Tips for Tikay

[Horneris]

Some comedy prices in those lists. Any mileage in Kevin Davies at 25/1?

Well he's stayed, signed a new contract and Bolton have kept their team together....

Very trappy division, and trappy market for sure

Just don't fancy a runaway team in it this year

Nah.

The Bolton value is with N'Gog @ 25s if he stays. Sordell and Davies expected to play a bit wider at times.

N'Gog has never ever been prolific but could make a big impact in the championship. Surprisingly, I think he does have a finish. I wouldn't want to back him at this stage tho as Saint Etienne have already had a 3m bid turned down and I doubt they could turn it down if they came back with a 5m+ bid.

There is one player I'm really really keen on at the prices but I need to get on fully before tipping it up.

I wouldn't be laying Beckford @ 12s. I certainly wouldn't be backing him, for the reasons specified by Tighty, but as a natural finisher hes right up there with the Jelavic and Le Fondre's of this world.

[Chompy]

Also worth a study imo...

Rotherham are clear favourites to win league two. From what I can work out Daniel Nardiello and Alex Revell will be their two main strikes. Nardiello is 16-1 with VC to be top scorer. No prices are quoted about Revell. Might be worth a sneaky call to Shybet and VC to see what they quote?

[ripple11]

Note for MereNovice to check

T20 Qtrs tomorrow Somerset v Essex

Good weather

Taunton a small ground, very six friendly

Two big hitting teams..Compton, Hildreth, Napier, Ten Doeschate etc

edit, Bopara available too

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/friends-life-t20/somerset-v-essex/total-6s

Looking to have the overs on sixes if the quote is no higher than 10, when it comes up.


T20 Group matches at Taunton

1 six sixes, 120 scored only   bad weather
2 nine sixes, 140 chased down ok weather
3 ten sixes, 180 chased down good weather
4 two sixes, 140 chased down bad weather
5 rained off
6 ten sixes, 190 highest innings good weather


If we plug in good weather, and score of 170+ up front, we should get >10 with these two teams.

an early marker is the spread on Sporting index is 11.5 -12.5 atm

[Tal]

Closest thing yet to a Tal Tip for Fred...

Prix due l'Arc due Triomphe is not until October but the antepost markets are up and available. Given that Fred just had some success with a very similar cast list, the horses should be fresh in Fred's mind.

I am proposing an antepost bet on NATHANIEL, who is around 9-1.

Firstly, why that horse? He's won it before and gets better throughout the season (he needs runs). The Arc is a fast paced race (much more so than in the UK, where there are usually more canny tactics) and Nathaniel likes to be up near the front, so as to stay out of trouble.

He will benefit from the weekend run and, in my view, is a better horse than Fred's clever pick. He also likes to rail and if he can, that tends to be quite a good position for staying out of trouble - running at pace, the horses don't hug the rail quite as much. He's not likely to be boxed in if he's towards the front in any event.

The pace will suit and he loves the course.

Why back now? Here's the key: the favourite is Camelot. Aiden O'Brien is going for the triple crown in the St Ledger and I would be surprised if he risked the Arc. He has only really raced in small field races where you can be anywhere in the pack andnot get into trouble. There is very little room for mistakes in this race - as Nijinsky found out - and O'Brien Junior has yet to convince me that he is wily enough to negotiate a cluttered pack. Camelot won't run from the front and that will bring its own problems.

Camelot can pull out and concentrate on the St Ledger, without any fear of losing the record - he'll very likely win that. If that happens, the odds of the other horses in the race will come down of course.

If he sticks in the Arc, Camelot isn't guaranteed to win by any stretch and Nathaniel will give him a very good run (I like the horse, so maybe I'm a touch biased in saying I think Nathaniel would win anyway).

The big risk with antepost is the obvious: it's ten weeks away and anything can happen in that time. All I can suggest to that is that there is a carrot of the favourite pulling out in that time, offsetting the risk.

I'll happily leave it to the thread racing experts as to whether Fred invests (incl whether E/W is a better bet - I'd suggest win only but open to consideration) and, if so, to what level. I'm sure that tying up money is undesirable so any bet could be reduced to reflect that.

Is it worth £20?

[DungBeetle]

"The Bolton value is with N'Gog @ 25s if he stays. Sordell and Davies expected to play a bit wider at times."

Think I'd rather be on Sordell at the same price?  Think Bolton will win the league and he's far more prolific than N'Gog (albeit at a lower level)

[Doobs]

Closest thing yet to a Tal Tip for Fred...

Prix due l'Arc due Triomphe is not until October but the antepost markets are up and available. Given that Fred just had some success with a very similar cast list, the horses should be fresh in Fred's mind.

I am proposing an antepost bet on NATHANIEL, who is around 9-1.

Firstly, why that horse? He's won it before and gets better throughout the season (he needs runs). The Arc is a fast paced race (much more so than in the UK, where there are usually more canny tactics) and Nathaniel likes to be up near the front, so as to stay out of trouble.

He will benefit from the weekend run and, in my view, is a better horse than Fred's clever pick. He also likes to rail and if he can, that tends to be quite a good position for staying out of trouble - running at pace, the horses don't hug the rail quite as much. He's not likely to be boxed in if he's towards the front in any event.

The pace will suit and he loves the course.

Why back now? Here's the key: the favourite is Camelot. Aiden O'Brien is going for the triple crown in the St Ledger and I would be surprised if he risked the Arc. He has only really raced in small field races where you can be anywhere in the pack andnot get into trouble. There is very little room for mistakes in this race - as Nijinsky found out - and O'Brien Junior has yet to convince me that he is wily enough to negotiate a cluttered pack. Camelot won't run from the front and that will bring its own problems.

Camelot can pull out and concentrate on the St Ledger, without any fear of losing the record - he'll very likely win that. If that happens, the odds of the other horses in the race will come down of course.

If he sticks in the Arc, Camelot isn't guaranteed to win by any stretch and Nathaniel will give him a very good run (I like the horse, so maybe I'm a touch biased in saying I think Nathaniel would win anyway).

The big risk with antepost is the obvious: it's ten weeks away and anything can happen in that time. All I can suggest to that is that there is a carrot of the favourite pulling out in that time, offsetting the risk.

I'll happily leave it to the thread racing experts as to whether Fred invests (incl whether E/W is a better bet - I'd suggest win only but open to consideration) and, if so, to what level. I'm sure that tying up money is undesirable so any bet could be reduced to reflect that.

Is it worth £20?

Nathaniel hasn't won it before and has never raced on the course before.  I think you must be getting confused with the King George at Ascot. I was under the impression that there was a real worrry that the connections thought there was a real worry that the races were two close together, so not sure he needs many runs either.

I don't think any of this negates the fact that Nathaniel is clearly one of the best around and there may not be much between him and Danedream, and he is probably improving still.

I think you probably have an angle with Camelot, as the St Leger is a terrible trial for the Arc from memory.  I guess a French horse/filly could come out of the trails to replace Camelot at the head of the field (Valyra has a progreeive profile?).  That seems to happen frequently enough anyway.  So not sure he starts shorter anyway.

Dunno

[Tal]

Closest thing yet to a Tal Tip for Fred...

Prix due l'Arc due Triomphe is not until October but the antepost markets are up and available. Given that Fred just had some success with a very similar cast list, the horses should be fresh in Fred's mind.

I am proposing an antepost bet on NATHANIEL, who is around 9-1.

Firstly, why that horse? He's won it before and gets better throughout the season (he needs runs). The Arc is a fast paced race (much more so than in the UK, where there are usually more canny tactics) and Nathaniel likes to be up near the front, so as to stay out of trouble.

He will benefit from the weekend run and, in my view, is a better horse than Fred's clever pick. He also likes to rail and if he can, that tends to be quite a good position for staying out of trouble - running at pace, the horses don't hug the rail quite as much. He's not likely to be boxed in if he's towards the front in any event.

The pace will suit and he loves the course.

Why back now? Here's the key: the favourite is Camelot. Aiden O'Brien is going for the triple crown in the St Ledger and I would be surprised if he risked the Arc. He has only really raced in small field races where you can be anywhere in the pack andnot get into trouble. There is very little room for mistakes in this race - as Nijinsky found out - and O'Brien Junior has yet to convince me that he is wily enough to negotiate a cluttered pack. Camelot won't run from the front and that will bring its own problems.

Camelot can pull out and concentrate on the St Ledger, without any fear of losing the record - he'll very likely win that. If that happens, the odds of the other horses in the race will come down of course.

If he sticks in the Arc, Camelot isn't guaranteed to win by any stretch and Nathaniel will give him a very good run (I like the horse, so maybe I'm a touch biased in saying I think Nathaniel would win anyway).

The big risk with antepost is the obvious: it's ten weeks away and anything can happen in that time. All I can suggest to that is that there is a carrot of the favourite pulling out in that time, offsetting the risk.

I'll happily leave it to the thread racing experts as to whether Fred invests (incl whether E/W is a better bet - I'd suggest win only but open to consideration) and, if so, to what level. I'm sure that tying up money is undesirable so any bet could be reduced to reflect that.

Is it worth £20?

Nathaniel hasn't won it before and has never raced on the course before.  I think you must be getting confused with the King George at Ascot. I was under the impression that there was a real worrry that the connections thought there was a real worry that the races were two close together, so not sure he needs many runs either.

I don't think any of this negates the fact that Nathaniel is clearly one of the best around and there may not be much between him and Danedream, and he is probably improving still.

I think you probably have an angle with Camelot, as the St Leger is a terrible trial for the Arc from memory.  I guess a French horse/filly could come out of the trails to replace Camelot at the head of the field (Valyra has a progreeive profile?).  That seems to happen frequently enough anyway.  So not sure he starts shorter anyway.

Dunno

FFS you are right. A case of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing. What a tool. No intention to defraud, I promise!

He was listed for the Prix de l'Arc last year but pulled out because of the ground. That would be another risk but that's the same for any horse.

I'll humbly let the grown ups decide from here and learn to keep my views to myself unless I actually know what I'm talking about!

[Doobs]

Closest thing yet to a Tal Tip for Fred...

Prix due l'Arc due Triomphe is not until October but the antepost markets are up and available. Given that Fred just had some success with a very similar cast list, the horses should be fresh in Fred's mind.

I am proposing an antepost bet on NATHANIEL, who is around 9-1.

Firstly, why that horse? He's won it before and gets better throughout the season (he needs runs). The Arc is a fast paced race (much more so than in the UK, where there are usually more canny tactics) and Nathaniel likes to be up near the front, so as to stay out of trouble.

He will benefit from the weekend run and, in my view, is a better horse than Fred's clever pick. He also likes to rail and if he can, that tends to be quite a good position for staying out of trouble - running at pace, the horses don't hug the rail quite as much. He's not likely to be boxed in if he's towards the front in any event.

The pace will suit and he loves the course.

Why back now? Here's the key: the favourite is Camelot. Aiden O'Brien is going for the triple crown in the St Ledger and I would be surprised if he risked the Arc. He has only really raced in small field races where you can be anywhere in the pack andnot get into trouble. There is very little room for mistakes in this race - as Nijinsky found out - and O'Brien Junior has yet to convince me that he is wily enough to negotiate a cluttered pack. Camelot won't run from the front and that will bring its own problems.

Camelot can pull out and concentrate on the St Ledger, without any fear of losing the record - he'll very likely win that. If that happens, the odds of the other horses in the race will come down of course.

If he sticks in the Arc, Camelot isn't guaranteed to win by any stretch and Nathaniel will give him a very good run (I like the horse, so maybe I'm a touch biased in saying I think Nathaniel would win anyway).

The big risk with antepost is the obvious: it's ten weeks away and anything can happen in that time. All I can suggest to that is that there is a carrot of the favourite pulling out in that time, offsetting the risk.

I'll happily leave it to the thread racing experts as to whether Fred invests (incl whether E/W is a better bet - I'd suggest win only but open to consideration) and, if so, to what level. I'm sure that tying up money is undesirable so any bet could be reduced to reflect that.

Is it worth £20?

Nathaniel hasn't won it before and has never raced on the course before.  I think you must be getting confused with the King George at Ascot. I was under the impression that there was a real worrry that the connections thought there was a real worry that the races were two close together, so not sure he needs many runs either.

I don't think any of this negates the fact that Nathaniel is clearly one of the best around and there may not be much between him and Danedream, and he is probably improving still.

I think you probably have an angle with Camelot, as the St Leger is a terrible trial for the Arc from memory.  I guess a French horse/filly could come out of the trails to replace Camelot at the head of the field (Valyra has a progreeive profile?).  That seems to happen frequently enough anyway.  So not sure he starts shorter anyway.

Dunno

FFS you are right. A case of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing. What a tool. No intention to defraud, I promise!

He was listed for the Prix de l'Arc last year but pulled out because of the ground. That would be another risk but that's the same for any horse.

I'll humbly let the grown ups decide from here and learn to keep my views to myself unless I actually know what I'm talking about!

I didn't intend to imply that you meant to defraud.  I just assumed it was a mistake.  I don't think it is a bad bet, I think the horse could still be improving, and could easily get better than Danedream.

The King George was a great race, best King George in some time

[Tal]

Lol I didn't take it to mean that either! Was just a jocular aside. I am doing well today!

Now where did I put that shovel..?

[rfgqqabc]

Note for MereNovice to check

T20 Qtrs tomorrow Somerset v Essex

Good weather

Taunton a small ground, very six friendly

Two big hitting teams..Compton, Hildreth, Napier, Ten Doeschate etc

edit, Bopara available too

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/friends-life-t20/somerset-v-essex/total-6s

Looking to have the overs on sixes if the quote is no higher than 10, when it comes up.


T20 Group matches at Taunton

1 six sixes, 120 scored only   bad weather
2 nine sixes, 140 chased down ok weather
3 ten sixes, 180 chased down good weather
4 two sixes, 140 chased down bad weather
5 rained off
6 ten sixes, 190 highest innings good weather


If we plug in good weather, and score of 170+ up front, we should get >10 with these two teams.

an early marker is the spread on Sporting index is 11.5 -12.5 atm

Ladbrokes 4/6 over 10.5 and 11/10 under
Hills 5/6 both over and under 11.5
Sporting Bet have priced up the market a bit differently. They did have it priced up strangely, but I just took 19/10 on 10-14 and the price has changed after that. Gone 7/4 under 9, 7/4 over 14 and 7/4 10-14. Thoughts how its been priced up?

[Dubai]

looks priced right to me

Think Essex are big at 11-8 given Ravi and Cook back

11 could be

Pettini
Cook
Shah
Bopara
Tendo
Foster
Franklin
Smith
Napier
Phillips
Masters

If Shah isnt fit, Topley could play instead and add 4th proper bowler. Looks very strong on paper and Somerset are weaker than last few years

[Dubai]

Had text saying Shah fit- think Essex are defo a bet. No way with that 11 are they 11-8 shots to anyone

Recommend £80 @11-8 bet365

[TightEnd]

The sixes bet is priced in. Needed under 10 as the pivot price.

[MereNovice]

Apologies for the lack of responses earlier, I've been offline.

[MereNovice]

Had text saying Shah fit- think Essex are defo a bet. No way with that 11 are they 11-8 shots to anyone

Recommend £80 @11-8 bet365

On.

Couldn't bring myself to put the whole £80 on against Somerset at home. I hope that doesn't hex the bet.
On the positive side, I got a slightly better price.

Dubai   Betfair   Cricket   t20: Somerset v Essex   Essex   2.46   £50

Essex   2.46   £50.00   £73.00