Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Ant, 4-1 the field for Palace top league scorer. We like 6-1 Wickham?

7-1 Wiemann to be top Derby scorer must be a deal better than 50-1 for the golden boot? Don't much like either though tbh. Backing a player who's not an out-and-out striker in these markets can't ever be a good move can it? Will he take pens?

I would say yes. In our system it is crucial we have a target man in the sole up front position. Wickham is one. I think he is going to be smiling from ear to ear at the service he is going to get as our main man and could thrive, I would say Bolasie and Zaha firing on all cylinders is any sole striker's dream come true.

However, I have no idea what is going on with Bamford I must admit. Can he play as the sole man up front? Will we go for that? Could he be effective?

Only reason, I wouldn't put that up as a recommend myself is that I would like 3 or 4 games just to see what Pardew is thinking, what system we are playing, and mainly to see if Bamford can take care of business by himself up there.

[Nico29]

I say wait until the teamsheet is announced - I will come on at 18.45, and let you know if I think it is a recommend, then let you decide if you fancy it. I hope the price holds.

thank you

my point stands. people bet on pre-season friendlies? they offer value? they make it pay?

You can def get value due to team news etc. Asked arb and he said you can often know way more than the layers in some spots in such games.

[DungBeetle]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/friendlies/dagenham-redbridge-v-crystal-palace/winner

There could be a bet on the Palace game tonight, for £60, I think the price will hold until the squad is announced. 1.5 currently away to Dagenham and Redbridge.

Likely to be putting out a team that would be mid table Championship with the likes of Bamford and Gayle probably starting. If the team I think gets put out does, the true price should be more like 1.2.

I hope the price holds until 18.45 (teamsheet announced) - if any of you with experience on spots like these thinks we should pull the trigger now, I am all ears.

Don't have stats to back it up but I'd imagine backing under 1.5 shots away at league 2 opposition in pre season friendlies is the route to the poor house!?

[Chompy]

Worth remembering re: Bamford that he wasn't automatic first choice for a lot of last season and Aitor was sniffing around for another striker at one point.

He ended up scoring plenty but so would a lot of others, with Fatty and Adomah making that many chances. I've followed him closely and trumpeted him in the Champo but don't think he's Premiership quality tbh.

[Nico29]

Adding on what arb said about value in friendlies. Key to finding the edge can also be about knowing how seriously the weaker team take the match more so than how the stronger side do. Midweek more chance of fatigue if after working a full day than weekends when more likely to have 2 days off.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

Been doing a lot of work on the ante post stuff and really like this bet.  Also like Sunderland to go down at 9/4 as well but i think this is a much better angle to attack it.  If we add in Dung's positive vibes for Watford it makes it an even stronger bet.

Sunderland 10/1 to finish bottom.  Based on the spread quotes Sunderland should be a lot closer to 4/1 for this than 10/1.  Recommend £100 at 10/1.  Happy to take the general 8/1 as well which seems wrong.  9/1 is available on bf for small amounts.

[TightEnd]

Adding on what arb said about value in friendlies. Key to finding the edge can also be about knowing how seriously the weaker team take the match more so than how the stronger side do. Midweek more chance of fatigue if after working a full day than weekends when more likely to have 2 days off.

Dag and Red are full time pro's though? (i get the general point)

anyway 1.55+ on betfair currently, Palace XI tonight that is

[Nico29]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/friendlies/dagenham-redbridge-v-crystal-palace/winner

There could be a bet on the Palace game tonight, for £60, I think the price will hold until the squad is announced. 1.5 currently away to Dagenham and Redbridge.

Likely to be putting out a team that would be mid table Championship with the likes of Bamford and Gayle probably starting. If the team I think gets put out does, the true price should be more like 1.2.

I hope the price holds until 18.45 (teamsheet announced) - if any of you with experience on spots like these thinks we should pull the trigger now, I am all ears.

Don't have stats to back it up but I'd imagine backing under 1.5 shots away at league 2 opposition in pre season friendlies is the route to the poor house!?

If just backed blindly no doubts. But if you use every source of info available to you like team news late on and other factors that the not so mature market might not have adjusted correctly enough for, i'd def say an edge can be found.

[Nico29]

Adding on what arb said about value in friendlies. Key to finding the edge can also be about knowing how seriously the weaker team take the match more so than how the stronger side do. Midweek more chance of fatigue if after working a full day than weekends when more likely to have 2 days off.

Dag and Red are full time pro's though? (i get the general point)

anyway 1.55+ on betfair currently, Palace XI tonight that is

Fair point tighty. Had bromley on the mind as mentioned before!

[TightEnd]

ok not one for tft but
Spy bet are offering a bet on over 50 goals between Martin,Bent,Ince and Wieman
at 5/2.
Buying money?

martin has 20 in 44 and 18 in 40 last two seasons and we think they are a better side this time. lets pencil in 20

bent 15? 10 last season in 15 appearances in the league. perhaps 15 is conservative

ince and weimann 15 between them? seems reasonable,

top 4 derby scores scored 46 out of 85 last season and 5/2 looks an ok price to me

what do we know about clement's style? any clues from pre-season? is he like karanka....a manager whose teams don't concede many, are built from the back and have some flair in the front 3 to win a lot of games snugly? or is he going to be going for it?

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

Been doing a lot of work on the ante post stuff and really like this bet.  Also like Sunderland to go down at 9/4 as well but i think this is a much better angle to attack it.  If we add in Dung's positive vibes for Watford it makes it an even stronger bet.

Sunderland 10/1 to finish bottom.  Based on the spread quotes Sunderland should be a lot closer to 4/1 for this than 10/1.  Recommend £100 at 10/1.  Happy to take the general 8/1 as well which seems wrong.  9/1 is available on bf for small amounts.

need some money in a particular account to take the 10/1. will take 8/1 elsewhere if i have to but lets see if 10/1 is still there when tikay sees my message

[TightEnd]

p.s i thought norwich 9/2 to finish bottom was a really nice price.

[MattyHollis]

p.s i thought norwich 9/2 to finish bottom was a really nice price.

Norwich and Sunderland are both quoted @ 38.5 on SPIN to buy and differ in price as arb said, it is interesting.

[arbboy]

p.s i thought norwich 9/2 to finish bottom was a really nice price.

They are both in for the same points with SPIN.  So if you think Norwich are a bet then Sunderland maybe should be upped to max bet £200 maybe at twice the price.  So many negatives for Sunderland for me.  Losing Wickham, Johnson court case about to start (he could easily be in jail in the next few weeks), gaffer doesn't really want to be there imo and it will be his last season surely as a gaffer (his wife was promised by him he would retire last year - can't imagine she is enjoying being located in the NE of England), Defoe only there because he hated the MLS and had nowhere else to go.  Can't see a great deal of positives.

[MattyHollis]

p.s i thought norwich 9/2 to finish bottom was a really nice price.

They are both in for the same points with SPIN.  So if you think Norwich are a bet then Sunderland maybe should be upped to max bet £200 maybe at twice the price.  So many negatives for Sunderland for me.  Losing Wickham, Johnson court case about to start (he could easily be in jail in the next few weeks), gaffer doesn't really want to be there imo and it will be his last season surely as a gaffer (his wife was promised by him he would retire last year - can't imagine she is enjoying being located in the NE of England), Defoe only there because he hated the MLS and had nowhere else to go.  Can't see a great deal of positives.

Fer and M'vila could be positives if they get them, and someone shrewder than me thinks Kaboul and Coates could make a good CB pairing.

That being said i've had a little bit at the price as I like the spot myself.