Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

Might be a bit of value with the books going 1/2 odds to reach the final of the Dell matchplay golf.  All the players in the 4/5 12/13 section of the draw are long odds.  For example, Kizzaire is 40/1 so 20/1 to get to the final.  To do this he has to win 3 matches.  He is 5/4 to beat Moore and I'd guess wouldn't be worse than 5/4 to beat the winner of An and Rafa and shouldn't be worse than 2-1 to make it into the final, so that works out to be about 14-1 to make the final and we are getting 20-1.

So my rough odds for each to make the final are

Moore 9-1  1/2 odds 12.5-1
An 11-1     1/2 odds 12.5-1
Rafa C-B 13-1  1/2 odds 16.5-1
Kizzaire 14-1    1/2 odds 20-1

Going by betfair Ryan Moore and Rafa seem to be the best value as the book odds are very close to Betfair so recommend £5ew on both with sadjokes

there is a golfer called Patton Kizzire?

something learned today then

Ryan Moore WGC Dell Match Play Winner
25/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/2 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £197.50

Rafael Cabrera Bello WGC Dell Match Play Winner
33/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/2 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £257.50

Moore & C-B both won so guaranteed a semi-final sweat on Sunday afternoon.  You can cash out a small profit tomorrow if you want as I would think there will be near enough a 100% book taking the best prices on the semi-final*

*assuming that fred can get on.

[TightEnd]

they play in the quarter you mean?

so one will play (as a likely underdog) one of who in the semi?

a good start to the bet!

[doubleup]

Looks like our hero will play Dustin J or Louis O, so prob a dog but not massive, Moore prob 5/4 ish C-B prob 6/4 I'd guess.

[bergeroo]

NZ Ladies T20 cricket update:

I'm still seeing value in the markets here.

New Zealand ladies still remain at 7/2 for the title with bet365 1/2 odds top two. I don't get it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/womens-t20-world-cup/womens-twenty20-world-cup/winner

Favourites Australia look highly likely to play second favourites England in the one semi leaving NZ to play outsiders India or West Indies in the other. If England lose their last match to Pakistan then they could face NZ which even then isn't the end of the world with the Kiwis. Seems to me that with good each way terms and the top two likely to play each other this is a slam dunk each way bet?

Not to mention the fact that NZ destroyed full strength Australia in their group game, I don't see how the are still so long for the title?

==========

After the four group games 20/1 shot Leigh Kasperek is now 7/4 to win the top bowler title with nine wickets. She is two clear of the Pakistan bowler in second place, but as Pakistan are a rank outsider to make the semis, her biggest rival could be her own team make who she is three clear of. Whatever happens the EW portion of the bet is now surely locked up. Hopefully a few thread readers followed me in and she can take a few more wickets in the tournament.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/icc-womens-world-twenty20-2016/engine/records/bowling/most_wickets_career.html?id=10293;type=tournament.

Devine again came in at number three for NZ today and is in my opinion still being priced up too long for the top match batter market. She finished on 27NO from 17 balls today, the openers got 28 and 29 and she simply ran out of balls because South Africa were out so cheaply. Still I'll bet her again if she remains higher than 5-1 in the next match.

[doubleup]

Not only is their a 100% book on the C-B/Louis match there is actually an arb with 7/4 and 8/13 available.....

I think Louis is a bit short, but the main value in the bet is pretty much crystallised so if you want you can put £40 on with Baldfred at 8/13 and that would freeroll the rest of the place money and the win.

[Tal]

There are two rounds left of the Candidates Chess Tournament in Moscow. Anand was beaten by Nakamura on Friday, where our man walked into a well-prepared variation by the American and was made to suffer. Nakamura knew the correct moves in advance and Anand was forced to try to find the perfect responses over and over again, which is too much for humans.

The press conference afterwards was a tough watch. Nakamura was the only one who spoke about the details; he was the only one who was comfortable discussing the opening theory because he was the only one who knew it. Anand sat as an interested spectator, just like everyone else.



The players all seem to be suffering from a bit of trouble getting over the hill in the last two rounds. Caruana has played two very ordinary games. Karjakin lost to Anand. Aronian should have beaten Caruana. Anand lost to Nakamura.

The table now looks like this:

Click to see full-size image.

British Grandmaster and chess correspondent, Jon Speelman, gives his assessment of the situation:

http://en.chessbase.com/post/speelman-on-the-candidates-fog-of-war

Round 13, Sunday 27 March 2016
Caruana v Svidler
Aronian v Karjakin
Topalov v Nakamura
Anand v Giri

Round 14, Monday 28 March 2016
Svidler v Anand
Giri v Topalov
Nakamura v Levon
Karjakin v Caruana

Tie Break Rules
If the top two or more players score the same points, the tie will be decided by the following criteria, in order of priority: 
a) The results of the games between the players involved in the tie. 
If they are still tied: 
b) The total number of wins in the tournament of every player involved in the tie. 
If they are still tied: 
c) Sonneborn - Berger System.


With Karjakin v Caruana tomorrow, it is all to play for. Anand will lose if he finishes joint top with Caruana, but has the same head to head as Karjakin. He has more wins than Karjakin, but it depends how the next two games go as to who wins on tie breaks. I'm hoping someone smarter than I explains it all going into the last round and I can then copy their work here. 



We probably need our man to win today, which means breaking down the seemingly impenetrable Dutch wall that is Anish Giri. Here's hoping.

[TightEnd]

Not only is their a 100% book on the C-B/Louis match there is actually an arb with 7/4 and 8/13 available.....

I think Louis is a bit short, but the main value in the bet is pretty much crystallised so if you want you can put £40 on with Baldfred at 8/13 and that would freeroll the rest of the place money and the win.

8/15

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/wgc-dell-match-play/louis-oosthuizen-v-rafa-cabrera-bello/winner

suspect you'll advise to let the 33/1 bet ride on his opponent?

[doubleup]

Yeah does seem a bit too short now, can only imagine that the books don't have much of a liability on C-B.

[TightEnd]

yesterday

burton drew, now 4 points ahead of wigan with 8 games left and the two teams have to play each other too

chesterfield drew with Fleetwood and are 7 points bury in that match bet and 5 points clear of the relegation positions again with 8 games to play

the division plays again tomorrw

we have an e/w double on wigan and grimsby in their respective divisions, e/w is 3 places. wigan are 2nd and grimsby are 3rd, 4 points clear of 4th with a game in hand after beating wrexham 1-0 yesterday

this mr cabrera bello on whom we have 33/1 each way to win the World matchplay. plays louis oosthuizen in the semis today. kick off 3.12pm our time

[Chompy]

We have the following bets on Wigan for L1...

£50 win @ 8-1, £50EW @ 8-1, £25EW @ 6-1 and £50EW @ 9-2.

The win parts of those bets total £175 to win £1,175.

At the moment we only have a small cover bet on Burton. Now feels like a good spot to lock a bit more down. Flick in £200 on Burton at 4-5 with Hills please.

[Tal]

I'm no rowing expert but I fancy a bet today.

Cambridge are good favourites today to beat the dark blue mob in the boat race. I am surprised to see the winning time prices, though.

Normally, times in the mid 17 minute range are common, but the strength of the teams varies massively year to year, with the weakest usually being in leap years; Olympic years. The big stars are with their national teams and, whilst still excellent rowers, the teams are notably less supreme.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_Boat_Race_results#Main_Race

4 years ago was the odd one where a very clever and funny man jumped into the Thames and went swimming at two 8 horsepower boats. The times were an amalgamation of two half races.

The weather was nice this morning, but it's forecast to be much tougher shortly:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2647567

The men's race is at 4:10. They row east to west, so I think that means the wind is against the tide.

Choppy waters and wind will make for tough conditions. If one team copes better and gets a lead, they'll be less likely to be pushing for a time, too.

Winning time 18:00 to 18:59 is 9/4 with Choral. Recommend £20.

[TightEnd]

We have the following bets on Wigan for L1...

£50 win @ 8-1, £50EW @ 8-1, £25EW @ 6-1 and £50EW @ 9-2.

The win parts of those bets total £175 to win £1,175.

At the moment we only have a small cover bet on Burton. Now feels like a good spot to lock a bit more down. Flick in £200 on Burton at 4-5 with Hills please.

28 Mar 2016 - English League 1 - Outright - Outright
Tip It

Burton @ 4/5

Stake : £200.00
Estimated Returns : £
360.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001548/F
Total Stake : £200.00

[TightEnd]

I'm no rowing expert but I fancy a bet today.

Cambridge are good favourites today to beat the dark blue mob in the boat race. I am surprised to see the winning time prices, though.

Normally, times in the mid 17 minute range are common, but the strength of the teams varies massively year to year, with the weakest usually being in leap years; Olympic years. The big stars are with their national teams and, whilst still excellent rowers, the teams are notably less supreme.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_Boat_Race_results#Main_Race

4 years ago was the odd one where a very clever and funny man jumped into the Thames and went swimming at two 8 horsepower boats. The times were an amalgamation of two half races.

The weather was nice this morning, but it's forecast to be much tougher shortly:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2647567

The men's race is at 4:10. They row east to west, so I think that means the wind is against the tide.

Choppy waters and wind will make for tough conditions. If one team copes better and gets a lead, they'll be less likely to be pushing for a time, too.

Winning time 18:00 to 18:59 is 9/4 with Choral. Recommend £20.

tense times we have been sent to trader for review

[TightEnd]

well now. limited on a £20 rowing bet

is this what is has come to?

18:00 to 18:59 minutes9/4The Boat Race - Men - 27/03/2016
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£16.25

anyone fancy popping in another £15 for us, let us know, thanks

[Tal]

well now. limited on a £20 rowing bet

is this what is has come to?

18:00 to 18:59 minutes9/4The Boat Race - Men - 27/03/2016
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£16.25

anyone fancy popping in another £15 for us, let us know, thanks

Just tried and I can't, I'm afraid. Thought I was only restricted on Novelty, too

(Just to be clear if anyone else is betting, you want the Men's race, not the women's or reserves)