly stupid) question

what price would you make a play off tomorrow night

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/golf/market/1.119413965

3.25 anyone?

22 players currently seperated by 2 shots

i expected to see much shorter than 9/4

am i wrong?

Must be worth Team Maths having a look at that.

[BigAdz]

i did this a bit earlier for you tikay

off thread because i couldn't confirm it at the time

     Bet placed, its reference is 516/558

Bet ref: 516/558 £5.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
The Open Championship 2015
Outright Winner
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Marc Leishman    175/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 1,060.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,060.00

Great bet, GL, Wp, etc.

But from a rules committee perspective, not really in the spirit is it to introduce a bet that late. Even your own discussion is when he was 55-1.

You could be doing that all day with a host of losers, and never mentioning them.

A bah humbug point, indeed, but, as my old man says, if you're going to do it, do it properly!

[TightEnd]

i did this a bit earlier for you tikay

off thread because i couldn't confirm it at the time

     Bet placed, its reference is 516/558

Bet ref: 516/558 £5.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
The Open Championship 2015
Outright Winner
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Marc Leishman    175/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 1,060.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,060.00

Great bet, GL, Wp, etc.

But from a rules committee perspective, not really in the spirit is it to introduce a bet that late. Even your own discussion is when he was 55-1.

You could be doing that all day with a host of losers, and never mentioning them.

A bah humbug point, indeed, but, as my old man says, if you're going to do it, do it properly!

it was placed after i posted he was 55-1.

he missed a birdie at the last, someone said he was now 150-1, i checked and i had to take the 175/1. had to go offline and posted when i came back

[BigAdz]

Fair enough.

Apologies.

Massive drift for one missed putt, hence you can see why I thought you must have placed it earlier. GL.....but not too much.

[Doobs]

i did this a bit earlier for you tikay

off thread because i couldn't confirm it at the time

     Bet placed, its reference is 516/558

Bet ref: 516/558 £5.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
The Open Championship 2015
Outright Winner
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Marc Leishman    175/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 1,060.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 1,060.00

Great bet, GL, Wp, etc.

But from a rules committee perspective, not really in the spirit is it to introduce a bet that late. Even your own discussion is when he was 55-1.

You could be doing that all day with a host of losers, and never mentioning them.

A bah humbug point, indeed, but, as my old man says, if you're going to do it, do it properly!

it was placed after i posted he was 55-1.

he missed a birdie at the last, someone said he was now 150-1, i checked and i had to take the 175/1. had to go offline and posted when i came back

Don't think it matters too much as it is off thread and he is 120s now.  The position is clearly a bit false, but sure the place part is very good.  Good luck with it, but pls finish 2nd to one of mine.

No idea on the play off thing either, someone could still be 2 or 3 clear tonight.

[Doobs]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

I've looked at them all and nothing really stands out individually so I thought about backing the draw in a few

FWIW I have had

Schwartzel/Rose
Walker/Henley
Grace/Casey
Molinari/Jaidee

Obviously, draws in strokeplay aren't that common but all of these pairings seem evenly matched. Also, apart from possibly Schwartzel/Rose, I can't see any of these players making a big charge up (or indeed a big slide down) the leaderboard

they are all 8/1 with sadblokes and 15/2 general so maybe a squidge of value

Tentatively recc a tenner on each one and a £1 yankee

Tikay is such an action junkie he still wants bets when we* have the top 3 in the betting.  I am just sitting back personally.

I have no idea if these are value or not, but if everybody is 15/2 something my natural inclination is that the correct price on the draw is likely to be bigger than 8/1.  I guess draws are more likely for those close together but have no feel as to whether this puts us below 8/1.

* I see we as in thread, as for some reason my Scott bet didnt work.  I checked Hills last night how big my bet was, having funked hard for him all Friday, turns out the answer was zero.  

I

I did a lot of back testing on the frequency of draws, I'll see if I can find the spreadsheet.  I seem to recall that I thought that when it was an easier course the frequency was higher than a tough course.  I couldn't precisely replicate the parings as I just paired up players with the same score.  Very weirdly, when I actually bet on the draws I lost all the time, but when I did the "pairing up of players with the same score thing" on that tournament, the higher than expected "draws" still occurred.   I can't understand what is going on, other than in the actual matches the players are being competitive and taking risks to beat their opponent, although they might be out of contention for the tournament.


ps I should add that this was on the last day, not day 3 pairings

Sorry for coming back late, have been out for much of the day.  Thinking about this whilst driving around and 8/1 does feel long as most are going to be near 68-70 I guess.  It must be better on a mild day like today too.  I would be very interested in the stats.  Sorry for putting anyone off, as I am now leaning towards these been good bets.  No idea on the actuals for the 4 picked right now.

[Tal]

Not often I drop my jaw at an odds on favourite, but have a look at the 2:40 at Stratford tomorrow.

Penglai Pavilion. That's the same one that placed in the Arc, right?

In a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Stratford?!

Turns out he ran at Hexham the other week, too!

Punctuation...everywhere..!

Be like rocking up at your local golf course and finding you're playing behind Tiger Woods Dustin Johnson.

Won by 22 lengths.

Horse racing folk, is that called a "distance"?

[doubleup]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

I've looked at them all and nothing really stands out individually so I thought about backing the draw in a few

FWIW I have had

Schwartzel/Rose
Walker/Henley
Grace/Casey
Molinari/Jaidee

Obviously, draws in strokeplay aren't that common but all of these pairings seem evenly matched. Also, apart from possibly Schwartzel/Rose, I can't see any of these players making a big charge up (or indeed a big slide down) the leaderboard

they are all 8/1 with sadblokes and 15/2 general so maybe a squidge of value

Tentatively recc a tenner on each one and a £1 yankee

Tikay is such an action junkie he still wants bets when we* have the top 3 in the betting.  I am just sitting back personally.

I have no idea if these are value or not, but if everybody is 15/2 something my natural inclination is that the correct price on the draw is likely to be bigger than 8/1.  I guess draws are more likely for those close together but have no feel as to whether this puts us below 8/1.

* I see we as in thread, as for some reason my Scott bet didnt work.  I checked Hills last night how big my bet was, having funked hard for him all Friday, turns out the answer was zero.  

I

I did a lot of back testing on the frequency of draws, I'll see if I can find the spreadsheet.  I seem to recall that I thought that when it was an easier course the frequency was higher than a tough course.  I couldn't precisely replicate the parings as I just paired up players with the same score.  Very weirdly, when I actually bet on the draws I lost all the time, but when I did the "pairing up of players with the same score thing" on that tournament, the higher than expected "draws" still occurred.   I can't understand what is going on, other than in the actual matches the players are being competitive and taking risks to beat their opponent, although they might be out of contention for the tournament.


ps I should add that this was on the last day, not day 3 pairings

Sorry for coming back late, have been out for much of the day.  Thinking about this whilst driving around and 8/1 does feel long as most are going to be near 68-70 I guess.  It must be better on a mild day like today too.  I would be very interested in the stats.  Sorry for putting anyone off, as I am now leaning towards these been good bets.  No idea on the actuals for the 4 picked right now.

The overall figure for 4th rounds seems to be 11%.

[TightEnd]

The Open after three rounds

Amateur Paul Dunne currently has a share of the lead.  He is the 1st amateur since Bobby Jones in 1927 to lead/co-lead after 54 holes. He achieved a record score today for an amateur in a third round with 66. He is 18 months older than Jordan Spieth, by the way.



Today only 10 of the top 70/ties went round in par or higher, the overnight leader Dustin Johnson was one of them with 75, the worst score today.

Two amateurs in the top 10.

Our book has 6 golfers in the top 10 and ties headed into the final round, these positions are 6-8 places each-way

Oosthuizen -12, tied for the lead after a 67 today

Click to see full-size image.

Garcia -9

Rose -9

Scott -9

Z Johnson -9

Goosen (top S African) -9

Plus

D Johnson (completely cold putter today with only one birdie ), Reed and Fowler -7 tied for 18th

Furyk -6 in the top 30

Furthermore Jaidee is guaranteed an each way return in the top Asian category

all aboard the birdie train tomorrow please lads



Losers for us tomorrow amongst the leaders are Spieth, Day, Harrington, Dunne, Willet



Overall there are 26 players within 5 shots of the lead going into tomorrow

Still wide open.

Leaderboard http://www.theopen.com/Leaderboard#!/traditional

prices http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/winner

[tikay]

Great summary, thanks Rich.

[Eso Kral]

Not often I drop my jaw at an odds on favourite, but have a look at the 2:40 at Stratford tomorrow.

Penglai Pavilion. That's the same one that placed in the Arc, right?

In a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Stratford?!

Turns out he ran at Hexham the other week, too!

Punctuation...everywhere..!

Be like rocking up at your local golf course and finding you're playing behind Tiger Woods Dustin Johnson.

Won by 22 lengths.

Horse racing folk, is that called a "distance"?

Sorry Tal but I think a distance over the sticks is classified as 30+ lengths so it's called 22 lengths