Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

One stat that is interesting, as Fred approached it's 4th Birthday in just under a month.

Total staked to date is £156,247, in just shy of 4 years. Total staked in 2015 was running at a much lower annual rate - £28,346 - & yet the 2015 ROI was 14%. Is this just due to outliers, or does it tell us something?

I can only speak personally but i put up less bets now but the ones i put up are probably all max bet or close to max bet level.  I could put up 50 bets a day most days all with small edges which i bet/lay but i chose just to save posting here for the ones with the bigger edges generally now.  This will def fit with the pattern of lower volume and higher roi we have seen.

[tikay]

One stat that is interesting, as Fred approached it's 4th Birthday in just under a month.

Total staked to date is £156,247, in just shy of 4 years. Total staked in 2015 was running at a much lower annual rate - £28,346 - & yet the 2015 ROI was 14%. Is this just due to outliers, or does it tell us something?

I can only speak personally but i put up less bets now but the ones i put up are probably all max bet or close to max bet level.  I could put up 50 bets a day most days all with small edges which i bet but i chose just to save posting here for the ones with the bigger edges generally now.  This will def fit with the pattern of lower volume and higher roi we have seen.

Well personally, I much prefer "fewer but better" bets.

Going back, 15 years now, to my ice cream punting days, I HAD to bet every day. If ever there was a sign of an ice-cream, it's that "I MUST have a bet every day" compulsion/addiction.

For a pro, of course, it's different. They work on thin margins & volume.

[arbboy]

One stat that is interesting, as Fred approached it's 4th Birthday in just under a month.

Total staked to date is £156,247, in just shy of 4 years. Total staked in 2015 was running at a much lower annual rate - £28,346 - & yet the 2015 ROI was 14%. Is this just due to outliers, or does it tell us something?

I can only speak personally but i put up less bets now but the ones i put up are probably all max bet or close to max bet level.  I could put up 50 bets a day most days all with small edges which i bet but i chose just to save posting here for the ones with the bigger edges generally now.  This will def fit with the pattern of lower volume and higher roi we have seen.

Well personally, I much prefer "fewer but better" bets.

Going back, 15 years now, to my ice cream punting days, I HAD to bet every day. If ever there was a sign of an ice-cream, it's that "I MUST have a bet every day" compulsion/addiction.

For a pro, of course, it's different. They work on hoovering up the bets that ice creams must have every day because 'they must have a bet every day' even though they have no edge.

FYP

[tikay]

I am reminded that Fred has two big positions to get 2016 off to a flyer.

I think we have a "live" World Darts bet at 50/1 (now 7/1?).

And we have that NFL chap, Carlson Palmer, in that "who can throw the ball furthest" thing, that's a monster price, too. Last I heard we were almost certain of place money, & in with a shot at scooping.

Think both bets mature, one way or another, this weekend.   

[arbboy]

I am reminded that Fred has two big positions to get 2016 off to a flyer.

I think we have a "live" World Darts bet at 50/1 (now 7/1?).

And we have that NFL chap, Carlson Palmer, in that "who can throw the ball furthest" thing, that's a monster price, too. Last I heard we were almost certain of place money, & in with a shot at scooping.

Think both bets mature, one way or another, this weekend.   

Pretty sure Tighty said we got 2 50/1 or 40/1 bullets left in the darts still.  Barney and Wright?

[tikay]

I am reminded that Fred has two big positions to get 2016 off to a flyer.

I think we have a "live" World Darts bet at 50/1 (now 7/1?).

And we have that NFL chap, Carlson Palmer, in that "who can throw the ball furthest" thing, that's a monster price, too. Last I heard we were almost certain of place money, & in with a shot at scooping.

Think both bets mature, one way or another, this weekend.   

Pretty sure Tighty said we got 2 50/1 or 40/1 bullets left in the darts still.  Barney and Wright?

How can we possibly lose?

Amazing how these things open up when two of the jollies get turned over, in MvG & Taylor. Nice to get against these guys sometimes.

We do have some seriously good Darts judges here.

[TightEnd]

for those of us channel hopping this afternoon, anyone get any thoughts on the televised races later?

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/gary-anderson-v-james-wade/handicaps

Ok let's start the year off with a bang.  I just can't have Anderson as big as 4/9 v Wade.  Been discussed previously.  Wade only player in the event left who still hasn't averaged 96 in any game.  I don't buy all the hype from Bristow he is suddenly a 100 average man and smashing in 180s.  Would be more than happy to smash into the 4/9 as close to max bet levels.  

Put a bit more meat on the bone (we can get on at sportingbet i think).  £200 Anderson -1.5 sets at 3/4 looks a cracking wager to me.  Don't think we will get bigger on the machine after commission.  Couldn't put anyone off backing Ando 5-0 either at double figure prices who those who prefer a working man's price.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/gary-anderson-v-james-wade/handicaps

Ok let's start the year off with a bang.  I just can't have Anderson as big as 4/9 v Wade.  Been discussed previously.  Wade only player in the event left who still hasn't averaged 96 in any game.  I don't buy all the hype from Bristow he is suddenly a 100 average man and smashing in 180s.  Would be more than happy to smash into the 4/9 as close to max bet levels. 

Put a bit more meat on the bone (we can get on at sportingbet i think).  £200 Anderson -1.5 sets at 3/4 looks a cracking wager to me.  Don't think we will get bigger on the machine after commission.  Couldn't put anyone off backing Ando 5-0 either at double figure prices who those who prefer a working man's price.

no sportingbet at the moment

4/6 elsewhere or 4/9 outright at william hill?

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/gary-anderson-v-james-wade/handicaps

Ok let's start the year off with a bang.  I just can't have Anderson as big as 4/9 v Wade.  Been discussed previously.  Wade only player in the event left who still hasn't averaged 96 in any game.  I don't buy all the hype from Bristow he is suddenly a 100 average man and smashing in 180s.  Would be more than happy to smash into the 4/9 as close to max bet levels. 

Put a bit more meat on the bone (we can get on at sportingbet i think).  £200 Anderson -1.5 sets at 3/4 looks a cracking wager to me.  Don't think we will get bigger on the machine after commission.  Couldn't put anyone off backing Ando 5-0 either at double figure prices who those who prefer a working man's price.

no sportingbet at the moment

4/6 elsewhere or 4/9 outright at william hill?

I can deposit if you wish, Rich?

[horseplayer]

As is my want i have spent a few hours looking at the Meydan card this morning!

Basically it is impossible bar the opener at 12pm. The competitiveness is really picking up now with De Kock and a few others getting their runners out for the upcoming carnival.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/world/meydan/12:00/winner

Those with short memories will remember TOBACO on debut a few weeks ago at Jebel Ali. I suggested backing it at 4/6 it got beat at 1/4.

Inn hindsight considering it missed the kick looked green it ran on really well late and bar the newcomer with a very fancy workout this would be favorite in any other maiden here.

BLUE CREEK has been smashed up after impressing in his trial here, being by dirt loving sire Street Cry likely to love the surface. The one thing that is making me lean towards Tobaco is the fact Charlie Appleby was 0-29 runners here last season, he has probably learnt since then but if that wont put you off a odds on debutant nothing will.

Superb each way shape suggest £50 each way TOBACO 5/2 (victor)

This could drift a bit more but time is ticking so i am happy to take the 5/2 for fred purposes.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/gary-anderson-v-james-wade/handicaps

Ok let's start the year off with a bang.  I just can't have Anderson as big as 4/9 v Wade.  Been discussed previously.  Wade only player in the event left who still hasn't averaged 96 in any game.  I don't buy all the hype from Bristow he is suddenly a 100 average man and smashing in 180s.  Would be more than happy to smash into the 4/9 as close to max bet levels. 

Put a bit more meat on the bone (we can get on at sportingbet i think).  £200 Anderson -1.5 sets at 3/4 looks a cracking wager to me.  Don't think we will get bigger on the machine after commission.  Couldn't put anyone off backing Ando 5-0 either at double figure prices who those who prefer a working man's price.

no sportingbet at the moment

4/6 elsewhere or 4/9 outright at william hill?

I can deposit if you wish, Rich?

thanks (and sorry)

[TightEnd]

As is my want i have spent a few hours looking at the Meydan card this morning!

Basically it is impossible bar the opener at 12pm. The competitiveness is really picking up now with De Kock and a few others getting their runners out for the upcoming carnival.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/world/meydan/12:00/winner

Those with short memories will remember TOBACO on debut a few weeks ago at Jebel Ali. I suggested backing it at 4/6 it got beat at 1/4.

Inn hindsight considering it missed the kick looked green it ran on really well late and bar the newcomer with a very fancy workout this would be favorite in any other maiden here.

BLUE CREEK has been smashed up after impressing in his trial here, being by dirt loving sire Street Cry likely to love the surface. The one thing that is making me lean towards Tobaco is the fact Charlie Appleby was 0-29 runners here last season, he has probably learnt since then but if that wont put you off a odds on debutant nothing will.

Superb each way shape suggest £50 each way TOBACO 5/2 (victor)

This could drift a bit more but time is ticking so i am happy to take the 5/2 for fred purposes.

we were rejected at £50ew and £25ew by bet victor

[arbboy]

As is my want i have spent a few hours looking at the Meydan card this morning!

Basically it is impossible bar the opener at 12pm. The competitiveness is really picking up now with De Kock and a few others getting their runners out for the upcoming carnival.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/world/meydan/12:00/winner

Those with short memories will remember TOBACO on debut a few weeks ago at Jebel Ali. I suggested backing it at 4/6 it got beat at 1/4.

Inn hindsight considering it missed the kick looked green it ran on really well late and bar the newcomer with a very fancy workout this would be favorite in any other maiden here.

BLUE CREEK has been smashed up after impressing in his trial here, being by dirt loving sire Street Cry likely to love the surface. The one thing that is making me lean towards Tobaco is the fact Charlie Appleby was 0-29 runners here last season, he has probably learnt since then but if that wont put you off a odds on debutant nothing will.

Superb each way shape suggest £50 each way TOBACO 5/2 (victor)

This could drift a bit more but time is ticking so i am happy to take the 5/2 for fred purposes.

we were rejected at £50ew and £25ew by bet victor

Not worth risking an account for imo.  We can get 4/1+ on the win and only slightly shorter on the place on bf at 2/5 you might easily get 1/2 (the e/w place price).  We are giving up far too much on the win compared to what we gain on the place to bet it ew.  Add in the likelihood of potentially losing an account for the bet it doesn't look a bet to me with the firms.  If we going to bet it the exchange win and place is the place to go.

[TightEnd]

the outright darts bets we have, per the overnight discussion

PDC World Championship   RVB   40/1   20 £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
PDC World championship   wright   50-1   15

for tonight we also have

Van Barneveld v Smith   smith    11/10   50
wright v lewis most 180s   wright   9/4   80