Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Over 57.5 is charlton (unfortnately) , see the line above.

[TightEnd]

the RVB bet is with The Dazzler, he'll have to confirm, if necessary, that i have recorded the e/w terms correctly

[TightEnd]

bury v chesterfield season match bet   bury   8/11   144

bury 33, chesterfield 24 at the half way stage

will start monitoring that one properly too

[arbboy]

Anderson is 8-0 v wade in their last 8 meetings they have just said on sky.  Not a big h2h stats follower tbh but that is interesting.

[rinswun]

Thoughts on Wolves to beat Brighton this afternoon? Perhaps draw no bet?

Brighton look to have been in a false position all season to me - not won a game by more than a single goal all season, which is pretty incred for a team in 4th at this stage of the year. They now have mounting injury problems all over the place but particularly in defense which has been their strength over the past few seasons. They're also unable to play on-loan Rajiv van la Parra, who had been one of their better offensive outlets, against his home club.

Wolves had a bad result against Sheff Wed before Christmas but two positive wins since. Their results have been substantially better on the road than at home too, and they've only lost one of their last six away (3 wins).

Of course the bookies know all this but is 6/4 DNB a fair price?

[TheDazzler]

the RVB bet is with The Dazzler, he'll have to confirm, if necessary, that i have recorded the e/w terms correctly

We got the bet on more than 6 months ago and I can't see the details of the bet.
The bet is definitely on, it's in the 'my bets' tab but it needs to be within the last 6 months for me to see the terms.
So I hope you're right Tighty with the e/way terms!

[vegaslover]

on the subject of the NFL

week 17, most of the play off positions decided, a lot of players have been placed on IR this week as teams out of contention try out fringe players etc

the games where we know teams will be flat out for 60 minutes

* minnesota at green bay. winners get the number 3 seed, losers get the wild card

* jets at buffalo. jets win and into the play offs as a wild card

* arizona v seattle and carolina v tampa..carolina win the number 1 seed and home advantage with a win, arizona can get it if they win and carolina lose

thats about it, so we would expect to see less bets recommended this week, i think especially on player over/unders

for example of one other match i think is interesting

dallas -4 at home to washington. the price reflects that washington have won the division but

a) dallas most certainly do not want to win this game, but won't say so publically. doing so could drop them from 4 to 8 in the draft. losing may see them as high as 2. they need to be as high as possible to draft romo's successor and there are only 2 QBs going early in this draft (goff and lynch, and cleveland is taking one of them)

dallas have put dez on IR this week, a clear sign that its onto next season's business

b) washington are at least beginning by playing cousins and the starters, and want to keep winning into the play offs

i think washington +4 is a great bet, on an unpromising rota of games this weekend

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/washington-redskins-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

Redskins-Cowboys is a massive derby too. Fans of Redskins will be demanding to celebrate playoffs by beating the Cowgirls

[TightEnd]

Thoughts on Wolves to beat Brighton this afternoon? Perhaps draw no bet?

Brighton look to have been in a false position all season to me - not won a game by more than a single goal all season, which is pretty incred for a team in 4th at this stage of the year. They now have mounting injury problems all over the place but particularly in defense which has been their strength over the past few seasons. They're also unable to play on-loan Rajiv van la Parra, who had been one of their better offensive outlets, against his home club.

Wolves had a bad result against Sheff Wed before Christmas but two positive wins since. Their results have been substantially better on the road than at home too, and they've only lost one of their last six away (3 wins).

Of course the bookies know all this but is 6/4 DNB a fair price?

no other views given on this



may help

[Chompy]

if you want to see the 71 open bets going into 2016, the spreadsheet at

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=34

is as clean as it will be, with no bets settled yet

£3.9k of positions

EV of? above £3.9k? below?

If anyone has a few minutes to spare, that's well worth a peruse.

Some bets, with hindsight, look amazing.

Leicester City, £50 @ 3/1 to be relegated will have looked a great bet at the time, especially considering last season's great escape.

How are the "Jockey" bets getting on?

Who is "P Glenister" (next Top Gear Presenter)?

QPR need to pull their finger out.

Arsenal, FA Cup & EPL double please.

Go Watford.

Dicky Johnson is past the post barring a broken leg or some such.

Philip Glenister is still a possible, but who knows? They're keeping it all very hush hush.

We also still have the Guus Hiiddink profit to add in once they've played ten games under him.

[rinswun]

I pulled the trigger but maybe a watching brief for Fred given lack of views.

[nuros]

if you want to see the 71 open bets going into 2016, the spreadsheet at

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=34

is as clean as it will be, with no bets settled yet

£3.9k of positions

EV of? above £3.9k? below?

Are the e/w terms on the barney bet right?  Betfred offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 back in may for the darts?  Seems odd.  If so we got £10 on barney at 10/1 to win tonight effectively.

Kelly is a loser on the ante post RP naps table bet btw.  That finished on 30th December.  Hopeless effort by Kelly over the year.

I have just gone through most of the easy to calc/bigger ante post positions and their ev value is close to £3k.  plenty of the smaller bets i have just totally ignored in that calc.  The £3.9k figure is wrong as well.  Watford points have a £355 stake next to them should be zero effectively as there is no lose possible as they stand on 29 points already.  Similar to the championship points total of 57.5 (the team isn't mentioned).  This needs to be adjusted as it shows a false potential loss figure.  These two alone count for £500 of the ante post £3.9k totals alongside £350 of 'current' bets on the darts which will be settled today.  So the 'ante post' figure is close to £3k in reality and the EV of that £3k book is larger imo.  

Pretty sure the Barney bet ew terms will be 1/2 1,2.   Happy new year guys!

[arbboy]

Vul not to cop the 11/1 ando 5-0 if anyone played it with him throwing first and only having to break wade twice.  Wade performed miracles to hold his throw in that fourth set.

[TightEnd]

        Bet Type: Single
            Gary Anderson v James Wade Match Handicap - Sets
                Gary Anderson(-1.5) 3/4
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 350.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    200.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 200.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 350.00 GBP

Winner, 5-1

A clinic.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Cheers Arb had my biggest bet of the year on that😜

[arbboy]

Cheers Arb had my biggest bet of the year on that😜

Ando thanking Bristow in the interview.  Think we should all thank Bristow as well for talking so much bullshit about Wade to get the price we got.