Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

My actual tip, Kamar Aiken, currently has 32 receiving yards. The team is losing in the fourth quarter, so he's going to get another target or two in the game and the team needs to get downfield.

We are on over 60.5, I believe?

[Tal]

My actual tip, Kamar Aiken, currently has 32 receiving yards. The team is losing in the fourth quarter, so he's going to get another target or two in the game and the team needs to get downfield.

We are on over 60.5, I believe?

Finished with 51.



Baltimore outrubbished Miami.

[Tal]

356 yards for Carson Palmer today.

David Johnson had 95 rushing yards and a touchdown (thank you, Tighty)

Injuries, dodgy referees and coaches losing their marbles are combining to give us the most unpredictable set of NFL games. Great work in this thread to help us all make a few bob.

[TightEnd]

Like to thank Robbie Gould for the field goal miss ad time expired. The 49ers won in overtime to go off the bottom of their division....

[rfgqqabc]

Those aren't the only reasons to place doubles. If you have an edge in each individual bet then by placing them in doubles you are multiplying that edge.

Wow, this is like....huge aha moment! I always thought that because the prices were the same the EV was the same and multiples only jacked up the variance which is what makes them so appealing the ice creams looking to hit the jackpot

So whenever we have identified more than one profitable bet with the same bookie we should always be looking to get multiples on? Isn't this a huge rick in the bookies strategy to weed out winners? If in their view multiples = punter (which is a view that is probably correct for the vast majority of their customers) then by taking every opportunity we can to put multiples on we should be able to increase the EV of the bets while also keeping accounts unrestricted? It'll increase the variance but assuming that we stake correctly then thats not really an issue.

This is the EV calculation that I came up with for my two NFL bets, would be great if someone could double check it for me:

Getting 11/8 about a true 5/6 shot in a £100 single nets us a profit of £137.50 the 54.5% of the time that it wins and loses us £100 the 45.5% of the time that it loses so EV = (0.545*137.50)-(0.455*100) = £29.44

Getting 11/10 about a true 10/11 shot in a £100 single nets us a profit of £110 the 52.4% of the time that it wins and loses us £100 the 47.6% of the time that it loses so EV = (0.524*110)-(0.476*100) = £10.04

So the EV of placing two £100 singles is £39.48

£200 double on an 11/8 and an 11/10 shot we profit £797.50 the 28.3% of the time that we land the double and we lose £200 the 71.7% of the time that we don't so EV = (0.286*797.50)-(0.714*200) = £85.29

Excellent post Dan, I think I understood the concept but great to see the maths in front and seeing the sheer ev difference. One leg down too

[Tal]

Like to thank Robbie Gould for the field goal miss ad time expired. The 49ers won in overtime to go off the bottom of their division....

Backed the Giants +2.5 who were 20-10 ahead with 5 minutes left. They conspired to concede 10 points, go to overtime, then miss a kick to tie and win me my bet.

This game is stupid sometimes.

[aaron1867]

Love watching the snooker finals on a Sunday, but bloody hell, this Liang, has made me switch off. He takes so long.

Makes Ebdon look like a fast player

[vegaslover]

Like to thank Robbie Gould for the field goal miss ad time expired. The 49ers won in overtime to go off the bottom of their division....

Sigh, not the first time this season he done it either.

[fatcatstu]

Would anyone care to explain to me just what on earth has gone on in the NFL this weekend?? Absolute carnage.

In other news, we need 5 more yards for Chandler to get over his yards for us. Unfortunately, Mr Brady seems to like passing it to the other team today.

 Winning just one bet would be nice today, come on Scott lad!

[fatcatstu]

Chandler catches a 14 yard TD and romps over his 40.5 yards.

[Doobs]

Not sure if this would be a palp but Hills at 11/8 Seahawks -1.5 @ Vikings

Generally available prices are between 5/6 and 19/20

Rec £200

Edit: OP says hills is fine for Tikay to get on, is this info currently accurate? It mentions that fred doesn't have 888 but this account was made recently if I remember correctly?

They look like they have messed the lot up.  They make them odds on favourites but +1.5 is evens.

I think they wanted to start at -2, but put the sign in wrong, so every price is for a score that is 4 points away.  I'd be very wary of putting £200 on.

Does the price still being there 4 hours later weaken their case for a possible palp?

In other Hills news, they are standout best price at 11/10 for Eagles +8.5 @ Patriots, everyone else in the 5/6-10/11 range. Eagles +9.5 trades at 8/11 on Betfair

Rec £100

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/point-spread

Left the apprentice in charge, should do a £100 double?


 

Palp double never in danger. 

[Tal]

Our man made a few yards on the those around him, particularly on second place Philip Rivers, who has no one to throw to and no one blocking in front of him.

1.Tom Brady 3912
2.Philip Rivers 3713
3.Carson Palmer 3693
4.Drew Brees 3482
5.Matt Ryan 3481

Tom Brady is still being Tom Brady. We probably need an injury or a miracle for the top spot. With four games left, Palmer would get 5,000 yards on his current average, which will surely see a return. Brady won a judicial appeal to overturn his two game ban...which was given to him on appeal to the NFL Commissioner, after he had been given a four game ban, following his alleged complicity in the deflating of balls in last season's playoff game against the Colts.

[tikay]

Our man made a few yards on the those around him, particularly on second place Philip Rivers, who has no one to throw to and no one blocking in front of him.

1.Tom Brady 3912
2.Philip Rivers 3713
3.Carson Palmer 3693
4.Drew Brees 3482
5.Matt Ryan 3481

Tom Brady is still being Tom Brady. We probably need an injury or a miracle for the top spot. With four games left, Palmer would get 5,000 yards on his current average, which will surely see a return. Brady won a judicial appeal to overturn his two game ban...which was given to him on appeal to the NFL Commissioner, after he had been given a four game ban, following his alleged complicity in the deflating of balls in last season's playoff game against the Colts.

Good stuff Tal, 1st seems impossible, but we have a great shot at the place money.

We missed your coup at Wolverhampton on Saturday night - well done.

Given your diverse array of sporting interests, including football, NFL, snooker & horses, not to mention SCD & chess, when you get up on a lazy Saturday morning, in what order of priority do you read stuff?   

[Tal]

I usually start Saturday with football. I just don't bet much on it.

Sport? Marvellous.

[tikay]

I usually start Saturday with football. I just don't bet much on it.

Probably just as well this weekend, Xmas came early for the bookies, who got the absolute lot on both Saturday & Sunday thanks to Man U, Man C, Chelsea & Liverpool.