Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

T20 tonight

Hants v Somerset (not on TV)

Both out of the running for qualification to the next round....so Somerset taking a young side down to Hampshire.

Hampshire also fielding a team not considered to be at full strength either , but looks the better/experienced side and so Hants have been back to odds on now from odds against yesterday.

BET356 have MOM odds...with lots of non runners (but priced up!), due to weakened teams playing.

Shahid Afridi is set to make last his last T20 appearance for Hampshire ...sure to bat and bowl ( bowling real well atm ), and looks value at 10/1 Man of the match.

Dawson also playing well and is also 10/1 and its a toss up which one to do.

Worth a small bet on either for those that can do 356.

Hants win and Dawson shares MOM......so half odds paid.

[DropTheHammer]

Wow lovely tip Nick, wd anyone who followed you in.

[tikay]

T20 tonight

Hants v Somerset (not on TV)

Both out of the running for qualification to the next round....so Somerset taking a young side down to Hampshire.

Hampshire also fielding a team not considered to be at full strength either , but looks the better/experienced side and so Hants have been back to odds on now from odds against yesterday.

BET356 have MOM odds...with lots of non runners (but priced up!), due to weakened teams playing.

Shahid Afridi is set to make last his last T20 appearance for Hampshire ...sure to bat and bowl ( bowling real well atm ), and looks value at 10/1 Man of the match.

Dawson also playing well and is also 10/1 and its a toss up which one to do.

Worth a small bet on either for those that can do 356.

Hants win and Dawson shares MOM......so half odds paid.

That's an odd one Nick - are these things often shared? Don't really follow MOTM stuff much, but don't seem to recall many split pots.

PS - Clever spot, too. Bookies had their eyes closed, you were in like  shot.

[TightEnd]

Okay, so I was purposely waiting until after Friday practice to post any bet suggestions. The Hockenheim track is a unique one in terms of historical data providing very little insight year-on-year. It's a bit on an anomaly really, but the thermal tyre degradation on this track is never really consistent.

Anyhow, here are my suggestions based on what we saw today:

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 6/4 with various. Lewis has the momentum at the moment, and he is rightly the favourite, however 6/4 on Nico is too high - especially at his home race. To give some idea of where the cut off point is, 11/10 on Nico for pole is not a bet. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/winner

Points Finish - Daniil Kvyat @ 9/4 with various. The Russian has been off form lately following his Red Bull demotion. However, this weekend through the two practice sessions so far, he appears to have matched his team mate. A bit of luck and Daniil could score points. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/points-finish

Winning Margin - 5-9 999 Seconds @ 11/4 with Coral. Given how often the winning margin is between these figures, a price of nearly 3/1 just seems too high to me. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/winning-margin

That's all for now, will re-review pre-qualifying

Nico Rosberg German Grand Prix Winner
£20.00 @ 2.74
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £54.82

Daniil Kvyat German Grand Prix Points Finish
9/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £65.00

5-9 999 Seconds German Grand Prix Winning Margin
11/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Total Returns: £75.00

[Chompy]

T20 tonight

Hants v Somerset (not on TV)

Both out of the running for qualification to the next round....so Somerset taking a young side down to Hampshire.

Hampshire also fielding a team not considered to be at full strength either , but looks the better/experienced side and so Hants have been back to odds on now from odds against yesterday.

BET356 have MOM odds...with lots of non runners (but priced up!), due to weakened teams playing.

Shahid Afridi is set to make last his last T20 appearance for Hampshire ...sure to bat and bowl ( bowling real well atm ), and looks value at 10/1 Man of the match.

Dawson also playing well and is also 10/1 and its a toss up which one to do.

Worth a small bet on either for those that can do 356.

Hants win and Dawson shares MOM......so half odds paid.

That's an odd one Nick - are these things often shared? Don't really follow MOTM stuff much, but don't seem to recall many split pots.

PS - Clever spot, too. Bookies had their eyes closed, you were in like  shot.

Damn, missed this. Great stuff.

188bet and 10bet are both still offering each-way on the Flat jockeys' championship, even though it's 4-11, 3-1, 15-2, any price bar (in reality). Joe Fanning is in there at Evens, which is just a mistake.

There's only a few weeks of evening racing left and it will be hard for anyone to close down the big three, who are closely grouped and ten clear. Ryan isn't off a yard and Silvestre will probably win it, but James Doyle will get plenty of Godawful 2yos from here on and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him nick it. 15-2 EW is bombproof for those that can.

[horseplayer]

Just the 19 overs without a run in the test match this morning
Been a superb watch

[horseplayer]

Re Gamesome

Did not seem any excuses will follow next two runs then ditch personally

Come back to form last two starts in very hot form events.

Not suggesting for Fred but in the stewards consolation today at 2pm.

[Doobs]

Funnily enough all the favourites are drawn high in the 2pm.  Not sure that is right given what I saw this week.

Anyway, going to go for the low draws again.

First one is Seeking Magic.  Has won twice over this course and distance off a similar mark, including when disqualified 2 races ago.

Unfortunately you aren't getting 16/1 and 5 places anywhere other than with me.  Suggest £25 e/w 16/1 5 places (It is already on if you want, just confirm and it is booked).

Next is Nuno Tristan.  Not sure on the jockey booking, but at least we get a bit of weight off I guess.  Again drawn low, this one is young and probably still improving.  Didn't have a great draw last time.  Suggest £25 e/w with Hills (get 5 places and the offer)

I can't resist Soie D'Leau as it is drawn in one.  Victor is only paying 4 places but is 33/1 and I have taken 28/1 5 places.  Feels much the same.  It is a front runner, which is good from stall 1, but might not stay.  Please hold.  Suggest £15 e/w with Victor at 33/1.

[TightEnd]

Funnily enough all the favourites are drawn high in the 2pm.  Not sure that is right given what I saw this week.

Anyway, going to go for the low draws again.

First one is Seeking Magic.  Has won twice over this course and distance off a similar mark, including when disqualified 2 races ago.

Unfortunately you aren't getting 16/1 and 5 places anywhere other than with me.  Suggest £25 e/w 16/1 5 places (It is already on if you want, just confirm and it is booked).

Next is Nuno Tristan.  Not sure on the jockey booking, but at least we get a bit of weight off I guess.  Again drawn low, this one is young and probably still improving.  Didn't have a great draw last time.  Suggest £25 e/w with Hills (get 5 places and the offer)

I can't resist Soie D'Leau as it is drawn in one.  Victor is only paying 4 places but is 33/1 and I have taken 28/1 5 places.  Feels much the same.  It is a front runner, which is good from stall 1, but might not stay.  Please hold.  Suggest £15 e/w with Victor at 33/1.

Seeking Magic confirmed

Nuno Tristan Goodwood 14:00 Winner
12/1 Each Way (5 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £425.00

Soie Dleau Goodwood 14:00 Winner
33/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £648.75

[Doobs]

I have backed Move Up in the 2nd, but don't feel strongly enough to put it up for thread.  The 3.10 is just for watching.

In the 3.45, I really liked Dancing Star.   It is young and has got a low draw.  Unfortunately it seems everybody else does and the price has been smashed.  I don't think it is great each way with all these runners either.  Hopefully someone will go to 11/2 and we can get win only on the offer.  I am on already at bigger, but going to give it a miss for now for thread. 

The 4.20 is a maiden, so will miss it.  The 16.55 has gone 15 runners, and the 18.00 is on 16 right now.

Might be back later after another look at the 3.45.   

Glad I don't need to pick decent bets in all these races.

[Doobs]

One more.

I think Ridge Ranger is probably a bet in the 3.45.

He has the important low draw, seems in form and has won here before (over 5).  He also sits with the pace, so shouldn't be swamped from that draw.

Suggesr 25 e/w with victor at 16/1 (5 places)

[Chompy]

Nuno Tristan kind of picks himself in the 2.00, as the well-backed low-drawn runner in a market dominated by those drawn high. Wouldn't have any concerns with Adam Mc and having 5lb off is golden in these races.

[TightEnd]

One more.

I think Ridge Ranger is probably a bet in the 3.45.

He has the important low draw, seems in form and has won here before (over 5).  He also sits with the pace, so shouldn't be swamped from that draw.

Suggesr 25 e/w with victor at 16/1 (5 places)

Ridge Ranger Goodwood 15:45 Winner
16/1 Each Way (5 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £550.00

[Tal]

If you fancy having your tuppence'th on the brilliant debate on the Morning Line (the last 20 mins if you watch it on 4OD):

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67073.0

[Peter-27]

I have looked at the F1 markets, got nothing further to suggest.