Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

No action is being taken.

[pokerfan]

Sky sports is free this weekend btw.

This f-1 channel is decent.

[Tal]

Way decision is worded implies that Renault found a loophole in the traction control regulations.

Suggests they'll look to close that ASAP, else every team will have it in their car for the next race

[tikay]

Congrats on the Amla bet, Tighty Vince, what a great spot!

Anyone know what's with those wispy beards that many, including Amla, are sporting these days? Fashion? Religion?

[TightEnd]

Amla a devout Muslim from the big Asian community in Durban.

[MereNovice]

Not sure that I'd describe it as "wispy".

[Bad Beat]

 Sorry for all the drama. Had to get on.

 I have now walked further this morning than the winner will do in playing 72-holes. I wish it did take just five minutes to get on.

 I believe this thread works best when people put up things that have a better reason behind them than "I fancy that". In the golf I don't really fancy anything. I do know some things about the market though...

 50% of the business is done before the start and Ladbrokes were 10/1 Woods. They have no real need to lay him now and they've been running away from him. I think around 7/1 is about right now and so it isn't a bet at the price.

 I think that to win you will need to get to -8 worse ways. That means if you are -2 you need to shoot 64 and you need others to not shoot low and Scott to implode. It is possible but the treble of picking the right guy to do that, Scott to implode and the next 6 not to get to -9 is asking a lot. Even at -3 you are asking a lot and the two guys that are there wouldn't be the obvious ones to shoot 64.

 I reckon you need to be -4 at the moment to have any shot. That makes a seven runner race and Ladbrokes offer ew 1/4 1,2,3. This is an amazing gift from them and they must be punished.

[MereNovice]

Ladbrokes are 1/5 1,2,3.

[Bad Beat]

 I liked McDowell yesterday and on Friday and I've played pretty big but at 4/1 and 1/5th 1,2,3 he is not one I am pressing on. It could be argued that 4/5 a place is decewnt value and I wouldn't argue. The whole book is overbroke for a place and these guys are all value on that half of the bet. It should probably be shorter in that respect but I'm happy with my position.

 I could see the argument for Oleson. He is a decent prospect and he impressed yesterday playing with Tiger. At 80/1 you are getting 16/1 a place which is probably good and you are only giving up a small bit of equity on the win bet. Wouldn't put you off.

 The two I played smallish today were Els and Johnson. Sure I know that Els is not the player he was, the putter lets him down and he may even be a bottler these days. 5/1 a place is a very good bet though. He can shoot 64/65/66  and win this, I don't mind the win bet too much, it's only 27/1 on Betfair. I think the place part is great though. Should be about 3/1.

 I prefer Zach Johnson as a player though. He did well yesterday and I think he's more of a winner these days. Betfair have him 29/1 to win so you are giving up a little more on the win but again I think 7/2 would be about right the place with no overound.

 You should now work out today's very strong bet by a process of elimination...

[Horneris]

Worth noting that Zach Johnson is 12/1 in the without Scott market with 3 places 1/4.

Els 11/1 in this market.

Same terms, both coral. If like me, you don't think Scott will implode and actually offers value at current odds this could be a better option.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/w-o-scott

[Bad Beat]

(sorry 1/5th 1,2,3. That was a missclick - I am aware).
 
 Brandt Snedeker had a bad day yesterday. Perceived wisom was that he would have a bad day. People talked about Ian Baker Finch and Bobby Clampett like it was relevant. It was assumed that when he dopped a shot he would immediately drop ten. At -6 he traded 100/1 at one stage.

 I think he has played really well this week. He has kept it out of the bunkers and hit it low. All that stuff is already factored into the market though. We needn't think about it.

 Lets try and put a place only price on each player...

 Scott....80% chance 1/4...does that sound right?

 McDowell 60% or 4/6 perhaps.

 Woods eves or 50% maybe?

 Els and Johson 3/1 and 7/2

 Olseson 10/1.

 That lot doesn't add up to 250 and there are three places. Either it's 50% that a player outside of these seven gets a place or they are all too big.

 I think Snedeker is less than 2/1 to place. I think if he shoots a score of 69 or lower he will do it and if he shoots 70 or 71 he can do it. 14/5 that this happens seems MASSIVE.

 I strongly recommend a decent ew bet on Brandt Snedeker at 14/1 with Ladbrokes ew 1/5th 1,2,3.

[MereNovice]

(sorry 1/5th 1,2,3. That was a missclick - I am aware).
 
 Brandt Snedeker had a bad day yesterday. Perceived wisom was that he would have a bad day. People talked about Ian Baker Finch and Bobby Clampett like it was relevant. It was assumed that when he dopped a shot he would immediately drop ten. At -6 he traded 100/1 at one stage.

 I think he has played really well this week. He has kept it out of the bunkers and hit it low. All that stuff is already factored into the market though. We needn't think about it.

 Lets try and put a place only price on each player...

 Scott....80% chance 1/4...does that sound right?

 McDowell 60% or 4/6 perhaps.

 Woods eves or 50% maybe?

 Els and Johson 3/1 and 7/2

 Olseson 10/1.

 That lot doesn't add up to 250 and there are three places. Either it's 50% that a player outside of these seven gets a place or they are all too big.

 I think Snedeker is less than 2/1 to place. I think if he shoots a score of 69 or lower he will do it and if he shoots 70 or 71 he can do it. 14/5 that this happens seems MASSIVE.

 I strongly recommend a decent ew bet on Brandt Snedeker at 14/1 with Ladbrokes ew 1/5th 1,2,3.

On.

I'm sure you're right but I'm not man enough to go big on Snedeker.

Bad Beat   Ladbrokes      Golf   The Open   Snedeker e/w   14/1   £40

Single - Brandt Snedeker - Each Way
Each Way 1/5 1,2,3
2 lines at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential Return: £376.00

[MereNovice]

Hamilton drops two places off the grid.

[rfgqqabc]

Scott to implode please!

[MereNovice]

Hamilton's race is already effectively over.