Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Question.

Managing a bankroll. Let's say you have a player  in a tennis tournament who you think will do well and will be overpriced/undervalued by the market. It is a tennis tournament and you back him outright e/w. Then you have the individual matches too. Let's say you have a notional bankroll of 100 points allocated to be tennis in this tournament. How much of it do you put on your man outright, how much do you put on the individual matches? Do you save some for other matches for things you spot.

 If you are backing a player outright for the tourney and then also steaming in backing him for individual matches, if you are allocating alot of your points for doing this aren't you opening yourself up to a lot of variance? Or is it actually less variance to back a bit outright and then on the individual matches, because he may well win one or two matches, so you will win all those bets and not lose it all compared to if you just bet 50 points e/w on your player and he doesn't make the final.

Backing matches alone is going to result in less variance, but the correct answer should be bet wherever there is value.  Unless you had a huge bet at the beginning of the tournament, I don't think you should ever have bankroll issues.   If only there was a bookie where I could get close to the max.

[hector62]

Rugby League today England v France. Gareth Widdop to anytime try score 6/4 with Hills.

[Tonibell]

[Edit: Thought better of it].

[Doobs]

First race at Donny looks particularly good to me for EW bet - Not only is it 20 runners which we know is generally good with 4 places 1/4 but Makzeem looks like a very underpriced fav to me - He took 5 races to win a maiden, admittedly running into a couple of good ones along the way but the form of his win is nothing to get excited about despite him doing it easily - He's also not been seen since July. Obviously a likely improver but think 7/2 is awful price in competitive hcap - Good for us it takes a large chunk out of the market making EW bet even more attractive

Can make a case for several others - I like Beardwood the most who's been moved trainers twice this year but looks to have improved for stepping up in trip latest with good 4th in Silver Cambridgeshire and winning last time out at first go over 10f.

He's up only 3lbs and with possible further improvement over 10f looks pretty solid - Champion jockey on board is also a plus. Decent bet for me @ 10/1 EW

Looks a good race to back 2 or 3 so welcome opinions on this one or any others people like

Like this.  Also like Malmoosa in the same race.  Trainer jockey combo not my favourite, but should have some improvement.

Also 10/1.  The place odds are very good on these two.  You are getting 5/2 on 2/1 chances.

Suggest 25 e/w both as t mar hasn't suggested an amount.

The 10/1 might be going so be quick.

[doubleup]

The race seems to have a fair degree of pace in it so that should be in beardwoods favour as he is in a minority of johnstone's horses that don't keep up with the pace.

I also like play nicely @ 25-1 with hills suggest 10 ew

[T_Mar]

First race at Donny looks particularly good to me for EW bet - Not only is it 20 runners which we know is generally good with 4 places 1/4 but Makzeem looks like a very underpriced fav to me - He took 5 races to win a maiden, admittedly running into a couple of good ones along the way but the form of his win is nothing to get excited about despite him doing it easily - He's also not been seen since July. Obviously a likely improver but think 7/2 is awful price in competitive hcap - Good for us it takes a large chunk out of the market making EW bet even more attractive

Can make a case for several others - I like Beardwood the most who's been moved trainers twice this year but looks to have improved for stepping up in trip latest with good 4th in Silver Cambridgeshire and winning last time out at first go over 10f.

He's up only 3lbs and with possible further improvement over 10f looks pretty solid - Champion jockey on board is also a plus. Decent bet for me @ 10/1 EW

Looks a good race to back 2 or 3 so welcome opinions on this one or any others people like

Like this.  Also like Malmoosa in the same race.  Trainer jockey combo not my favourite, but should have some improvement.

Also 10/1.  The place odds are very good on these two.  You are getting 5/2 on 2/1 chances.

Suggest 25 e/w both as t mar hasn't suggested an amount.

The 10/1 might be going so be quick.

Nice, was my shortlist also .. Followed you in

[JohnCharver]

The race seems to have a fair degree of pace in it so that should be in beardwoods favour as he is in a minority of johnstone's horses that don't keep up with the pace.

I also like play nicely @ 25-1 with hills suggest 10 ew

After this week this tip has to be max bet.

[doubleup]

The race seems to have a fair degree of pace in it so that should be in beardwoods favour as he is in a minority of johnstone's horses that don't keep up with the pace.

I also like play nicely @ 25-1 with hills suggest 10 ew

After this week this tip has to be max bet.

That did cross my mind


Bald is going 5 places in the 2.40 Donny although 18-1 is available elsewhere, Confessional @ 16-1 is still ok for £10ew imo. 

[DungBeetle]

Meh. People get way too stressed about a bit of punting chatter.

I like arbboy's belligerent dedication to the maths and value of each situation, while also finding the Hector fancies useful - although personally pay more attention to the rugby ones than tennis as prefer the analysis behind them.

The comparison with corporate scenarios I found pretty amusing. Have been trying to work out who i'd rather have as a colleague...

Imagine being Arb's line manager and trying to get him to do some trivial corporate task like annual health and safety training

[Doobs]

The race seems to have a fair degree of pace in it so that should be in beardwoods favour as he is in a minority of johnstone's horses that don't keep up with the pace.

I also like play nicely @ 25-1 with hills suggest 10 ew

After this week this tip has to be max bet.

That did cross my mind


Bald is going 5 places in the 2.40 Donny although 18-1 is available elsewhere, Confessional @ 16-1 is still ok for £10ew imo. 

Am on Soie d'leau 20/1 4 places and kibaar 20/1 5 places.  Hope the high numbers prevail.  Nobody home?

[tikay]

Have just got back Online Doobs, not looked around yet to see if Tighty is here, or gone AWOL.

I'll have a look & if he's not around, try & sort some of these bets out.

Not sure if it's relevant or helpful, but Wm Hill sent me one of those offers last night. I'll post it up shortly.

[tikay]

From Wm Hill.....


Hi Tony,

 A brilliant mix of racing lies ahead this weekend. There's racing over the famous Cheltenham jumps, and on the flat from Doncaster & Newbury.

And it's a bumper edition on Channel 4, with live coverage of a whopping 10 races. TEN! Meaning our racing offer hits the double figure mark:

Get money back as a free bet* if your horse finishes 2nd on any Channel 4 race.

We’re also promising not to be beaten on price* on all Cheltenham races on Channel 4.



The small print.....

*Terms Apply: Money Back 2nd. 5 or more runners must race for the offer to qualify, £25/€25 Maximum Free Bet, first selection per race only, mobile only.
We won't be beaten on price from 09:30 until 16:05 on Saturday 22nd October 2016 on the following races on this day at Cheltenham: 1:50, 3:00, 3:30 and 4:05.

[Doobs]

The race seems to have a fair degree of pace in it so that should be in beardwoods favour as he is in a minority of johnstone's horses that don't keep up with the pace.

I also like play nicely @ 25-1 with hills suggest 10 ew

After this week this tip has to be max bet.

That did cross my mind


Bald is going 5 places in the 2.40 Donny although 18-1 is available elsewhere, Confessional @ 16-1 is still ok for £10ew imo. 

Am on Soie d'leau 20/1 4 places and kibaar 20/1 5 places.  Hope the high numbers prevail.  Nobody home?

Ok can we do 15 each way both of these.  Think hills and totesport/fred.  Got to dash

[tikay]

The race seems to have a fair degree of pace in it so that should be in beardwoods favour as he is in a minority of johnstone's horses that don't keep up with the pace.

I also like play nicely @ 25-1 with hills suggest 10 ew

After this week this tip has to be max bet.

Ha, excellent, though probably a shade too subtle for some.

BOOMIO

[tikay]

First race at Donny looks particularly good to me for EW bet - Not only is it 20 runners which we know is generally good with 4 places 1/4 but Makzeem looks like a very underpriced fav to me - He took 5 races to win a maiden, admittedly running into a couple of good ones along the way but the form of his win is nothing to get excited about despite him doing it easily - He's also not been seen since July. Obviously a likely improver but think 7/2 is awful price in competitive hcap - Good for us it takes a large chunk out of the market making EW bet even more attractive

Can make a case for several others - I like Beardwood the most who's been moved trainers twice this year but looks to have improved for stepping up in trip latest with good 4th in Silver Cambridgeshire and winning last time out at first go over 10f.

He's up only 3lbs and with possible further improvement over 10f looks pretty solid - Champion jockey on board is also a plus. Decent bet for me @ 10/1 EW

Looks a good race to back 2 or 3 so welcome opinions on this one or any others people like

OK, assuming Tighty is AWOL (or just had enough of all the shite), I've done this one.

£25 EW Beardwood @ 10/1, 1.35 Donny, qtr odds, 4 places, Wm Hill.

I did this on Mobile so Money Back if 2nd I think. (first bet each race only applies).

BET PLACED