Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Now we have hit 11k, I think it must be about time for peak banzai.

It is generally accepted in formula 1 that the engine has been letting down the McLaren over the last couple of years.  This year it has definitely improved so that they are genuine mid-tablers.  Over the last few days, I have heard it mentioned that they think they have the 3rd best chassis a couple of times.  Here is Alonso earlier   

http://www.crash.net/f1/news/230415/1/alonso-mclaren-has-stronger-chassis-than-ferrari.html


“We are behind Mercedes and Red Bull but they are very strong so we need to show in the next few races that we can improve our efficiency and mechanically grip,” Alonso said. “Maybe it is a surprise we are in front of many of our competitors but it is not for us. Good to be in front of Williams, Force India, Ferrari in terms of chassis.

I am fairly sure I read somewhere they were 3rd quickest in the tricky sector at the Spanish Grand Prix.

There is some testing going on in Barcelona today and Button is topping the charts, with a time a second quicker that in qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix.  Of course they could have put something illegal on the car, but I think it is a sign they are still getting quicker.

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/barcelona-f1-test-button-leads-first-morning-for-mclaren-737589/

A week on Sunday we have the Monaco grand prix.  This is likely the grand prix where the engine makes least difference and the chassis is all important.  It is also the grand prix that has produced a number of shocks over the years.  Senna "won" here in the terrible Toleman; Trulli and Panis managed their only wins here;  and an inferior Rosberg has managed to beat Hamilton here 3 years running!

So I think we have a perfect combination here for a very good McLaren performance.  We could easily see a McLaren or 2 in the first 3 rows of the grid.

After that we have realistic hopes for a coming together of some Mercedes or Red Bulls, and there has been many a careless driver clipped a wall or hit a backmarker here.

There probably doesn't need to be much more justifcation for backing a 200/1 chance.

Button is 200/1 in several spots, and 250/1 with Shy.  Alonso is 200/1 in several spots.  It really is a shame we don't get 3 spots on each way now, but I think we can manage with 2.

Can we try and get as much as we can on Alonso (150 up) and Button (200 up) each way.  I guess you can stop once we get to £40 each way, not that we will get that far.  I managed to get a little more than that.  Choral is probably a good place to start.

If you fail you can have a fiver e/w Alonso at 150/1 and Button at 200/1 with me (I guess the prices aren't going to hold for long).

These are bets which will almost always lose, but I'm pretty sure we are the correct side of value with them, & I thought they were a great spot. Be handy if Nico & Lewis bang heads again on the first lap, too.

Love the Monaco GP, always a viewing highlight.

I love this bet.  Shame it got restricted by Tighty.  The price is going to look fantastic if they get on the front 3 rows.

I know these things are fairly meaningless, but I have loooked at the long range weather forecast on a couple of sites, and both have a bit of rain forecast for the end of next week, which can only help the bet. http://www.accuweather.com/en/mc/monaco/5174/daily-weather-forecast/5174?day=11. 

I do tend to take such things with a pinch of salt, but using the Peter27 happiness index, Jenson Button is in a good place right now too.

Click to see full-size image.

Tough life huh?

Note.  other pictures have been excluded as people may be at work. 
 

The MvLarens don't seem to have as much pace as I hoped.

The Red Bulls looked very quick in practice 1 and 2, which was to be expected, though probably not nearly that quick.  Unfortunately the Torro Rossos look quicker than the McLarens too, and the slower than expected pace of the ferraris isn't going to balance this.  I guess row 5 is a possible, depending how Force India go, but not much higher.  Maybe there is an outside chance they were carrying a lot more fuel than the others, but I wouldn't hold much hope on that.

There is still a forecast of some rain for Sunday so all is not lost.

[Doobs]

How does anyone put a decent bet on a horse without getting restricted?

Serious question. Just trying to put a simple £50 e/w bet and getting restricted to silly amounts.

Welcome to the 2004 club in 2016!  Where have you been for 12 years!  Doing your cash?  Bar that you will always get a decent bet on the exchange close to the off but you will rarely have any value (esp not ew)

I don't bet very often on horses, I'm a typical mug punter so learnt a long time ago to give it up

Who restrcited you out of interest?  What price were you trying to get £50 ew on?

Boyle Poker restricted me to £8 e/w 12/1
Laddies £25 e/w 12/1
BetVictor £25 e/w 12/1

You know whats really frustrating putting £100 in to an account for a bet and having to draw it back out again waiting 3 days for the pleasure

Was it a particularly dirty race? Before I got shown the door, Victor would lay me quite a bit more than that in each way bets.  Boyles showed me the door before I could tell what was typical and I am not convinced the other company is even a bookmaker.

[tikay]

Adzy has not posted for over 3 days.

Anyone heard from him, or know if he is ok?

[Marky147]

Adzy has not posted for over 3 days.

Anyone heard from him, or know if he is ok?

Knowing goldenbollocks, he's probably gallivanting around with Brookhouse, or at a conference in Vegas

[arbboy]

Mid/wide at crayford dogs til 618pm. 

[tikay]

Adzy has not posted for over 3 days.

Anyone heard from him, or know if he is ok?

Knowing goldenbollocks, he's probably gallivanting around with Brookhouse, or at a conference in Vegas

Let's hope so. He's not even logged in today, which is most unlike him.

Probably at a concrete exhibition, the lucky bugger.

[arbboy]

Mid/wide at crayford dogs til 618pm. 

Usual 1x 2 forecast as soon as i pipe up with trouble out wide at first bend.

[Omm]

How does anyone put a decent bet on a horse without getting restricted?

Serious question. Just trying to put a simple £50 e/w bet and getting restricted to silly amounts.

Welcome to the 2004 club in 2016!  Where have you been for 12 years!  Doing your cash?  Bar that you will always get a decent bet on the exchange close to the off but you will rarely have any value (esp not ew)

I don't bet very often on horses, I'm a typical mug punter so learnt a long time ago to give it up

Who restrcited you out of interest?  What price were you trying to get £50 ew on?

Boyle Poker restricted me to £8 e/w 12/1
Laddies £25 e/w 12/1
BetVictor £25 e/w 12/1

You know whats really frustrating putting £100 in to an account for a bet and having to draw it back out again waiting 3 days for the pleasure

If you withdraw before 11pm all those three bookies are back on a debit card the next day.

Open a PayPal account, withdraws instantly (says 2 hrs but never been that long), also if you keep a balance in PayPal then the bookies sites never show on your bank statement. Win Win.

Although I notice Betfair charge for deposits but I think they are the only one.

[Sportshead]

Does anyone think there is any value in backing Man Utd for the title @ ( 11/2 on Betfair)

Mourinho about to be announced and Ibra almost definitely signing, I know his reputation is not as good here as on the continent, but 34 or not the guy is a beast and is a signing for right now not the future
Both these 2 love them or loath them are proven winners, and if reports to be believed Jose has been busy with possible signings while Pep has been busy in Munich
With Martial looking better each week if they signed , as rumoured , Willian that front 3 would be frightening imo
Not a Man U fan just think by August those odds may well be long gone
Thoughts?

[arbboy]

Does anyone think there is any value in backing Man Utd for the title @ ( 11/2 on Betfair)

Mourinho about to be announced and Ibra almost definitely signing, I know his reputation is not as good here as on the continent, but 34 or not the guy is a beast and is a signing for right now not the future
Both these 2 love them or loath them are proven winners, and if reports to be believed Jose has been busy with possible signings while Pep has been busy in Munich
With Martial looking better each week if they signed , as rumoured , Willian that front 3 would be frightening imo
Not a Man U fan just think by August those odds may well be long gone
Thoughts?

The odds have already long gone.  I put this up a few weeks ago around the 7/1 mark i think.   No chance they get much shorter imo now.  Everything is in the known.  If anything the gamble might have gone too far now and they are a lay at much shorter than the current price.

[Sportshead]

Ok didn't see that sorry
Still think there is room for the price too shorten by August yet

[arbboy]

Ok didn't see that sorry
Still think there is room for the price too shorten by August yet

It will if Ronaldo comes back.  Can't see them getting much shorter otherwise.  I will be laying them sub 9/2 if they get that short.

[Sportshead]

You should be ok then Ronaldo has said he is staying in Madrid
GL

[Doobs]

Say it isn't so.  Delph to miss Euro2016

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36339159

fk the haters Fabian. 

http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/02/7-times-fabian-delph-proved-that-he-is-a-comedy-genius-5728647/

[Cavey007]

So. I know manager markets are frankly ridiculous.

But word around here is that Pearson has been interviewed for the Derby job (4/6) but that there will be others and that Martinez is the players choice (currently 18/1 on Skybet)

Not a tip at all as it could easily be bullplop. But could be worth a little dabble at big odds if anyone wants to chuck a few quid on.

(ironically I've got money on Pearson at 4/1 from a few months ago as I'd heard from a 'friend of a friend')