Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Tosser!

[The Camel]

Are our egos that big that we can't take a little constructive criticism about a bet without over reacting so much?

[PokerBroker]

That is a solid start for the Aberdden w/o Celtic market. 

The rangers were expected to win comfortably today and despite not seeing the whole game they didn't look that great to me from the parts I seen.  Hamilton were/are favourites for relegation.  Arguably after a bad season last year they are worse off this time around. 

[Mark_Porter]

Sorry if it's already been mentioned (not been keeping up) but Charlie Austin at 66/1 five places 1/4 with Betty Sportspunt? Pelle and Mane have flown the nest and someone has to score the goals. He was a fringe England player not all that long ago.

Would Saints fans confirm, please, but I believe Southampton played a 4-4-2 today with Tadic in behind the strikers. That would be Austin in the 18 yard box and Long running the channels. If that's the system, it is very much something to bear in mind.

Yes, this is the plan, Long runs the channels, Charlie taps them in.

Expect Redmond to feature as a striker fairly often. Puel has talked him up as a striker.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/southampton/top-league-goalscorer

[Weetabix]

Hey Dungbeetle, if fritz, Anderson, young, or even mannarino (one of the rags) made it through instead of isner,  100/1 in this instance still wouldn't beat the odds as you are saying hectors pick would be a 4/6 shot In the final(as he was 60/1 to make the final,  he would probably be fav v mannarino only if he was to beat a Kyrgios but underdog against the other finalists.  I agree though, you can get hidden value in the outright if the top seeds are beaten but not in this case with nishioka.  He only has to win 4 matches to make the final in these small events, you could map out his route and 9/1 to make the semi final was the easiest route.  If Garcia Lopez had beaten zeballos(nishioka opponent)he would be an even bigger price to make it this far as he would have been odds against vs him as opposed to the odds on price v zeballos.  I have come at this from the easiest route to this stage.   I should have thought a little more how I posted as I knew adz would throw the toys out of the pram.   I do hope your pick makes the final hector as I have John Isner.

[TheDazzler]

Are our egos that big that we can't take a little constructive criticism about a bet without over reacting so much?

Unfair imo.
If someone posted negatively on one my bets after the event, I would be somewhat miffed. That's entirely natural and doesn't mean I have a big ego, in fact it suggests the opposite.
Hector is one of the best tipsters on here and it would be a terrible shame if he felt he didn't want to put up bets on here for fear of criticism.
It's unfortunate Weetabix put his comment up after the event as opposed to prior but we're at where we're at and I don't think he meant any harm.
We can choose to take the positives from the situation and learn from it or we can descend into petty squabbling and score settling. It's a choice.

Thx very much for the tip Hector, it's very much appreciated and c'mon Nishioka!

[BigAdz]

Are our egos that big that we can't take a little constructive criticism about a bet without over reacting so much?

Wasn't my bet to defend, I just reacted to a somewhat needless post.

I think as Dung has pointed out, Hector made the selection based on a potential fav falling by the wayside, thus making the calculations made in HINDSIGHT, superfluous.

It is easy to come back and state the reflective odds are wrong based on something different happening after the event.

As I said, there have been several snipes at Hectors picks over the years. Firstly, its misplaced, and furthermore it gets a bit boring for those of us that do so well from them. Haters gonna hate I suppose, but some of us will speak up.

FWIW, I seem to recall certain other Elders flouncing off for periods after criticism or critique has come their way. None of us are immune...

[TheDazzler]

Sorry if it's already been mentioned (not been keeping up) but Charlie Austin at 66/1 five places 1/4 with Betty Sportspunt? Pelle and Mane have flown the nest and someone has to score the goals. He was a fringe England player not all that long ago.

Would Saints fans confirm, please, but I believe Southampton played a 4-4-2 today with Tadic in behind the strikers. That would be Austin in the 18 yard box and Long running the channels. If that's the system, it is very much something to bear in mind.

Yes, this is the plan, Long runs the channels, Charlie taps them in.

Expect Redmond to feature as a striker fairly often. Puel has talked him up as a striker.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/southampton/top-league-goalscorer

And Puel is the man who developed Henry from a winger into a striker.
I looked and couldn't see Redmond on the top scorer list so he'll be a tasty price. He scored 6 league goals for Norwich last year as a winger.
http://readsouthampton.com/2016/08/02/claude-puel-sees-nathan-redmond-as-a-capable-forward/

[DungBeetle]

Hey Dungbeetle, if fritz, Anderson, young, or even mannarino (one of the rags) made it through instead of isner,  100/1 in this instance still wouldn't beat the odds as you are saying hectors pick would be a 4/6 shot In the final(as he was 60/1 to make the final,  he would probably be fav v mannarino only if he was to beat a Kyrgios but underdog against the other finalists.  I agree though, you can get hidden value in the outright if the top seeds are beaten but not in this case with nishioka.  He only has to win 4 matches to make the final in these small events, you could map out his route and 9/1 to make the semi final was the easiest route.  If Garcia Lopez had beaten zeballos(nishioka opponent)he would be an even bigger price to make it this far as he would have been odds against vs him as opposed to the odds on price v zeballos.  I have come at this from the easiest route to this stage.   I should have thought a little more how I posted as I knew adz would throw the toys out of the pram.   I do hope your pick makes the final hector as I have John Isner.

Fair enough I haven't followed this particular tournament just have a small each way ticket in my mitts based on the tip and waiting for good news updates on here! 

[bergeroo]

Birmingham fan, big fan of Nathan Redmond, watched his early matches. Seems like a really nice fella, great attitude and still like to watch him play. Don't have him marked down as any kind of prolific goalscorer, he still seems too slight to me and much more suited to playing in wide areas. Admittedly I don't watch his every match any more, but I always tried to catch Norwich when I can for the ex-Birmingham players. Even at 12-1 I don't think I like him vs Austin/Long/Tadic for top Saints scorer, esp as one of those three is going to be on pens and not Nathan.

Good signing for Saints though, and I really hope to see him kick on in the next year or two and see if he can knock on the door for an England call up.

 

Sorry if it's already been mentioned (not been keeping up) but Charlie Austin at 66/1 five places 1/4 with Betty Sportspunt? Pelle and Mane have flown the nest and someone has to score the goals. He was a fringe England player not all that long ago.

Would Saints fans confirm, please, but I believe Southampton played a 4-4-2 today with Tadic in behind the strikers. That would be Austin in the 18 yard box and Long running the channels. If that's the system, it is very much something to bear in mind.

Yes, this is the plan, Long runs the channels, Charlie taps them in.

Expect Redmond to feature as a striker fairly often. Puel has talked him up as a striker.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/southampton/top-league-goalscorer

[The Camel]

Are our egos that big that we can't take a little constructive criticism about a bet without over reacting so much?

Unfair imo.
If someone posted negatively on one my bets after the event, I would be somewhat miffed. That's entirely natural and doesn't mean I have a big ego, in fact it suggests the opposite.
Hector is one of the best tipsters on here and it would be a terrible shame if he felt he didn't want to put up bets on here for fear of criticism.
It's unfortunate Weetabix put his comment up after the event as opposed to prior but we're at where we're at and I don't think he meant any harm.
We can choose to take the positives from the situation and learn from it or we can descend into petty squabbling and score settling. It's a choice.

Thx very much for the tip Hector, it's very much appreciated and c'mon Nishioka!

Why would you be miffed?

As far as I could see it was a constructive post; reminding us the fundamentals of how to work out whether an ante post is value when you know the draw in advance.

I certainly couldn't see anything which justified weetabix being labelled as a "tosser".

The whole point of this thread was not to have random punts it is trying to find +ev bets.

Just because something is 100/1 doesn't mean it's value.

[Weetabix]

Dungbeetle, this is just my opinion but these small events are way easier to figure out if you are taking  value in the outright  compared to a slam where you need to win 7 matches or 6 to make a final.  Look at John isner this week, he finds himself in a semifinal having only played 4 sets of tennis due to him having a bye to the last 16 as did kygrios.

[DungBeetle]

Dungbeetle, this is just my opinion but these small events are way easier to figure out if you are taking  value in the outright  compared to a slam where you need to win 7 matches or 6 to make a final.  Look at John isner this week, he finds himself in a semifinal having one played 4 sets of tennis due to him having a bye to the last 16 as did kygrios.

Cheers Weetabix makes sense.

[Weetabix]

Haters gonna hate? Seriously, I make my own picks each week and always look In and see who hector has put up, often he puts up the same players I have picked out myself, in this instance Adz if I was to follow his pick I would have taken the route explained to make more money from the selection, no hating here.

[Rod Paradise]

That is a solid start for the Aberdden w/o Celtic market. 

The rangers were expected to win comfortably today and despite not seeing the whole game they didn't look that great to me from the parts I seen.  Hamilton were/are favourites for relegation.  Arguably after a bad season last year they are worse off this time around. 

Long way to go obviously, but it's not helping my 'lump more on after The Rangers easy start' strategy.

Comment from a Rangers Forum on Clint Hill " We would have been better off signing his brother Harry "