Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

At what spread do we bet the New York Jets? Divisional matchup on the road.

Opened 16.5 point underdogs. It's flirted with 17 in Vegas. Whilst the Jets have generally been poor against the spread this season and the Patriots have been good against the spread, the Jets' record against the Patriots is 6-0-1 in the last seven.

Do we hope for 17? 17.5? Bet the Pats now and hope for movement?

Jets +almost anything is deeply contrarian so i don't expect you'll get many bites

the Jets haven't been +16 against anyone since 2007. That said this is the worst Jets team for a decade. lack talent, no QB, part of the team (Wilkerson, Richardson said to be bad locker room influences, Revis a shodow of the player he was, Forte injured, Brandon marshall a nutcase) seem to have given up. Team is said to lack leaders top to bottom

I'll pass.

one back to you. the Steelers and Ravens hate each other. winner on Xmas day makes the play offs, loser possibly out. Steelers offense at home generally performs well. Ravens strong defense but may be missing jimmy smith who makes their back end work. Ravens offense is deeply unsexy but gets by.

last seven meetings between these two at pittsburgh decided by 3 points or less, of limited relevance except to say the worse team always plays up to spoil the other

Who have you got, Steelers -5 or Ravens +5?

I like the Steelers.

The pass protection is excellent and Baltimore aren't getting to the QB as often as they used to.

The run game is good but the left tackle v right DE/DT is a mismatch. The Steelers don't run right through the middle that well. This might be to do with teams desperately trying to stop him going straight up, too. Apart from Buffalo.

Baltimore run blocking on the left hand side ranks 19th and 26th per Football Outsiders. Pittsburgh are 1st and 8th in the same area. That's a plain and simple mismatch.

Whilst the Steelers have been pretty much bang on average in terms of their run direction choices, I'd expect them to go left more to exploit the weakness.

Fourth quarter stats are interesting: Baltimore score 1.8 fewer points on average away, where the difference is negligible for Pittsburgh. We are assuming the Ravens will be behind, so that could be significant when we have less than the important 6 points needed.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/4th-quarter-points-per-game

Line opened 3.5 but is touching 6 in places, out in the desert. I'd bet Steelers +5 and feel like I had a couple of points in hand.

4th quarter market has Steelers -0.5 at 11/10 (Christmas Choral and Scuy)

£20 for some Christmas cheer?

[Tal]

(Some people will do anything to get out of the Sound of Music sing-along)

[RickBFA]

Happy Christmas everyone

[Tal]

4th Quarter was won 21-10 by the Steelers

[tikay]

4th Quarter was won 21-10 by the Steelers

Was a fun quarter, too, most entertaining.

Good spot on the bet, nice one.

[Marky147]

4th Quarter was won 21-10 by the Steelers

Was a fun quarter, too, most entertaining.

Good spot on the bet, nice one.

I timed that pretty well, as I only flicked it on at the end of the 3rd

Incred scenes!

Good shout with the bet, Tal.

[Doobs]

4th Quarter was won 21-10 by the Steelers

Well done Tal.

Are you sure this 4th quarter betting is a good thing?  Feels like the stats are going to be slim and more importantly yiu are going to get a lot of ties, such as 7-7 and 3-3.  So if you are taking -0.5 you are giving the crucial zero to the bookies.  Would love to see more stats on this.

[Doobs]

I feel we really should just back Cue Card today.  Even if Thistlecrack is going to be a top class chaser, it is more likely to be worse than Cue Card than better.  Cue Card might be getting on, but still seems close to as good as it ever was.  I know Arbboy was all for firing the "loltraders" who put up Thistlecrack at 2/1, but I can't help thinking they weren't far out.  Suggest £50 at 5/4 in many spots.

The other one is ch'tibello in the 2.40.  It feels like The New One and My Tent or Yours are getting a bit unreliable (though that suggests MTOY was ever reliable).  Yanworth looked very good last year, but we can get 9/1 on ours, which feels a bit big (bf are 9.8/10).  Suggest 25 with me (I can get 9/1) win only.

Also backed Frodon on the machine.

[Tal]

4th Quarter was won 21-10 by the Steelers

Well done Tal.

Are you sure this 4th quarter betting is a good thing?  Feels like the stats are going to be slim and more importantly yiu are going to get a lot of ties, such as 7-7 and 3-3.  So if you are taking -0.5 you are giving the crucial zero to the bookies.  Would love to see more stats on this.

Fair question.

First time I've bet on the market. Feels like a high variance market for sure. Being in the same division, their schedules have been similar this year, so the comparison of how they have got on isn't completely misleading.

Steelers defense is more vulnerable and the team is more aggressive in play-calling.

It's not a market I'd look at every week but this was an interesting situation to me.

[arbboy]

Looks big wide at Monmore this morning from watching the first two races on the BAGS if you fancy paying for the cue card bet using the firms cash rather than your own.

[Lonohray2]

I think I owe £25, there was a bet whereby the price was gone but I offered up the £25 minutes after Tighty posted but it didn't make it to the spreadsheet.


Boost on the Grade 1 2.05 at Kempton today on everyday, 3 1/4 instead of 3 1/5, I'd like to make use of this with Minella Daddy - 8-1 is top price on the win and beats BFE current 8.6 but we are getting 2-1 on the place which is a shade under 7/4 on BFE and I like his chances regardless

Suggest £37.50 e/w with me and turn that -25 to +350, or round it off at 100 if we don't make it  

[DropTheHammer]

Hope everyone had a great Christmas.

I was backing Palace to win the 12:30 match before Pardew got sacked. The best price was 3.0, so how on earth have they gone out to 3.1 now that they have bagged one of the best relegation-avoiding managers in the game, if not THE best?

Can anyone offer an explanation? And yes, I have gone in again since the news of Pards' demise.

[Karabiner]

I feel we really should just back Cue Card today.  Even if Thistlecrack is going to be a top class chaser, it is more likely to be worse than Cue Card than better.  Cue Card might be getting on, but still seems close to as good as it ever was.  I know Arbboy was all for firing the "loltraders" who put up Thistlecrack at 2/1, but I can't help thinking they weren't far out.  Suggest £50 at 5/4 in many spots.

The other one is ch'tibello in the 2.40.  It feels like The New One and My Tent or Yours are getting a bit unreliable (though that suggests MTOY was ever reliable).  Yanworth looked very good last year, but we can get 9/1 on ours, which feels a bit big (bf are 9.8/10).  Suggest 25 with me (I can get 9/1) win only.

Also backed Frodon on the machine.

You like Ch'Tibello to win or EW David?

It's a pretty decent EW race.

[Doobs]

I feel we really should just back Cue Card today.  Even if Thistlecrack is going to be a top class chaser, it is more likely to be worse than Cue Card than better.  Cue Card might be getting on, but still seems close to as good as it ever was.  I know Arbboy was all for firing the "loltraders" who put up Thistlecrack at 2/1, but I can't help thinking they weren't far out.  Suggest £50 at 5/4 in many spots.

The other one is ch'tibello in the 2.40.  It feels like The New One and My Tent or Yours are getting a bit unreliable (though that suggests MTOY was ever reliable).  Yanworth looked very good last year, but we can get 9/1 on ours, which feels a bit big (bf are 9.8/10).  Suggest 25 with me (I can get 9/1) win only.

Also backed Frodon on the machine.

You like Ch'Tibello to win or EW David?

It's a pretty decent EW race.

I know if has a bad one in, but I still won't be rushing to take quarter first 2.  9/1 first, maybe 6/1 2nd.  So you'd want just shy of 3/1 first 2. 

[TightEnd]

Hope everyone had a great Christmas.

I was backing Palace to win the 12:30 match before Pardew got sacked. The best price was 3.0, so how on earth have they gone out to 3.1 now that they have bagged one of the best relegation-avoiding managers in the game, if not THE best?

Can anyone offer an explanation? And yes, I have gone in again since the news of Pards' demise.

because he's had one training session? defence is the main priority and i am sure he will shore it up pretty quickly

in the meantime 3.0 or 3.1 is just noise