Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Like 5 much more than 4.

Purely because I like 10/1 shots better than 3/1 pokes.

[Josedinho]

Surely they must win gold to be a contender? Pendleton isn't even fav for her event.

[Tal]

A few other female swimmers are in with a decent shout of gold if Rebecca Adlington falters. Keri-Anne Payne the best bet.

As with Pendleton, that is relevant. We aren't likely to see two female cyclists or two female swimmers, unless something really dramatic happens (gold with a WR or two golds).

You have to expect a bit of an extra performance at home, too, so an extra surprise medal (with X-Factor style story "I'm doing this for my sick uncle's goldfish, who taught me to ride a bike") could see an entry no one expected in the shortlist. This makespicking someone who might not get in on personality alone (as...ahem...Ennis might) a dangerous game.

The bet works because we aren't choosing the four women, of course, just how many of them there will be.

[Bertpup]

A few other female swimmers are in with a decent shout of gold if Rebecca Adlington falters. Keri-Anne Payne the best bet.

As with Pendleton, that is relevant. We aren't likely to see two female cyclists or two female swimmers, unless something really dramatic happens (gold with a WR or two golds).

You have to expect a bit of an extra performance at home, too, so an extra surprise medal (with X-Factor style story "I'm doing this for my sick uncle's goldfish, who taught me to ride a bike") could see an entry no one expected in the shortlist. This makespicking someone who might not get in on personality alone (as...ahem...Ennis might) a dangerous game.

The bet works because we aren't choosing the four women, of course, just how many of them there will be.

 In 2008 there were two female cyclists nominated Rebecca Romero and Nicole Cooke.

[Tal]

A few other female swimmers are in with a decent shout of gold if Rebecca Adlington falters. Keri-Anne Payne the best bet.

As with Pendleton, that is relevant. We aren't likely to see two female cyclists or two female swimmers, unless something really dramatic happens (gold with a WR or two golds).

You have to expect a bit of an extra performance at home, too, so an extra surprise medal (with X-Factor style story "I'm doing this for my sick uncle's goldfish, who taught me to ride a bike") could see an entry no one expected in the shortlist. This makespicking someone who might not get in on personality alone (as...ahem...Ennis might) a dangerous game.

The bet works because we aren't choosing the four women, of course, just how many of them there will be.

 In 2008 there were two female cyclists nominated Rebecca Romero and Nicole Cooke.

That is true. However, Cooke was a big deal because it was 1. The road race that she won and we don't do well in it normally and 2. She is Welsh. Romero was a big deal because she won her second Olympic medal, having won in the skulls rowing in 2004.

It has to be something special to make the cut.

[horseplayer]

S.o.d. gone back to forest

yes i do feel pretty sick after suggesting to a friend last week it wouldnt be the biggest surprise ever

did i back him? did i heck

[Doobs]

About time I got one through

King George Saturday

Danedream (10/1 with Boylesports and Betfair)

In last year's arc, she faced a field containing So You Think (multiple gr 1 winner), St Nicholas Abbey (winner breeders cup turf winner), Snow Fairy (multiple gr 1 winner), Sarafina (multiple Gr 1 winner) and a series of other group one winners.  Before the race this looked like a very strong Arc.  

She won by 5 lengths,  which matches the distances of Hellisio and Peintre celebre and is only beaten by Ribot, the great Sea Bird and Sakhee (6 lenghts)

This wasn't a one off, she was improving all season, and had smashed up her rivals in the two races prior to the Arc too.  The only blot in this story of improvement was a defeat at Saint Cloud.

in her last race, she trailed in last at Saint Cloud.

There is nothing on form between the first 3 in the betting (St Nicholas Abbey, Nathaniel and Sea Moon), abnd  were all rated 126 to 127 last season bu Timeform.  I don't think you can convincingly argue that any has definitely improved this season (two have a line through Red Cadeaux, rated 121 last season), and nathaniel just beat a hard to rate improving Farrh and a declining Twice Over (rated 128 last season).

The fourth favourite Dunaden was rated 124, and hasn't done enough to show beetter than that, as was beaten well enough by Sea Moon.  He may have been unlucky in that race, but not enough to be rated higher than the 3 above him in the betting.

Back to Danedream.

Her rating last year was 132.  As a filly, she gets a 5 lb alowance, so on last year's form she is 10 lbs clear of all the 4 horses above her in the betting.  If she can get close to that she wins.

Why isn't she favourite?  You can argue she may not have trained on (though she won her first race cosy enough); she is small; she carries a lot more weight as a 4 year old (like Sea Moon and Nathaniel don't!) you can point to the Saint Cloud failure; you can point to her rivals good form this year.

But I think it is mostly down to the fact that she is a German filly, and German horses tend to be rubbish.  In addition, a lot of people probably assume last year's Arc was some kind of fluke (my immediate thought when I watched the race), but the whole field can't have run below form.  They have probably never looked at her lead up to the Arc, given it was a bunch of races far from our shores.  

And if you don't back that, Deep Brillante is probably underated in the betting too.  3 year olds get a lot of weight, and it is a long time since Japanese horses were rubbish.

Good luck

[Josedinho]

S.o.d. gone back to forest

yes i do feel pretty sick after suggesting to a friend last week it wouldnt be the biggest surprise ever

did i back him? did i heck

Backed him at 25/1 to get the job last year.

Instead they paid Pompey money for a manager they were about to sack.

[horseplayer]

S.o.d. gone back to forest

yes i do feel pretty sick after suggesting to a friend last week it wouldnt be the biggest surprise ever

did i back him? did i heck

Backed him at 25/1 to get the job last year.

Instead they paid Pompey money for a manager they were about to sack.

sickening

have spent a lot of the last few months telling anybody who will listen how brilliant he is

good luck to him

[Doobs]

A few other female swimmers are in with a decent shout of gold if Rebecca Adlington falters. Keri-Anne Payne the best bet.

As with Pendleton, that is relevant. We aren't likely to see two female cyclists or two female swimmers, unless something really dramatic happens (gold with a WR or two golds).

You have to expect a bit of an extra performance at home, too, so an extra surprise medal (with X-Factor style story "I'm doing this for my sick uncle's goldfish, who taught me to ride a bike") could see an entry no one expected in the shortlist. This makespicking someone who might not get in on personality alone (as...ahem...Ennis might) a dangerous game.

The bet works because we aren't choosing the four women, of course, just how many of them there will be.

 In 2008 there were two female cyclists nominated Rebecca Romero and Nicole Cooke.

That is true. However, Cooke was a big deal because it was 1. The road race that she won and we don't do well in it normally and 2. She is Welsh. Romero was a big deal because she won her second Olympic medal, having won in the skulls rowing in 2004.

It has to be something special to make the cut.

Think you are probably selling Nicole Cooke short. She was only World Champion in 2008 too, and had won both the 2006 and 2007 women's tour de france.  She was probably equivalent to a certain Bradley Wiggins in Women's cycling at the time.  

[Tal]

A few other female swimmers are in with a decent shout of gold if Rebecca Adlington falters. Keri-Anne Payne the best bet.

As with Pendleton, that is relevant. We aren't likely to see two female cyclists or two female swimmers, unless something really dramatic happens (gold with a WR or two golds).

You have to expect a bit of an extra performance at home, too, so an extra surprise medal (with X-Factor style story "I'm doing this for my sick uncle's goldfish, who taught me to ride a bike") could see an entry no one expected in the shortlist. This makespicking someone who might not get in on personality alone (as...ahem...Ennis might) a dangerous game.

The bet works because we aren't choosing the four women, of course, just how many of them there will be.

 In 2008 there were two female cyclists nominated Rebecca Romero and Nicole Cooke.

That is true. However, Cooke was a big deal because it was 1. The road race that she won and we don't do well in it normally and 2. She is Welsh. Romero was a big deal because she won her second Olympic medal, having won in the skulls rowing in 2004.

It has to be something special to make the cut.

Think you are probably selling Nicole Cooke short. She was only World Champion in 2008 too, and had won both the 2006 and 2007 women's tour de france.  She was probably equivalent to a certain Bradley Wiggins in Women's cycling at the time.  

Cheerfully conceded, although it was probably the Olympic performance that got her into the final 10. The point I am making is there will probably need to be more than a good performance to make the cut.

[Horneris]

About time I got one through

King George Saturday

Danedream (10/1 with Boylesports and Betfair)

In last year's arc, she faced a field containing So You Think (multiple gr 1 winner), St Nicholas Abbey (winner breeders cup turf winner), Snow Fairy (multiple gr 1 winner), Sarafina (multiple Gr 1 winner) and a series of other group one winners.  Before the race this looked like a very strong Arc.  

She won by 5 lengths,  which matches the distances of Hellisio and Peintre celebre and is only beaten by Ribot, the great Sea Bird and Sakhee (6 lenghts)

This wasn't a one off, she was improving all season, and had smashed up her rivals in the two races prior to the Arc too.  The only blot in this story of improvement was a defeat at Saint Cloud.

in her last race, she trailed in last at Saint Cloud.

There is nothing on form between the first 3 in the betting (St Nicholas Abbey, Nathaniel and Sea Moon), abnd  were all rated 126 to 127 last season bu Timeform.  I don't think you can convincingly argue that any has definitely improved this season (two have a line through Red Cadeaux, rated 121 last season), and nathaniel just beat a hard to rate improving Farrh and a declining Twice Over (rated 128 last season).

The fourth favourite Dunaden was rated 124, and hasn't done enough to show beetter than that, as was beaten well enough by Sea Moon.  He may have been unlucky in that race, but not enough to be rated higher than the 3 above him in the betting.

Back to Danedream.

Her rating last year was 132.  As a filly, she gets a 5 lb alowance, so on last year's form she is 10 lbs clear of all the 4 horses above her in the betting.  If she can get close to that she wins.

Why isn't she favourite?  You can argue she may not have trained on (though she won her first race cosy enough); she is small; she carries a lot more weight as a 4 year old (like Sea Moon and Nathaniel don't!) you can point to the Saint Cloud failure; you can point to her rivals good form this year.

But I think it is mostly down to the fact that she is a German filly, and German horses tend to be rubbish.  In addition, a lot of people probably assume last year's Arc was some kind of fluke (my immediate thought when I watched the race), but the whole field can't have run below form.  They have probably never looked at her lead up to the Arc, given it was a bunch of races far from our shores.  

And if you don't back that, Deep Brillante is probably underated in the betting too.  3 year olds get a lot of weight, and it is a long time since Japanese horses were rubbish.

Good luck

Good post.

I'm in the Dunaden camp myself. I think he was that unlucky lto and given a shocker of a ride by Lemaire.

[The Camel]

About time I got one through

King George Saturday

Danedream (10/1 with Boylesports and Betfair)

In last year's arc, she faced a field containing So You Think (multiple gr 1 winner), St Nicholas Abbey (winner breeders cup turf winner), Snow Fairy (multiple gr 1 winner), Sarafina (multiple Gr 1 winner) and a series of other group one winners.  Before the race this looked like a very strong Arc.  

She won by 5 lengths,  which matches the distances of Hellisio and Peintre celebre and is only beaten by Ribot, the great Sea Bird and Sakhee (6 lenghts)

This wasn't a one off, she was improving all season, and had smashed up her rivals in the two races prior to the Arc too.  The only blot in this story of improvement was a defeat at Saint Cloud.

in her last race, she trailed in last at Saint Cloud.

There is nothing on form between the first 3 in the betting (St Nicholas Abbey, Nathaniel and Sea Moon), abnd  were all rated 126 to 127 last season bu Timeform.  I don't think you can convincingly argue that any has definitely improved this season (two have a line through Red Cadeaux, rated 121 last season), and nathaniel just beat a hard to rate improving Farrh and a declining Twice Over (rated 128 last season).

The fourth favourite Dunaden was rated 124, and hasn't done enough to show beetter than that, as was beaten well enough by Sea Moon.  He may have been unlucky in that race, but not enough to be rated higher than the 3 above him in the betting.

Back to Danedream.

Her rating last year was 132.  As a filly, she gets a 5 lb alowance, so on last year's form she is 10 lbs clear of all the 4 horses above her in the betting.  If she can get close to that she wins.

Why isn't she favourite?  You can argue she may not have trained on (though she won her first race cosy enough); she is small; she carries a lot more weight as a 4 year old (like Sea Moon and Nathaniel don't!) you can point to the Saint Cloud failure; you can point to her rivals good form this year.

But I think it is mostly down to the fact that she is a German filly, and German horses tend to be rubbish.  In addition, a lot of people probably assume last year's Arc was some kind of fluke (my immediate thought when I watched the race), but the whole field can't have run below form.  They have probably never looked at her lead up to the Arc, given it was a bunch of races far from our shores.  

And if you don't back that, Deep Brillante is probably underated in the betting too.  3 year olds get a lot of weight, and it is a long time since Japanese horses were rubbish.

Good luck

Good post.

I'm in the Dunaden camp myself. I think he was that unlucky lto and given a shocker of a ride by Lemaire.

Agree Lemaire gave him a tez ride.

But they were cheap gains after the race was over.

Can't see him beating Sea Moon.

If I had to put my life on the race, I'd pick Nathaniel, but at the prices, I'm with Doobs

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 06:00, Friday July 20th

LOSS on Month = £22.50

Unsettled Bets = £451.50

The unsettled bets will be carried forward into August's accounts.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=9

[MereNovice]

Daily Report, as @ 06:00, Friday July 20th

The Open started with a calm day that led to some good scoring; unfortunately none of it by our horses. Somehow Fred hasn't backed 3G (Nicolas Colsaerts) who is one shot off the lead. That was a bad oversight. Adam Scott leads on -6. Our closest runner for first round leader was five shots behind despite a promising start by Jeev Milkha Singh. They were all at least 100/1 shots so it was to be expected.
Our bets for overall winner (all each-way), Fowler, Furyk and Lehman are all over par but it's early days.

The Test Series started with a solid performance by England. They are 267/3 overnight. There was a full day's play despite a 15 minute late start due to rain. Our man Hashim Amla is likely to get to the crease sometime today.  The much vaunted South African bowling attack looked fairly ordinary on a placid pitch that looked as if it will provide assistance for spin as the game progresses.

We had some discussion about the number of women who may be nominated for SPOTY but no bet as yet.

We also had some discussion about horses which will probably lead to a bet.