Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Thanks for another great Report, Rich.

Well done & thanks - yet again - to hector for the tennis job, & to Matty for the cherries.

A very rare miss by Mr Nelly on the cricket, about time he gave us a loser.

All good.

[Karabiner]

It's the first round of The China Open snooker today in Barnsley.

The 64 winners of those first round matches travel to China to play the rest of the tournament.

Might we expect some "strange" results from players who'd rather not travel?

[Chompy]

We know how many games Hiddink has had at the helm now? Must be very close to the required ten?

Westley has sayed there will be surprises on the 'shape and personnel front', with our RB and one CB suspendo after some idiotic refereeing at the weekend (ref had officiated 17 L1 games before that and never been in charge of an away win). Could be a late bet here in the anytime scorer market, especially with the Boingers light at the back too.

[TightEnd]

We know how many games Hiddink has had at the helm now? Must be very close to the required ten?

it settled and was reported as a winner last week

[hector62]

Afternoon Tighty.

I think we can support Delbonnis again today against Almagro. Apart from first set double faults against Fognini Delbonnis played well. Almagro is not as strong a player as Fognini and we still get odds against.

Suggest £15 Delbonnis @ 11/10  with hills and betfred.

[TightEnd]

Afternoon Tighty.

I think we can support Delbonnis again today against Almagro. Apart from first set double faults against Fognini Delbonnis played well. Almagro is not as strong a player as Fognini and we still get odds against.

Suggest £15 Delbonnis @ 11/10  with hills and betfred.

Federico Delbonis Delbonis v Almagro Winner
11/10
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £31.50

[DMorgan]

Premier League Darts back tomorrow

First up is Michael Smith vs Robert Thornton

In all TV tournaments from the start of 2015, Robert Thornton has averaged 92.37 and Smith 94.11 so not a lot to choose between them in terms of scoring. One the doubles Smith has an average highest checkout of 96.52 against Thorntons 109.39 so Thornton is clearly better on the doubles. If Smith was a better scorer then this could be accounted for by Thornton simply having more shots at big checkouts but they come in about the same on the averages and almost identical on the 180s too (Thornton 0.261 180s per leg vs Smith 0.244 180s per leg) so I would make it about a dead heat, perhaps Thornton a small favourite.

In the Draw No Bet market we can get 7/4 Thornton from Spoils and 6/4 general, another market over reaction to Thornton being whitewashed last week by Chizzy imo

Rec £100 Thornton DNB vs Smith @6/4 or better

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/michael-smith-v-robert-thornton/draw-no-bet

As above the 180s stats are 0.261 180s per leg for Thornton and 0.244 180s per leg for Smith but Loral are offering 11/8 Thornton most 180s draw no bet so should be getting involved there too.

Rec £100 Thornton Most 180s DNB @ 11/8 with Loral

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/michael-smith-v-robert-thornton/most-180s-draw-no-bet

The three way handicap 180s markets I'm not totally sure about with the draw in there too. They're very close so the draw on 180s at 9/2 general appeals but I haven't finished my model yet for those markets so not putting it up as a rec.

Going through the rest of the card now, probably more to come

[TightEnd]

Unit Stake

        Bet Type: Single
            Michael Smith v Robert Thornton Draw No Bet
                Robert Thornton 6/4
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 250.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP

coral will only lay us £18 on the 180s bet, and they are the only price at the moment, please let me know if it goes up anywhere else

Robert Thornton michael smith v r thornton Most 180s Draw No Bet
11/8
Total Stake: £18.00
Potential Returns: £42.75

[Chompy]

No time to explain but Andrew Fox at 14-1+ to score any time tonight is a bet. £10 please

[DMorgan]

More 180s

Chizzy vs Lewis, the 180s per leg come in a 0.461 for Chizzy and 0.294 for Lewis yet we can get 20/21 with Spoils and 10/11 with SB

Rec £100 Chizzy most 180s vs Lewis @10/11 or better

Taylor vs Wade

Wade props up the pile scoring just 111 180s in 554 legs (0.2.leg), Taylor comes in with 176 in 646 legs for 0.272 per leg but we can get 11/8 about Taylor with Spoils and Shy

I know that Taylor has (had?) a rep for switching a lot but he has been doing less of this from what I've seen and the data goes back 14 months so its still very solid imo

Take the double with Spoils for those that can but Baldys 13/10 on Taylor is good too for Fred

Rec £100 Taylor Most 180s vs Wade @11/8 with Spoils, 10/13 with Baldy

Edit: The market may be over-adjusting to Wades win against MVG last week where he was lights out on the 180s but I'm a reversion to mean guy rather than a form guy, any ideas as to why all of the books make Taylor odds against when the data says that its clearly the other way around?

[TightEnd]

No time to explain but Andrew Fox at 14-1+ to score any time tonight is a bet. £10 please

Andrew Fox Peterborough v West Brom Anytime Goalscorer
18/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £190.00

[TightEnd]

More 180s

Chizzy vs Lewis, the 180s per leg come in a 0.461 for Chizzy and 0.294 for Lewis yet we can get 20/21 with Spoils and 10/11 with SB

Rec £100 Chizzy most 180s vs Lewis @10/11 or better

Taylor vs Wade

Wade props up the pile scoring just 111 180s in 554 legs (0.2.leg), Taylor comes in with 176 in 646 legs for 0.272 per leg but we can get 11/8 about Taylor with Spoils and Shy

I know that Taylor has (had?) a rep for switching a lot but he has been doing less of this from what I've seen and the data goes back 14 months so its still very solid imo

Take the double with Spoils for those that can but Baldys 13/10 on Taylor is good too for Fred

Rec £100 Taylor Most 180s vs Wade @11/8 with Spoils, 10/13 with Baldy

Edit: The market may be over-adjusting to Wades win against MVG last week where he was lights out on the 180s but I'm a reversion to mean guy rather than a form guy, any ideas as to why all of the books make Taylor odds against when the data says that its clearly the other way around?

can you check the second one?

taylor is 5/4 favourite, no 13/10 anywhere?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/james-wade-v-phil-taylor/most-180s

[TightEnd]

        Bet Type: Single
            Adrian Lewis v Dave Chisnall Who Will Hit The Most 180s
                Dave Chisnall 10/11
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 190.91 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 190.91 GBP

[DMorgan]

5/4 is good too

[TightEnd]

        Bet Type: Single
            James Wade v Phil Taylor Who Will Hit The Most 180s
                Phil Taylor 5/4
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 225.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 225.00 GBP