Tips for Tikay

[Tonibell]

Muphry's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muphry%27s_law

[Ant040689]

The four best 3rd place teams from 6 groups goes through in the Euros, what points tally is that likely to be. Is that just 3 points?

4 points twice and 3 points twice were enough for third in 2012. 3 1 2 3 in 2008 which looks more promising. Games may be tighter because of the easier qualification, but 3 points should do it?

23/10 has Rep. of Ireland to make round two. How does that price compare to then getting one victory/3 draws or better out of 9/2 (Italy win) 13/5 (Sweden win) 5/1 (Belgium win)?

I wouldn't know how to address that mathematically. Is there value?

Generally think Ireland will compete well this tournament as the pressure is off with no expectancy while under Trappatoni 4 years ago I think there was. Has to help they were whitewashed last time out mentally to avenge or at least know they can't do qorse and they competed well against Poland and Germany in qualifying too.

They play today.

[DungBeetle]

I think you can get through with a pretty meagre output.  It's clouded by there being 3 points for a win now, but in Mexico 86 Uruguay got through with results of 1-1, 1-6, 0-0 and Bulgaria made it with 1-1, 1-1, 0-2.  I'd say one victory in all likelihood gets you through unless you get battered in one of the games.  I head someone say before the France game that three nil nil draws gives you a 85% chance of progressing (not sure where that figure comes from though)

[stumpythefish]

Great work by Peter,doobs and tighty at weekend thx for all the winners.Im even learning to bet smarter myself with all the discussions on the thread kutgw👍

[Ant040689]

I think you can get through with a pretty meagre output.  It's clouded by there being 3 points for a win now, but in Mexico 86 Uruguay got through with results of 1-1, 1-6, 0-0 and Bulgaria made it with 1-1, 1-1, 0-2.  I'd say one victory in all likelihood gets you through unless you get battered in one of the games.  I head someone say before the France game that three nil nil draws gives you a 85% chance of progressing (not sure where that figure comes from though)

Nice one. I am trying to figure out with all things considered is 23/10 a steal with the odds that Ireland have in the three games?

[BigAdz]

I know we have only seen a few teams, but I was mighty impressed with Poland last night. They have some seriously good talent in there, and feel like a team that know what they are doing.

Have we had a bet on them yet, i seem to recall they were discussed pre tournie, but I thought the 40-1 looked rather big after that display?*

*taking into account who they were playing etc.

[TightEnd]

can i bookmark a quest for thoughts and ideas for the US Open on thursday onwaards

Oakmont, a very tough test

in 2007 Cabrera won at 80-1

All 11 amateurs in the field missed the cut, only six men shot less than 10-over-par for the week and only two players broke par on day four. In fact, only four men shot par or better on day four!

lightning fast greens, long track, rough up.

so someone who can putt, hit it straight and hit it long please. no pressure

if we see any extra e/w place offers please post them up.

thank you

[TightEnd]

I know we have only seen a few teams, but I was mighty impressed with Poland last night. They have some seriously good talent in there, and feel like a team that know what they are doing.

Have we had a bet on them yet, i seem to recall they were discussed pre tournie, but I thought the 40-1 looked rather big after that display?*

*taking into account who they were playing etc.

tikay has them e/w off thread after they were tipped up elsewhere

He has croatia, poland and austria, small e/w at 25,40,50.

i liked the look of Milik a lot, Kryoziak (spelling, but not looking it up as am lazy) of sevilla ran the game, jacob b on the right wing is consistently good and the young 19yo on the left looked handy

N Ireland were so limited though

what i like about Poland, though its early days....is that if they finish second in the group to germany they end up in the half away from france/germany and the winner of the belgium group and into the quarter with the winner of the england group

i wouldn't be surprised to see one of these teams go very deep because of the shape of the draw

[arbboy]

Talking of draws Murray has been gifted the draw of all draws at Queens.  The organisers are making sure he has every chance of going deep to justify his huge appearance fee.  Muzz has never defended his Queen's titles successfully.  Last seven years won lost won lost won lost won.  Can he break the streak this year?

2nd and 3rd favs for the event play each other in the first round (raonic v Kyrgios) whilst Murray's quarter is stuffed with Brits albeit a potential banana skin in the first round .  Other tasty first round matches Lopez Cilic and Del Potro v Isner.  Two unknown qualifiers have drawn each other in the first round as well.   I never understand why the 4 qualifiers don't have to play the top 4 seeds in the first round.  Would avoid some of these crazy first round matches where quality grass players are going to be knocked out.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-london/aegon-championships/winner

[TightEnd]

Talking of draws Murray has been gifted the draw of all draws at Queens.  The organisers are making sure he has every chance of going deep to justify his huge appearance fee.  Muzz has never defended his Queen's titles successfully.  Last seven years won lost won lost won lost won.  Can he break the streak this year?

2nd and 3rd favs for the event play each other in the first round (raonic v Kyrgios) whilst Murray's quarter is stuffed with Brits albeit a potential banana skin in the first round .  Other tasty first round matches Lopez Cilic and Del Potro v Isner.  Two unknown qualifiers have drawn each other in the first round as well.   I never understand why the 4 qualifiers don't have to play the top 4 seeds in the first round.  Would avoid some of these crazy first round matches where quality grass players are going to be knocked out.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-london/aegon-championships/winner

do you want to back him at 11/8?


more generally, is Lendl going to make a noticeable difference for Wimbledon? i believe he was uncoached/solo at roland garros.

[arbboy]

Talking of draws Murray has been gifted the draw of all draws at Queens.  The organisers are making sure he has every chance of going deep to justify his huge appearance fee.  Muzz has never defended his Queen's titles successfully.  Last seven years won lost won lost won lost won.  Can he break the streak this year?

2nd and 3rd favs for the event play each other in the first round (raonic v Kyrgios) whilst Murray's quarter is stuffed with Brits albeit a potential banana skin in the first round .  Other tasty first round matches Lopez Cilic and Del Potro v Isner.  Two unknown qualifiers have drawn each other in the first round as well.   I never understand why the 4 qualifiers don't have to play the top 4 seeds in the first round.  Would avoid some of these crazy first round matches where quality grass players are going to be knocked out.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-london/aegon-championships/winner

do you want to back him at 11/8?


more generally, is Lendl going to make a noticeable difference for Wimbledon? i believe he was uncoached/solo at roland garros.

Not sure if i do or i don't tbh.  Slightly under on the machine (been backed from 2.6 to 2.3 i assume on the draw alone)  I am just a bit disappointed with the draw tbh in terms of viewing pleasure as a grass court fan as the week goes on.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-london/nick-kyrgios-v-milos-raonic/winner

Surprised Raonic is a decent dog in this match though tomorrow.  Anyone else got any views?

[TightEnd]

I think you can get through with a pretty meagre output.  It's clouded by there being 3 points for a win now, but in Mexico 86 Uruguay got through with results of 1-1, 1-6, 0-0 and Bulgaria made it with 1-1, 1-1, 0-2.  I'd say one victory in all likelihood gets you through unless you get battered in one of the games.  I head someone say before the France game that three nil nil draws gives you a 85% chance of progressing (not sure where that figure comes from though)

it was said on the BBC before one of the matches and i posted it yesterday

3 draws, 85% probability of being in the last 16 via one of the 4 third place spots

[DungBeetle]

I know we have only seen a few teams, but I was mighty impressed with Poland last night. They have some seriously good talent in there, and feel like a team that know what they are doing.

Have we had a bet on them yet, i seem to recall they were discussed pre tournie, but I thought the 40-1 looked rather big after that display?*

*taking into account who they were playing etc.

tikay has them e/w off thread after they were tipped up elsewhere

He has croatia, poland and austria, small e/w at 25,40,50.

i liked the look of Milik a lot, Kryoziak (spelling, but not looking it up as am lazy) of sevilla ran the game, jacob b on the right wing is consistently good and the young 19yo on the left looked handy

N Ireland were so limited though

what i like about Poland, though its early days....is that if they finish second in the group to germany they end up in the half away from france/germany and the winner of the belgium group and into the quarter with the winner of the england group

i wouldn't be surprised to see one of these teams go very deep because of the shape of the draw

I was a bit disappointed with Milik.  I know he has bags of talent and scored the winner but I thought he tended to take one touch to many and end up ruining some of the Polish moves.  I'm not sure how much yesterday tells us - as you say N Irelend were so limited and for all that Poland didn't create that many chances and could easily have got sucker punched for 1-1 a couple of times. 

I agree with your thoughts on the shape of the draw though.  To be honest I wouldn't be surprised to see Germany "lose" to Poland confident that they'll beat N Ireland in the last.  The pulled the same trick in Mexico 86 - lost to Denmark easily to avoid Spain/Russia quarter and face Morocco/Mexico instead.................it will be a similar dynamic as well.  Denmark were pleased and punch to put one over Germany and Poland would be heros at home to do the same as well.  Watch this space

[DMorgan]

The four best 3rd place teams from 6 groups goes through in the Euros, what points tally is that likely to be. Is that just 3 points?

4 points twice and 3 points twice were enough for third in 2012. 3 1 2 3 in 2008 which looks more promising. Games may be tighter because of the easier qualification, but 3 points should do it?

23/20 has Rep. of Ireland to make round two. How does that price compare to then getting one victory/3 draws or better out of 9/2 (Italy win) 13/5 (Sweden win) 5/1 (Belgium win)?

I wouldn't know how to address that mathematically. Is there value?

Generally think Ireland will compete well this tournament as the pressure is off with no expectancy while under Trappatoni 4 years ago I think there was. Has to help they were whitewashed last time out mentally to avenge or at least know they can't do qorse and they competed well against Poland and Germany in qualifying too.

They play today.

Intuitively 23/20 feels skinny but we'll do some maths and see how we get on

To simplify the model a bit, if we assume that 3 points is enough to get through then Ireland need to either:

Win Today
Lose today, win vs Belgium
Lose today, lose vs Belgium, win vs Italy
Draw all 3

Ireland are 3.95 in a pretty established market for todays game on bf so 1/3.95 = 25.3% to win today

No bf markets for the other games yet but we'll consult the fixed odds bookies, they have ireland at about 6.0 to beat Belgium so thats another 16.66% and ~5.0 to beat Italy so 20%

Draw prices as above are 3.15, 4.0, 3.6 so the treble there is 1/45.36 = 2.2%

So at these prices the markets reckon that Ireland score at least 3 points 47.5% of the time. Someone mentioned earlier that historically teams were 85% to qualify with 3 points so 47.5*0.85 = 40.375% to qualify if we accept that as true.

Actually it shouldn't be 85% of the 47.5% it should be 85% of the time that Ireland have 3 points. Sometimes they grab >3 points so the actual number will be slightly bigger than the 40.375% but you get the idea

Our breakeven point getting the 5/4 now available is 1/2.25 = 44.4% so we are a fair way short.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/group-e/to-qualify

[jakally]

Are you sure your maths is right Dan? Are they 23/10 or 23/20? More than 40% to get 3 points or more?