Tips for Tikay

[DMorgan]

Any views on the prices for Wade vs Smith Bazza? Wades price seems big to me. They run pretty close in the averages, Smith seems like the kind of character to be pretty tilted about the whole situation

[nellberg]

fwiw, fantastic straw coloured looking pitch and short boundary for the wanderers tomorrow, at altitude where the ball flies mr nellberg

runs, sixes etc etc

Plenty of markets of interest, just a case of culling it down to the best 1 or 2 I reckon.

My 1st point of call was ABDV. In his last 4 ODI's at Wanderers, he's scored 149 off 44 balls (that's not a typo, he's just a freak), 77 off 47 balls, 128 off 108 balls and 125* off 98 balls. He should be pretty confident of getting runs at this ground, the conditions must suit. In those 4 games he top scored once and tied for top score another time. He was MOTM once and shared the award another time. That means there are runs galore being scored. A South African opener scored a ton in each of those games and there were 9 centuries in total. Amla's last 3 knocks here have been 153, 65 and 122.

Not sure how best to support De Villiers or Amla (or both), options are:

ABDV MOTM 9/1 at 365, 8/1 general                                         Amla MOTM 10 at Betvic
ABDV top Saffer bat is 3/1 at Koral                                            Amla top Saffer bat is 10/3 with sky, 3's generally. He's been price boosted every game so far so could get bigger
ABDV runs line o.u 33.5 is 9/10 at Koral                                    Amla runs line is o/u 30.5 with bet way
ABDV to score 50+ is 11/8 with badbrokes                                Amla to score 50+ is 11/8 with badbrokes

Century in the match is 4/6 with Betvic. In 3 games we've had 5 centuries and a 99. Modern game has changed so that centuries and 300+ scores are commonplace. I'd expect a ton to be scored, but is 4/6 value? If there is a market somewhere for ton in the 1st innings it may be better value?

Can't find a total match 6's market, would be interesting to see what the line in. 23 sixes last year (ABDV hitting 16 would have went over the line on his own), 14 the year before, 19 the time before and 10 in 2012. We're favourites to hit the most 6's, which seems fair as we have guys down to number 10 who can clear the rope.

Not many wickets have been taken in recent games at the Wanderers full stop, but from those that have been taken the spinners haven't been the ones getting the breakthroughs. Benn 0-49, Tahir 1-60, Ashwin 0-58, Jadeja 0-58, Afridi 0-55, Hafeez 0-49, Ajmal 1-62, Sessanayke 1-50, Herath 0-43, Petersen 2-38. Betvic are Evens on Tahir and 4/5 on Rashid for under 1.5 wickets, so based on recent history that looks more than fair. If spin is unlikely to much of a threat, then Tahir, Rashid and Ali could be taken on in each team's top bowler markets.

[TightEnd]

England practiced at the ground today and i saw one comment after Stokes had been doing some range hitting

"this ground isn't big enough for him"

as ball after ball sailed into the banks on either side of the ground

i went to look for total sixes, no market

i went to look for total runs, wanting 350+x 2, no market

as for spinners, the high veldt pitches tend to be quite quick and the ball comes on to the bat (aid stroke making) and as long as the pitch used is new there will be nothing for them to get purchase with, hence they don't tend to take many at centurion and the wanderers

I do like England at odds against tomorrow too. Win toss, bat, put up 350, defend under lights.

[TightEnd]

meanwhile this afternoon in the UAE

1st Semi-final: Gemini Arabians v Sagittarius Strikers

We are on the arabians for the MCL.

[nellberg]

England practiced at the ground today and i saw one comment after Stokes had been doing some range hitting

"this ground isn't big enough for him"

as ball after ball sailed into the banks on either side of the ground

i went to look for total sixes, no market

i went to look for total runs, wanting 350+x 2, no market

as for spinners, the high veldt pitches tend to be quite quick and the ball comes on to the bat (aid stroke making) and as long as the pitch used is new there will be nothing for them to get purchase with, hence they don't tend to take many at centurion and the wanderers

I do like England at odds against tomorrow too. Win toss, bat, put up 350, defend under lights.

You want to take on the spinners, yeh? means hiding behind the sofa every time Rashid and Tahir are on, but based on recent history they'll struggle. They should produce a belter of a pitch, it's "pink day", crowd want 4's and 6's, plenty of action, ball flying around everywhere. Add into the mix that Tahir is bowling like me in my under-13 days and I'd be happy to oppose him, he's been very poor  

I think whoever bats first will get 300+ for sure, then they'll have scoreboard pressure on their side. Then again, teams defending this series and in the recent Australia- India series have been getting 300 and the chasing side have cruised it. Saffers even thought they were looking good to chase down 399 in game 1(!) Not sure if I'm reading too much into it, but they seem to raise their game on pink day, dished out a couple of spankings the last 2 years, won 21/29 ODI's there over the years. Broad coming back should be a boost for England though. I'm undecided.

[nellberg]

Sticking on cricket, Aussies start their 2-match test series in New Zealand tonight. 2 matches isn't ideal for the cream to rise to the top etc, I prefer 4/5 match series but James Pattinson getting injured means that Josh Hazlewood looks a strong pick for top Aussie series bowler. Their attack for the 1st test will be Hazlewood, Jackson Bird. Peter Siddle, Nathan Lyon and Mitchell Marsh.

Hazlewood should be suited to the pitches in NZ. He took 7 wickets in the recent 3-match ODI series over there, 13 wickets in 3 test series back home again them (9 wickets in Adelaide where the pitch had the same characteristics that you'll get in NZ) and 16 wickets at an average of 25.75 on the Ashes tour to England. He's been quoted as saying he learned a lot from that tour over here, about being patient and building up pressure, not looking for the magic ball and losing control. He's now the leader of the attack, will be the go-to man for his skipper to take a wicket and should be very threatening on seaming pitches.

His competition is pretty limited. Siddle is a real workhorse, his role is about control and not going for too many runs. This limits his wicket-taking threat. Bird is a decent swing bowler but not in the class of Hazlewood, and may be replaced for Pattinson in the 2nd test if Patto regains fitness. Lyon is a good test spinner but won't get much assistance from these pitches, and M.Marsh is the 5th bowler, will only bowl a couple of over spells. He's got a bit of a golden arm, and can take wickets, but won't get nearly as many overs as hazlewood.

9/4 with 888 or 365

[TightEnd]

no 9/4 up at the moment

i will check it periodically before play starts

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-australia-tests/tests/top-australia-bowler

[nellberg]

no 9/4 up at the moment

i will check it periodically before play starts

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-australia-tests/tests/top-australia-bowler

It's on the 8 8 8 site at the moment, oddschecker links for them are normally pretty poor, often doesn't show up prices or gives the incorrect market. cricket/international test cricket / series bowler, then Aussies are down at the bottom.

[TightEnd]

ok thanks

we havd £20 at 9/4 Josh H Top Aussie bowler in the tasman series

[Bazzaboy]

Any views on the prices for Wade vs Smith Bazza? Wades price seems big to me. They run pretty close in the averages, Smith seems like the kind of character to be pretty tilted about the whole situation

I had backed Smith against Thornton and if this was a normal tournament and Smith was the dog v Wade I'd be interested but I think you are probably right about Smith being pretty tilted. He played well at the weekend and would have fancied his chances of getting off the mark tonight against Thornton. All of a sudden through no fault of his own his opponent got tougher.  I've also just had a look on his Twitter and he was complaining of being ill yesterday. So physically not great and probably a bit tilted. I don't think betting on Wade in this spot can be bad.

[TightEnd]

Arsenal have gone favourites today, ref our nice pre-season bet

Click to see full-size image.

[fatcatstu]

meanwhile this afternoon in the UAE

1st Semi-final: Gemini Arabians v Sagittarius Strikers

We are on the arabians for the MCL.

Currently 76/1 in the 10th after winning the toss and batting first, Sehwag on 42 off 27, batting with Sangakkara. Looks like Sehwag is looking to get on with it now.

Interestingly, got 5 bowlers in the side today, so need the top 6 to make the runs. With that many front line bowlers though, a slightly smaller target should be defendable with Onions, Mills, Naved, Murali and Saqlain bowling.

[fatcatstu]

meanwhile this afternoon in the UAE

1st Semi-final: Gemini Arabians v Sagittarius Strikers

We are on the arabians for the MCL.

Currently 76/1 in the 10th after winning the toss and batting first, Sehwag on 42 off 27, batting with Sangakkara. Looks like Sehwag is looking to get on with it now.

Interestingly, got 5 bowlers in the side today, so need the top 6 to make the runs. With that many front line bowlers though, a slightly smaller target should be defendable with Onions, Mills, Naved, Murali and Saqlain bowling.

Sangakkara gone for 62 in 15th over, 141/2, still need to be looking at 180 I think.

[fatcatstu]

meanwhile this afternoon in the UAE

1st Semi-final: Gemini Arabians v Sagittarius Strikers

We are on the arabians for the MCL.

Currently 76/1 in the 10th after winning the toss and batting first, Sehwag on 42 off 27, batting with Sangakkara. Looks like Sehwag is looking to get on with it now.

Interestingly, got 5 bowlers in the side today, so need the top 6 to make the runs. With that many front line bowlers though, a slightly smaller target should be defendable with Onions, Mills, Naved, Murali and Saqlain bowling.

Sangakkara gone for 62 in 15th over, 141/2, still need to be looking at 180 I think.

Wheels falling off everywhere as Tino Best claims the wickets of Hodge, Sehwag and Rudolph in the 19th over!!!

176/5 going into the last over. Need a few here.

[fatcatstu]

15 off the last over thanks to some Rana Naved biffing takes us to 191/5. A very stiff chase with the bowling attacks the Arabians have, although Jayawardene, Mustard, Trott and Gilchrist could cause some havoc!