Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Just out of interest, how are SA 7/1 in cricket with Eng 6/4 ? Not saying we'll lose, massive fanboy and I'm sure our bowling attack will crush them but the prices don't make sense to me ?

I think it's a reflection of how the pitch is expected to deteriorate.
It still seems quite big got South Africa though.

Runs on the board are big here, with a dry top that will get worse and quite helpful bowling conditions today

Make Eng good favourites.

A scenario where SA win? We are all out 375, they score 550 and bowl us out?

Pretty unlikely, hence the price

Why would they need us out, they wouldn't be expected to make 200 in 4th innings ?

If the expectation is the pitch will be a dust bowl by Day 4-5, which some suggest, than you are odds against to chase 200 in the 4th

[mondatoo]

As an aside, is there any commentator for any Sport funnier than Bumble, the man is absolutely hilarious, <3 Bumble.

[smashedagain]

As an aside, is there any commentator for any Sport funnier than Bumble, the man is absolutely hilarious, <3 Bumble.

+1

[MereNovice]

About time I got one through

King George Saturday

Danedream (10/1 with Boylesports and Betfair)

In last year's arc, she faced a field containing So You Think (multiple gr 1 winner), St Nicholas Abbey (winner breeders cup turf winner), Snow Fairy (multiple gr 1 winner), Sarafina (multiple Gr 1 winner) and a series of other group one winners.  Before the race this looked like a very strong Arc.  

She won by 5 lengths,  which matches the distances of Hellisio and Peintre celebre and is only beaten by Ribot, the great Sea Bird and Sakhee (6 lenghts)

This wasn't a one off, she was improving all season, and had smashed up her rivals in the two races prior to the Arc too.  The only blot in this story of improvement was a defeat at Saint Cloud.

in her last race, she trailed in last at Saint Cloud.

There is nothing on form between the first 3 in the betting (St Nicholas Abbey, Nathaniel and Sea Moon), abnd  were all rated 126 to 127 last season bu Timeform.  I don't think you can convincingly argue that any has definitely improved this season (two have a line through Red Cadeaux, rated 121 last season), and nathaniel just beat a hard to rate improving Farrh and a declining Twice Over (rated 128 last season).

The fourth favourite Dunaden was rated 124, and hasn't done enough to show beetter than that, as was beaten well enough by Sea Moon.  He may have been unlucky in that race, but not enough to be rated higher than the 3 above him in the betting.

Back to Danedream.

Her rating last year was 132.  As a filly, she gets a 5 lb alowance, so on last year's form she is 10 lbs clear of all the 4 horses above her in the betting.  If she can get close to that she wins.

Why isn't she favourite?  You can argue she may not have trained on (though she won her first race cosy enough); she is small; she carries a lot more weight as a 4 year old (like Sea Moon and Nathaniel don't!) you can point to the Saint Cloud failure; you can point to her rivals good form this year.

But I think it is mostly down to the fact that she is a German filly, and German horses tend to be rubbish.  In addition, a lot of people probably assume last year's Arc was some kind of fluke (my immediate thought when I watched the race), but the whole field can't have run below form.  They have probably never looked at her lead up to the Arc, given it was a bunch of races far from our shores.  

And if you don't back that, Deep Brillante is probably underated in the betting too.  3 year olds get a lot of weight, and it is a long time since Japanese horses were rubbish.

Good luck

Good post.

I'm in the Dunaden camp myself. I think he was that unlucky lto and given a shocker of a ride by Lemaire.

Agree Lemaire gave him a tez ride.

But they were cheap gains after the race was over.

Can't see him beating Sea Moon.

If I had to put my life on the race, I'd pick Nathaniel, but at the prices, I'm with Doobs

On.

I snoozed and missed the Boylesports price (now 8/1) so took 10/1 at Betfair.

Doobs   Betfair   Horses   Ascot 21/7 16:35   Danedream   10/1   £20

Danedream   11   £20.00   £200.00

[Tal]

As an aside, is there any commentator for any Sport funnier than Bumble, the man is absolutely hilarious, <3 Bumble.

Just one...

[MereNovice]

South Africa 1/1.
Mr. Amla is about to get a stiff challenge.

[mondatoo]

 

[hector62]

Football tonight  GB v Brazil

Brazil to be winning at 1/2 time currently 8/5 on betfred. Way out of line with everyone else.

Recommend £25

[TightEnd]

South Africa 1/1.
Mr. Amla is about to get a stiff challenge.

195 runs to go

Think this is a terrific bet, mainly because Amla's technique is rock solid. He'll grind and grind.

[MereNovice]

Football tonight  GB v Brazil

Brazil to be winning at 1/2 time currently 8/5 on betfred. Way out of line with everyone else.

Recommend £25

On.

hector62   BetFred   Football   GB v Brazil - half-time   Brazil   8/5   £25

Great Britain v Brazil
H/T Betting
Brazil   8/5   
Total stake   £ 25.00
Estimated return   £ 65.00

Any thoughts on the Swedish women?

[MereNovice]

South Africa 1/1.
Mr. Amla is about to get a stiff challenge.

195 runs to go

Think this is a terrific bet, mainly because Amla's technique is rock solid. He'll grind and grind.

Agree about Amla. Always good to watch. Organised and unflappable with wonderfully stylish strokes.

[Doobs]

Football tonight  GB v Brazil

Brazil to be winning at 1/2 time currently 8/5 on betfred. Way out of line with everyone else.

Recommend £25

On.

hector62   BetFred   Football   GB v Brazil - half-time   Brazil   8/5   £25

Great Britain v Brazil
H/T Betting
Brazil   8/5   
Total stake   £ 25.00
Estimated return   £ 65.00

Any thoughts on the Swedish women?

Wish I'd found a way to meet more of them when I was younger

[The Camel]

Nearly 150,000 views in 6 months.

I think this thread has been a success.

[smashedagain]

Nearly 150,000 views in 6 months.

I think this thread has been a success.

Amazing

[MereNovice]

MA Jimenez to win his 3-ball 12.48  7/5 Bwin.

Played crap yesterday and still won. 71/72/75 IIRC

Sandy

On.

No idea how good a bet this is but you have good to Fred in the past. Got 2.54 on Betfair.

henrik777   Betfair   Golf   The Open: Jimenez/Jacquelin/Duval 3-ball   Jimenez   2.54   £40

Miguel Angel Jimenez   2.54   £40.00   £61.60

Well, he left it late but he got the job done with a bit to spare in the end.
Nice one.