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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13442965 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #120015 on: July 28, 2016, 04:18:23 PM »

jon Ivan Puke from hills now going to come on screen again moaning about how much they knocked out on the spencer winner?  The worse PR man in the game by a mile.  Clueless and just full of slime.  Makes lolbrokes Williams look talented.  Jon 'i used to work for bald but upgraded to lolorals' Hill a close 2nd in this very competitive coup.
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arbboy
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« Reply #120016 on: July 28, 2016, 04:44:05 PM »

Any suggestions for Goodwood today, or should I go back to sticking pins in the paper?

As the price is going, Sword Fighter in the 3.10 11/2 win only Hills.  Just really like it.  Young improving, stays the trip and the rest aren't all that great right now.  And you get the offer.

Suggest £50 win for thread.


Hard work today.  I have backed highly sprung at 14/1 and just glamorous (8/1) e/w in the last.  Problem is that it is sporting bet, so they are limiting me pretty heavily.  I am not sure if thread can do better.  
Suggest we get 25 e/w on both with sporting bet at these prices if we can.


If we can't get the money on, or the price, no worries.  Betfred are 5 places, but terrible prices, and will likely limit us to 2 quid e/w anyway.

The only others I have backed are: Ardad to win at 18/1 in the 2.35.  Just because I was impressed once, but it ran terribly against the horse that is only 3rd favourite here last time.  Just punting maybe.   And You're Hired in the first win only (sporting bet only at 9/1, but maybe get half a point more on betfair).  I can't really get excited enough about these for thread though.

Many of the races are a bad shape for each way betting.  The 4.20 is a good shape, but I avoid e/w betting in maidens online.  I did have a couple of golfers, but the price had gone this morning too.   At least we got a decent price on sword fighter (now best 5/1 and going).
  

For that 4.20, Manama is standout 9/1 with the shouty red man at 3 Places 1/4 odds.

Fun race with 12 runners and the top two Evs and 13/8.

If Manama beats the top 2 in the market I'll run down Darlington High Row naked singing Rule Britannia.

You shouldn't mind giving up a little on the win part of dirty ew bets, but when you are giving away 100% of the win portion you haven't got much wiggle room gunning for 3rd place only.

9/1 vs 12/1 on the win.  9/4 vs 5/4 on the place is +ev overall though.  I am not going anywhere near it though (or Darlo if the miracle happens).

I think she'll start about 20 on the machine. She's at least a stone, probably more, behind the top 2 in the market.

And I would lay the 5/4 for a place for my max if there was any liquidity.

£200 ew on the fav at evens in the 420 recommended.  Great ew race.  1/7 to place on manchine and 1.95 to win.    Arbers holding both these prices up as well i imagine as the firms keep holding evens.  Both prices should probably be shorter.

Camel currently laying the 3rd in for his life at evens to place.  The liquidity has arrived Sir.  How much of a max lay is it odds on?
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 04:53:41 PM by arbboy » Logged
Doobs
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« Reply #120017 on: July 28, 2016, 04:56:16 PM »

Any suggestions for Goodwood today, or should I go back to sticking pins in the paper?

As the price is going, Sword Fighter in the 3.10 11/2 win only Hills.  Just really like it.  Young improving, stays the trip and the rest aren't all that great right now.  And you get the offer.

Suggest £50 win for thread.


Hard work today.  I have backed highly sprung at 14/1 and just glamorous (8/1) e/w in the last.  Problem is that it is sporting bet, so they are limiting me pretty heavily.  I am not sure if thread can do better.  
Suggest we get 25 e/w on both with sporting bet at these prices if we can.


If we can't get the money on, or the price, no worries.  Betfred are 5 places, but terrible prices, and will likely limit us to 2 quid e/w anyway.

The only others I have backed are: Ardad to win at 18/1 in the 2.35.  Just because I was impressed once, but it ran terribly against the horse that is only 3rd favourite here last time.  Just punting maybe.   And You're Hired in the first win only (sporting bet only at 9/1, but maybe get half a point more on betfair).  I can't really get excited enough about these for thread though.

Many of the races are a bad shape for each way betting.  The 4.20 is a good shape, but I avoid e/w betting in maidens online.  I did have a couple of golfers, but the price had gone this morning too.   At least we got a decent price on sword fighter (now best 5/1 and going).
  

For that 4.20, Manama is standout 9/1 with the shouty red man at 3 Places 1/4 odds.

Fun race with 12 runners and the top two Evs and 13/8.

If Manama beats the top 2 in the market I'll run down Darlington High Row naked singing Rule Britannia.

You shouldn't mind giving up a little on the win part of dirty ew bets, but when you are giving away 100% of the win portion you haven't got much wiggle room gunning for 3rd place only.

9/1 vs 12/1 on the win.  9/4 vs 5/4 on the place is +ev overall though.  I am not going anywhere near it though (or Darlo if the miracle happens).

I think she'll start about 20 on the machine. She's at least a stone, probably more, behind the top 2 in the market.

And I would lay the 5/4 for a place for my max if there was any liquidity.

£200 ew on the fav at evens in the 420 recommended.  Great ew race.  1/7 to place on manchine and 1.95 to win.    Arbers holding both these prices up as well i imagine as the firms keep holding evens.  Both prices should probably be shorter.

Camel currently laying the 3rd in for his life at evens to place.  The liquidity has arrived Sir.  How much of a max lay is it odds on?

Was thinking that.  13/8 2nd fav e/w is nice too.  Fwiw 

Edit immediately drifts
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 04:58:12 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
The Camel
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« Reply #120018 on: July 28, 2016, 04:59:20 PM »

Any suggestions for Goodwood today, or should I go back to sticking pins in the paper?

As the price is going, Sword Fighter in the 3.10 11/2 win only Hills.  Just really like it.  Young improving, stays the trip and the rest aren't all that great right now.  And you get the offer.

Suggest £50 win for thread.


Hard work today.  I have backed highly sprung at 14/1 and just glamorous (8/1) e/w in the last.  Problem is that it is sporting bet, so they are limiting me pretty heavily.  I am not sure if thread can do better.  
Suggest we get 25 e/w on both with sporting bet at these prices if we can.


If we can't get the money on, or the price, no worries.  Betfred are 5 places, but terrible prices, and will likely limit us to 2 quid e/w anyway.

The only others I have backed are: Ardad to win at 18/1 in the 2.35.  Just because I was impressed once, but it ran terribly against the horse that is only 3rd favourite here last time.  Just punting maybe.   And You're Hired in the first win only (sporting bet only at 9/1, but maybe get half a point more on betfair).  I can't really get excited enough about these for thread though.

Many of the races are a bad shape for each way betting.  The 4.20 is a good shape, but I avoid e/w betting in maidens online.  I did have a couple of golfers, but the price had gone this morning too.   At least we got a decent price on sword fighter (now best 5/1 and going).
  

For that 4.20, Manama is standout 9/1 with the shouty red man at 3 Places 1/4 odds.

Fun race with 12 runners and the top two Evs and 13/8.

If Manama beats the top 2 in the market I'll run down Darlington High Row naked singing Rule Britannia.

You shouldn't mind giving up a little on the win part of dirty ew bets, but when you are giving away 100% of the win portion you haven't got much wiggle room gunning for 3rd place only.

9/1 vs 12/1 on the win.  9/4 vs 5/4 on the place is +ev overall though.  I am not going anywhere near it though (or Darlo if the miracle happens).

I think she'll start about 20 on the machine. She's at least a stone, probably more, behind the top 2 in the market.

And I would lay the 5/4 for a place for my max if there was any liquidity.

£200 ew on the fav at evens in the 420 recommended.  Great ew race.  1/7 to place on manchine and 1.95 to win.    Arbers holding both these prices up as well i imagine as the firms keep holding evens.  Both prices should probably be shorter.

Camel currently laying the 3rd in for his life at evens to place.  The liquidity has arrived Sir.  How much of a max lay is it odds on?

I'm on the top two to win at 5/2 and 7/4 for more than my max already.

Will be watching through through the cracks in my fingers.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

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arbboy
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« Reply #120019 on: July 28, 2016, 05:01:33 PM »

Any suggestions for Goodwood today, or should I go back to sticking pins in the paper?

As the price is going, Sword Fighter in the 3.10 11/2 win only Hills.  Just really like it.  Young improving, stays the trip and the rest aren't all that great right now.  And you get the offer.

Suggest £50 win for thread.


Hard work today.  I have backed highly sprung at 14/1 and just glamorous (8/1) e/w in the last.  Problem is that it is sporting bet, so they are limiting me pretty heavily.  I am not sure if thread can do better.  
Suggest we get 25 e/w on both with sporting bet at these prices if we can.


If we can't get the money on, or the price, no worries.  Betfred are 5 places, but terrible prices, and will likely limit us to 2 quid e/w anyway.

The only others I have backed are: Ardad to win at 18/1 in the 2.35.  Just because I was impressed once, but it ran terribly against the horse that is only 3rd favourite here last time.  Just punting maybe.   And You're Hired in the first win only (sporting bet only at 9/1, but maybe get half a point more on betfair).  I can't really get excited enough about these for thread though.

Many of the races are a bad shape for each way betting.  The 4.20 is a good shape, but I avoid e/w betting in maidens online.  I did have a couple of golfers, but the price had gone this morning too.   At least we got a decent price on sword fighter (now best 5/1 and going).
  

For that 4.20, Manama is standout 9/1 with the shouty red man at 3 Places 1/4 odds.

Fun race with 12 runners and the top two Evs and 13/8.

If Manama beats the top 2 in the market I'll run down Darlington High Row naked singing Rule Britannia.

You shouldn't mind giving up a little on the win part of dirty ew bets, but when you are giving away 100% of the win portion you haven't got much wiggle room gunning for 3rd place only.

9/1 vs 12/1 on the win.  9/4 vs 5/4 on the place is +ev overall though.  I am not going anywhere near it though (or Darlo if the miracle happens).

I think she'll start about 20 on the machine. She's at least a stone, probably more, behind the top 2 in the market.

And I would lay the 5/4 for a place for my max if there was any liquidity.

£200 ew on the fav at evens in the 420 recommended.  Great ew race.  1/7 to place on manchine and 1.95 to win.    Arbers holding both these prices up as well i imagine as the firms keep holding evens.  Both prices should probably be shorter.

Camel currently laying the 3rd in for his life at evens to place.  The liquidity has arrived Sir.  How much of a max lay is it odds on?

I'm on the top two to win at 5/2 and 7/4 for more than my max already.

Will be watching through through the cracks in my fingers.

On both ew surely?  Not win only?  Good luck.
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The Camel
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« Reply #120020 on: July 28, 2016, 05:03:26 PM »

Any suggestions for Goodwood today, or should I go back to sticking pins in the paper?

As the price is going, Sword Fighter in the 3.10 11/2 win only Hills.  Just really like it.  Young improving, stays the trip and the rest aren't all that great right now.  And you get the offer.

Suggest £50 win for thread.


Hard work today.  I have backed highly sprung at 14/1 and just glamorous (8/1) e/w in the last.  Problem is that it is sporting bet, so they are limiting me pretty heavily.  I am not sure if thread can do better.  
Suggest we get 25 e/w on both with sporting bet at these prices if we can.


If we can't get the money on, or the price, no worries.  Betfred are 5 places, but terrible prices, and will likely limit us to 2 quid e/w anyway.

The only others I have backed are: Ardad to win at 18/1 in the 2.35.  Just because I was impressed once, but it ran terribly against the horse that is only 3rd favourite here last time.  Just punting maybe.   And You're Hired in the first win only (sporting bet only at 9/1, but maybe get half a point more on betfair).  I can't really get excited enough about these for thread though.

Many of the races are a bad shape for each way betting.  The 4.20 is a good shape, but I avoid e/w betting in maidens online.  I did have a couple of golfers, but the price had gone this morning too.   At least we got a decent price on sword fighter (now best 5/1 and going).
  

For that 4.20, Manama is standout 9/1 with the shouty red man at 3 Places 1/4 odds.

Fun race with 12 runners and the top two Evs and 13/8.

If Manama beats the top 2 in the market I'll run down Darlington High Row naked singing Rule Britannia.

You shouldn't mind giving up a little on the win part of dirty ew bets, but when you are giving away 100% of the win portion you haven't got much wiggle room gunning for 3rd place only.

9/1 vs 12/1 on the win.  9/4 vs 5/4 on the place is +ev overall though.  I am not going anywhere near it though (or Darlo if the miracle happens).

I think she'll start about 20 on the machine. She's at least a stone, probably more, behind the top 2 in the market.

And I would lay the 5/4 for a place for my max if there was any liquidity.

£200 ew on the fav at evens in the 420 recommended.  Great ew race.  1/7 to place on manchine and 1.95 to win.    Arbers holding both these prices up as well i imagine as the firms keep holding evens.  Both prices should probably be shorter.

Camel currently laying the 3rd in for his life at evens to place.  The liquidity has arrived Sir.  How much of a max lay is it odds on?

I'm on the top two to win at 5/2 and 7/4 for more than my max already.

Will be watching through through the cracks in my fingers.

On both ew surely?  Not win only?  Good luck.

Rhododendren ew, the other one win only.
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"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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« Reply #120021 on: July 28, 2016, 05:04:00 PM »

Good luck boys, lumping one race maidens in adverse conditions is not for a pussy like me Smiley
make up of race is ideal tho.
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« Reply #120022 on: July 28, 2016, 05:19:12 PM »

well done lads, breathe out.
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arbboy
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« Reply #120023 on: July 28, 2016, 05:19:18 PM »

oioi keefy!  well played son.  Nearly went off 20.0 on machine.  17 will do.

The non runner in the Stratford race cost us as well as the Johnson horse hosed up as well (sp 10/3).  Grand left on the table for fred today.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 05:23:51 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #120024 on: July 28, 2016, 05:21:08 PM »

oioi keefy!  well played son.  Nearly went off 20.0 on machine.  17 will do.

Think ours was last, though couldn't see much. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #120025 on: July 28, 2016, 05:24:35 PM »

oioi keefy!  well played son.  Nearly went off 20.0 on machine.  17 will do.

Would not be surprised if the those two end up in top half dozen fillies in the end of year ratings.

Both group race horses.

Third has run a monster race, raiding Jake's piggy bank to back that next time out in a Salisbury maiden.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
arbboy
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« Reply #120026 on: July 28, 2016, 05:33:10 PM »

well done lads, breathe out.

Love how people think these short priced ew bets are 'risky'.  Always makes me chuckle.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #120027 on: July 28, 2016, 05:41:22 PM »

well done lads, breathe out.

Love how people think these short priced ew bets are 'risky'.  Always makes me chuckle.

Best have hundreds of small, bad bets, must be safer.
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arbboy
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« Reply #120028 on: July 28, 2016, 05:51:28 PM »

all rails at romford bags this afternoon. 
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« Reply #120029 on: July 28, 2016, 05:55:07 PM »

Sporting Index have Championship spreads up now if anyone is interested.

Leeds feel a bit low at 58 with a few signings and a good manager in situ.


 Newcastle Points - 81  83   
 Norwich Points - 74.5  76.5   
 Derby Points - 73  75   
 Aston Villa Points - 72.5  74.5   
 Brighton Points - 71  73   
 Sheffield Wednesday Points - 70.5  72.5   
 Wolves Points - 67.5  69.5   
 Cardiff Points - 62.5  64.5   
 Brentford Points - 62  64   
 QPR Points - 62  64   
 Ipswich Points - 61.5  63.5   
 Wigan Points - 60  62   
 Reading Points - 58.5  60.5   
 Bristol City Points - 58  60   
 Huddersfield Points - 58  60   
 Preston Points - 57.5  59.5   
 Birmingham Points - 57  59   
 Fulham Points - 56.5  58.5   
 Leeds Points - 56  58   
 Nottingham Forest Points - 56  58   
 Blackburn Points - 54  56   
 Barnsley Points - 51  53   
 Rotherham Points - 49  51   
 Burton Points - 46  48   

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