Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Bergeroo or any others  think the crazy Stephane Robert looks a decent price Vs the Russian lad?  The Frenchman is a freaky player and has these excellent weeks of tennis, then you wonder why he is kicking about the challenger tour so much.

Tightend I understand why Hector probably doesn't want to reply to the question and I also understand why you want this all to end and move on. Hector has posted a long winded response of some sort this morning.  He could have added a response to this topic on Edmund and that would be that.  A post as simple as ' I know taking the 16/1 isn't the most profitable way as the price is way too short on his actual odds to win the event, however this is the way I operate as a punter, I would love 40/1 but it isn't available so I am happy at taking the 16/1 on offer and seeing where it takes me'.  I wouldn't mind knowing just out of interest what the cut off price Hector would be willing to take.(and it's not a dig.(genuine question)

Too late it started and don't really have a strong opinion!

[OverTheBorder]

I think arb put up Murray at queens and that was a short outright price but worked out way better than his match by match prices(pre match that is). He was in a spot of bother v raonic at one point.

Murray/Djokovic don't count, there is not the same possibility of improvement/momentum as their form is more pure. The higher the odds the higher the impact of variables.

I would bet there hasn't been a tennis player over 10/1 in a comp this year that your logic would allow us to back. Hence by following maths purely this will become arbs and ricks for tikay not tips

[nellberg]

When pricing it up are you meant to assume they'll have the hardest possible draw as you go along? Is there any leeway involved?

 I.E if your guy is meant to be a 2/1 dog in the QF but the seed gets knocked out and you're now a 1/2 fav against a average player? Or in this case the market has reacted to Edmund beating a good player in Ferrer and he's now favourite in the next round.

I'm no tennis expert, but it seems difficult to get an exact price, is a ballpark figure not the best we can expect?

[Weetabix]

I wouldn't know off the top of my head. Fognini took down a clay event last season I think at a big price which brings your form/momentum theory in, a player who could lose 6-0 to a club player just because he can't be bothered then beat the best players.  So after a round his match prices became way shorter due to him turning up from the off on top form. I think he was 22/1. I wouldn't put Edmund in his bracket but he is doing a smart job so far

Pokerbroker post will have a few replies no doubt!

[Doobs]

You don't just price on the hardest possible draw.  There is no such thing as momentum.  There is no reason why you couldn't find value at over 10/1 in a tennis tournament. 

[horseplayer]

Thanks  for help those who did

[Weetabix]

1/2 9/5 4/6   First 3 round prices. You can then stick him
In at 1/2 v gasquet which is a million miles off and 4/6in the final agianst goffin or schrawtzman , again miles off and that just scraped over 16/1 so even working out with these false Edmund prices for the semi and final makes the 16/1 very stingy. Think the guys on here have had enough now but this is just for overtheborder. We could put him
In at evs v gasquet and evs v goffin and its around 27s. Again with prices Edmund will be nowhere near

Edmund makes the semi finals.  I think this result is great for the discussion.  I reckon the online tennis streams will see an increase in viewers tomorrow.

[Rubbish2407]

1/2 9/5 4/6   First 3 round prices. You can then stick him
In at 1/2 v gasquet which is a million miles off and 4/6in the final agianst goffin or schrawtzman , again miles off and that just scraped over 16/1 so even working out with these false Edmund prices for the semi and final makes the 16/1 very stingy. Think the guys on here have had enough now but this is just for overtheborder. We could put him
No at evs v gasquet and evs v goffin and its around 27s. Again with prices Edmund will be nowhere near

Edmund makes the semi finals.  I think this result is great for the discussion.  I reckon the online tennis streams will see an increase in viewers tomorrow.

And now it all makes sense. Tikay has asked Hector to put up a live one to get Arbboy back posting and send the view count through the roof. VWP Tikay VWP.

[Newportlad]

For those that are interested Edumund won today, and now faces Gasquet in the Semi Final tomorrow.

[Weetabix]

Unable to comment on this match as I haven't seen gasquet hit a ball this week, I assume he is playing fairly well as he is a 4/9 shot to beat Edmund.

[engy]

You couldn't make it up

[Jamier-Host]

Meh. People get way too stressed about a bit of punting chatter.

I like arbboy's belligerent dedication to the maths and value of each situation, while also finding the Hector fancies useful - although personally pay more attention to the rugby ones than tennis as prefer the analysis behind them.

The comparison with corporate scenarios I found pretty amusing. Have been trying to work out who i'd rather have as a colleague...

[bergeroo]

Question.

Managing a bankroll. Let's say you have a player  in a tennis tournament who you think will do well and will be overpriced/undervalued by the market. It is a tennis tournament and you back him outright e/w. Then you have the individual matches too. Let's say you have a notional bankroll of 100 points allocated to be tennis in this tournament. How much of it do you put on your man outright, how much do you put on the individual matches? Do you save some for other matches for things you spot.

 If you are backing a player outright for the tourney and then also steaming in backing him for individual matches, if you are allocating alot of your points for doing this aren't you opening yourself up to a lot of variance? Or is it actually less variance to back a bit outright and then on the individual matches, because he may well win one or two matches, so you will win all those bets and not lose it all compared to if you just bet 50 points e/w on your player and he doesn't make the final.

[Marky147]

Meh. People get way too stressed about a bit of punting chatter.

I like arbboy's belligerent dedication to the maths and value of each situation, while also finding the Hector fancies useful - although personally pay more attention to the rugby ones than tennis as prefer the analysis behind them.

The comparison with corporate scenarios I found pretty amusing. Have been trying to work out who i'd rather have as a colleague...

Never met Hector, but I know Mark, so easy answer for me.

Work with Hector, and work nights out with Argue*

[T_Mar]

First race at Donny looks particularly good to me for EW bet - Not only is it 20 runners which we know is generally good with 4 places 1/4 but Makzeem looks like a very underpriced fav to me - He took 5 races to win a maiden, admittedly running into a couple of good ones along the way but the form of his win is nothing to get excited about despite him doing it easily - He's also not been seen since July. Obviously a likely improver but think 7/2 is awful price in competitive hcap - Good for us it takes a large chunk out of the market making EW bet even more attractive

Can make a case for several others - I like Beardwood the most who's been moved trainers twice this year but looks to have improved for stepping up in trip latest with good 4th in Silver Cambridgeshire and winning last time out at first go over 10f.

He's up only 3lbs and with possible further improvement over 10f looks pretty solid - Champion jockey on board is also a plus. Decent bet for me @ 10/1 EW

Looks a good race to back 2 or 3 so welcome opinions on this one or any others people like