Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Think Webster's a bet at 2.75 Arb?

He looks to be playing his best darts at the minute.  Just another 'floor' player who struggles to convert on the big stage isn't he?  Looks priced about right to me.

[arbboy]

5 races monmore 4 t6 winners so far.  Worth keeping an eye on for the xmas ex's.

[TightEnd]

Are we on Newcastle ante post 4/1 ew for the BAGS track championship?  On sky sports 5 now.  I know i put it up last year for fred and i have backed it again this year at the same price but wasn't sure if fred is on?  Would have been placed 6 months ago roughly if we are.

not recommended this year

[Tal]

At what spread do we bet the New York Jets? Divisional matchup on the road.

Opened 16.5 point underdogs. It's flirted with 17 in Vegas. Whilst the Jets have generally been poor against the spread this season and the Patriots have been good against the spread, the Jets' record against the Patriots is 6-0-1 in the last seven.

Do we hope for 17? 17.5? Bet the Pats now and hope for movement?

[TightEnd]

At what spread do we bet the New York Jets? Divisional matchup on the road.

Opened 16.5 point underdogs. It's flirted with 17 in Vegas. Whilst the Jets have generally been poor against the spread this season and the Patriots have been good against the spread, the Jets' record against the Patriots is 6-0-1 in the last seven.

Do we hope for 17? 17.5? Bet the Pats now and hope for movement?

Jets +almost anything is deeply contrarian so i don't expect you'll get many bites

the Jets haven't been +16 against anyone since 2007. That said this is the worst Jets team for a decade. lack talent, no QB, part of the team (Wilkerson, Richardson said to be bad locker room influences, Revis a shodow of the player he was, Forte injured, Brandon marshall a nutcase) seem to have given up. Team is said to lack leaders top to bottom

I'll pass.

one back to you. the Steelers and Ravens hate each other. winner on Xmas day makes the play offs, loser possibly out. Steelers offense at home generally performs well. Ravens strong defense but may be missing jimmy smith who makes their back end work. Ravens offense is deeply unsexy but gets by.

last seven meetings between these two at pittsburgh decided by 3 points or less, of limited relevance except to say the worse team always plays up to spoil the other

Who have you got, Steelers -5 or Ravens +5?

[Cavey007]

At what spread do we bet the New York Jets? Divisional matchup on the road.

Opened 16.5 point underdogs. It's flirted with 17 in Vegas. Whilst the Jets have generally been poor against the spread this season and the Patriots have been good against the spread, the Jets' record against the Patriots is 6-0-1 in the last seven.

Do we hope for 17? 17.5? Bet the Pats now and hope for movement?

Jets +almost anything is deeply contrarian so i don't expect you'll get many bites

the Jets haven't been +16 against anyone since 2007. That said this is the worst Jets team for a decade. lack talent, no QB, part of the team (Wilkerson, Richardson said to be bad locker room influences, Revis a shodow of the player he was, Forte injured, Brandon marshall a nutcase) seem to have given up. Team is said to lack leaders top to bottom

I'll pass.

one back to you. the Steelers and Ravens hate each other. winner on Xmas day makes the play offs, loser possibly out. Steelers offense at home generally performs well. Ravens strong defense but may be missing jimmy smith who makes their back end work. Ravens offense is deeply unsexy but gets by.

last seven meetings between these two at pittsburgh decided by 3 points or less, of limited relevance except to say the worse team always plays up to spoil the other

Who have you got, Steelers -5 or Ravens +5?

I'm personally passing on the handicap on both of them. In fairness I'm struggling on spreads all through the league tomorrow, lead was cut on the prediction league but still ahead. I've stuck to a load of anytime TD scorer bets for my blog this weekend. Already done the write up so a lot of player props aren't available yet annoyingly.

Powell has done well without Forte there but the previous game vs the pats the RBs only got around 100 yards between them so don't expect much there. Robby Anderson overs on yards would be a pick for me when his market is up.

I usually take anything + double figures. But the jets are really poor

[Tal]

At what spread do we bet the New York Jets? Divisional matchup on the road.

Opened 16.5 point underdogs. It's flirted with 17 in Vegas. Whilst the Jets have generally been poor against the spread this season and the Patriots have been good against the spread, the Jets' record against the Patriots is 6-0-1 in the last seven.

Do we hope for 17? 17.5? Bet the Pats now and hope for movement?

Jets +almost anything is deeply contrarian so i don't expect you'll get many bites

the Jets haven't been +16 against anyone since 2007. That said this is the worst Jets team for a decade. lack talent, no QB, part of the team (Wilkerson, Richardson said to be bad locker room influences, Revis a shodow of the player he was, Forte injured, Brandon marshall a nutcase) seem to have given up. Team is said to lack leaders top to bottom

I'll pass.

one back to you. the Steelers and Ravens hate each other. winner on Xmas day makes the play offs, loser possibly out. Steelers offense at home generally performs well. Ravens strong defense but may be missing jimmy smith who makes their back end work. Ravens offense is deeply unsexy but gets by.

last seven meetings between these two at pittsburgh decided by 3 points or less, of limited relevance except to say the worse team always plays up to spoil the other

Who have you got, Steelers -5 or Ravens +5?

I like the Steelers.

The pass protection is excellent and Baltimore aren't getting to the QB as often as they used to.

The run game is good but the left tackle v right DE/DT is a mismatch. The Steelers don't run right through the middle that well. This might be to do with teams desperately trying to stop him going straight up, too. Apart from Buffalo.

Baltimore run blocking on the left hand side ranks 19th and 26th per Football Outsiders. Pittsburgh are 1st and 8th in the same area. That's a plain and simple mismatch.

Whilst the Steelers have been pretty much bang on average in terms of their run direction choices, I'd expect them to go left more to exploit the weakness.

Fourth quarter stats are interesting: Baltimore score 1.8 fewer points on average away, where the difference is negligible for Pittsburgh. We are assuming the Ravens will be behind, so that could be significant when we have less than the important 6 points needed.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/4th-quarter-points-per-game

Line opened 3.5 but is touching 6 in places, out in the desert. I'd bet Steelers +5 and feel like I had a couple of points in hand.

[aaron1867]

Wednesday 5/1 to beat Newcastle on BD, think this could be a bet

[Jamier-Host]

Wrote a post about Top Xmas tv show but managed to lose it writing on mobile *sigh*

Anyone have any opinions? Fairly competitive this year which makes a change.

[arbboy]

Average bet under threat.  Jackpot on 109 currently after 2 sets.  2/5 to beat Joe Cullen!  Happy xmas.

Jackpot averaged 107.4 in each of the first 3 sets individually!  Is he taking the piss?

[DMorgan]

Averages bet survives, Lewis came back to earth in the fourth set

Cullen looked absolutely hammered, was pretty funny seeing him mouthing along with the 'don't take me home' chant during his throw!

[arbboy]

102.65 in the end.  Not even a sweat!

[HutchGF]

Nice to see Cullen return to type when I had the till on Cadby last round. Hope nobody backed him.

Anyone back Webster? He replenished the Hutch fund after the Cadby accident.

[arbboy]

5/1 Lewis 4-0 v Cullen!  Sorry for the Adz style after timing!

[Tal]

5/1 Lewis 4-0 v Cullen!  Sorry for the Adz style after timing!