Tips for Tikay

[Woodsey]

Ahh, knew it would be me.....Cheers

[Marky147]

Sorry about that, wasn't at desk this morning.

[Doobs]

OK then, the Superbowl

Lines are Patriots -3 Points o/u 58 (highest point line in 51 Super-Bowls)

Key strategy match up: How does the NE D stop the Atlanta O? I think it could well do and like the unders but thats not what i want to write about

I have been looking at the Patriots Offense against the Atlanta Defense and trying to look at match ups for player props/angles etc.

The Atlanta defense is young and upcoming but faces a major task stopping Brady. The general assumption is that Brady will test out the Atlanta secondary but I think a bit differently. I think one of the aims has to be to control the clock (which would help the under) and keep Atlanta's offense off the field

In this respect it has one major advantage

The Falcons missed 136 tackles this season (2nd-most in the league), and allowed 2.89 yards after contact per attempt (most in NFL). These stats from ProFootballFocus.

Put simply the Patriots are going to run at them, a lot

A fortnight ago when we backed Dion Lewis the game plan identified correctly was that the Pats would look to get away from Houston's stout defensive line and use the running backs in the receiving game to take the ball away from the middle

Here the strategy is going to be to run AT the middle and thus the key player is the Patriots battering ram RB LeGarrette Blount

Blount is coming off a career year.

1161 rushing yards on 299 attempts at just under 4ypc

I have become convinced that he will be at the heart of the Patriots offensive plan this weekend

Blount has logged nine games this season with three-plus missed tackles created. 42 missed tackles total. Of his 1,161 rushing yards. 741 yards came after contact. He has 3 40+ yard runs this year, at odds with the general view that he is a short yardage back

This directly plays to the weakness on the Atlanta defense mentioned above. Along their front seven, four key players—linebackers Vic Beasley, Deion Jones and De'Vondre Campbell and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett—are in either their first or second season.

The Falcons run defense allowed an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game (17th) and 15 rushing touchdowns (tied for 18th) this year and gave up an average of 4.5 yards per carry, which ranked 25th during the regular season.

Firstly, a boring recommendation

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-atlanta-falcons/total-rushing-yds-legarrette-blount

Iwouldn't be surprised to see quotes of o/u 60 be wrong by a factor of 50%. could easily see 90-100 yards

Skybet o55.5 at 10/11 we can't do. Someone might be able to so Bet365 o60.5 5/6 for us

Secondly, the flier from left field

There have been 50 super-bowls

27 of those 50 matches have seen the MVP won by a QB

This time round it is is expected to be a high scoring game and if it is a 33-30 type game then its going to take something special for either of Brady or Ryan not to win it (its only once been won by a player on the losing team)

but we all know this and so do the prices. The two quarterbacks take out a huge percentage of the market at 10/11 7/4 16/1 bar the QBs

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-atlanta-falcons/superbowl-mvp

Looking at MVP awards again, after 27 QBs the next most frequent position is Running back with 7/50. High profile position, prospect of someone scoring multiple touchdowns or the winning touchdown etc

If we ally my view that Blount should have a big game with instinctively wanting to be under 58 points then the 25/1 widely available on Blount is a price i simply can't resist

Add to this that Blount is a "bad boy made good" so the story/narrative is impeccable., went to eastern missisippi (the college that featured in the netflix series "Lastchance U" ) after failing academically and was subsequently indefintely suspended at Oregon (http://www.espn.com/college-football/news/story?id=4446898). Has been cut twice as a pro and was a Bill Belicheck reclamation project

Who votes for the Superbowl MVP?

20% of the votes is from fans during the game online or mobile. 80% of the vote is from 16 journalists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_Most_Valuable_Player_Award

I have left the Blount anytime touchdown scorer market alone, 4/6 ish. He is of course a genuine candidate for first touchdown scorer at 8/1 co-favourite of three

If he does that though, we are at least in the starting stalls for the MVP trophy so lets go for it

Recommendations

LeGarrette Blount o60.5 yards rushing 5/6 Bet365 £help please

or

LeGarrette Blount o55.5 yards rushing 17/20 Ladbrokes £help please

(note, UK firms cut our margins on o/u player props about 18 months ago. Skybet 10/11 a nice exception here)

LeGarrette Blount Superbowl MVP 25-1 Coral £10 

Got you £60 on with 365 over 60.5 at 5/6.

Assume you can do coral

[TightEnd]

we can do Coral yes, if tikay wants

same for Bergeroo's Joseph tenner, if tikay wants it

[ripple11]

OK then, the Superbowl

Lines are Patriots -3 Points o/u 58 (highest point line in 51 Super-Bowls)

Key strategy match up: How does the NE D stop the Atlanta O? I think it could well do and like the unders but thats not what i want to write about

I have been looking at the Patriots Offense against the Atlanta Defense and trying to look at match ups for player props/angles etc.

The Atlanta defense is young and upcoming but faces a major task stopping Brady. The general assumption is that Brady will test out the Atlanta secondary but I think a bit differently. I think one of the aims has to be to control the clock (which would help the under) and keep Atlanta's offense off the field

In this respect it has one major advantage

The Falcons missed 136 tackles this season (2nd-most in the league), and allowed 2.89 yards after contact per attempt (most in NFL). These stats from ProFootballFocus.

Put simply the Patriots are going to run at them, a lot

A fortnight ago when we backed Dion Lewis the game plan identified correctly was that the Pats would look to get away from Houston's stout defensive line and use the running backs in the receiving game to take the ball away from the middle

Here the strategy is going to be to run AT the middle and thus the key player is the Patriots battering ram RB LeGarrette Blount

Blount is coming off a career year.

1161 rushing yards on 299 attempts at just under 4ypc

I have become convinced that he will be at the heart of the Patriots offensive plan this weekend

Blount has logged nine games this season with three-plus missed tackles created. 42 missed tackles total. Of his 1,161 rushing yards. 741 yards came after contact. He has 3 40+ yard runs this year, at odds with the general view that he is a short yardage back

This directly plays to the weakness on the Atlanta defense mentioned above. Along their front seven, four key players—linebackers Vic Beasley, Deion Jones and De'Vondre Campbell and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett—are in either their first or second season.

The Falcons run defense allowed an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game (17th) and 15 rushing touchdowns (tied for 18th) this year and gave up an average of 4.5 yards per carry, which ranked 25th during the regular season.

Firstly, a boring recommendation

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-atlanta-falcons/total-rushing-yds-legarrette-blount

Iwouldn't be surprised to see quotes of o/u 60 be wrong by a factor of 50%. could easily see 90-100 yards

Skybet o55.5 at 10/11 we can't do. Someone might be able to so Bet365 o60.5 5/6 for us

Secondly, the flier from left field

There have been 50 super-bowls

27 of those 50 matches have seen the MVP won by a QB

This time round it is is expected to be a high scoring game and if it is a 33-30 type game then its going to take something special for either of Brady or Ryan not to win it (its only once been won by a player on the losing team)

but we all know this and so do the prices. The two quarterbacks take out a huge percentage of the market at 10/11 7/4 16/1 bar the QBs

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-atlanta-falcons/superbowl-mvp

Looking at MVP awards again, after 27 QBs the next most frequent position is Running back with 7/50. High profile position, prospect of someone scoring multiple touchdowns or the winning touchdown etc

If we ally my view that Blount should have a big game with instinctively wanting to be under 58 points then the 25/1 widely available on Blount is a price i simply can't resist

Add to this that Blount is a "bad boy made good" so the story/narrative is impeccable., went to eastern missisippi (the college that featured in the netflix series "Lastchance U" ) after failing academically and was subsequently indefintely suspended at Oregon (http://www.espn.com/college-football/news/story?id=4446898). Has been cut twice as a pro and was a Bill Belicheck reclamation project

Who votes for the Superbowl MVP?

20% of the votes is from fans during the game online or mobile. 80% of the vote is from 16 journalists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_Most_Valuable_Player_Award

I have left the Blount anytime touchdown scorer market alone, 4/6 ish. He is of course a genuine candidate for first touchdown scorer at 8/1 co-favourite of three

If he does that though, we are at least in the starting stalls for the MVP trophy so lets go for it

Recommendations

LeGarrette Blount o60.5 yards rushing 5/6 Bet365 £help please

or

LeGarrette Blount o55.5 yards rushing 17/20 Ladbrokes £help please

(note, UK firms cut our margins on o/u player props about 18 months ago. Skybet 10/11 a nice exception here)

LeGarrette Blount Superbowl MVP 25-1 Coral £10 

Got you £60 on with 365 over 60.5 at 5/6.

Assume you can do coral

markets suspended for me ....Fred making waves again.

[arbboy]

Simple question for a nfl rookie punter.  If NE are going to run so much why is the total at a record high and why is channing putting up over 58 points as a bet if the clock is going to run so much on NE possessions?

[TightEnd]

Simple question for a nfl rookie punter.  If NE are going to run so much why is the total at a record high and why is channing putting up over 58 points as a bet if the clock is going to run so much on NE possessions?

well it might go over 58, and Neil could well be right

I think the consensus is that NE will throw a lot and will have to do so to keep up with Atlanta's offense. thats why the total is at a record high. in part it might be at a record high because Vegas expects the public to want to go over any reasonable total anyway. public = backs overs, backs favourites etc

Another way is for NE to try to get ahead, or if not keep it close and bleed clock. The fewer possessions Atlanta gets the less they can score

To my mind, given Belichek has a fortnight to game plan this and will have pored over the match-ups and always gets game plans right is to attack a weakness, Atlanta's run defense 

If I am wrong, no problem but my reading screams to me that this is one of the best match ups in the game on either O v either D

[arbboy]

Simple question for a nfl rookie punter.  If NE are going to run so much why is the total at a record high and why is channing putting up over 58 points as a bet if the clock is going to run so much on NE possessions?

well it might go over 58, and Neil could well be right

I think the consensus is that NE will throw a lot and will have to do so to keep up with Atlanta's offense. thats why the total is at a record high. in part it might be at a record high because Vegas expects the public to want to go over any reasonable total anyway. public = backs overs, backs favourites etc

Another way is for NE to try to get ahead, or if not keep it close and bleed clock. The fewer possessions Atlanta gets the less they can score

To my mind, given Belichek has a fortnight to game plan this and will have pored over the match-ups and always gets game plans right is to attack a weakness, Atlanta's run defense 

If I am wrong, no problem but my reading screams to me that this is one of the best match ups in the game on either O v either D

Cheers for reply.  I have no idea i was just interested in your thought process that was all.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/raymond-van-barneveld-v-adrian-lewis/winner

Usual drill for the PL darts.  Rinse repeat every year.  Still value.  Coin flip games the draw should be shorter than 7/2.  Lets have £200 on the draw at 7/2 with various places if someone can get us on.

[arbboy]

Do we still have Marathon bet?  4/1 here the draw is wrong as well.  £200 on that as well if we can.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/kim-huybrechts-v-james-wade/winner

[exstream]

Do we still have Marathon bet?  4/1 here the draw is wrong as well.  £200 on that as well if we can.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/kim-huybrechts-v-james-wade/winner

how wrong is it?
does it not make the mvg, taylor and wright games a bet on the draw too
lucky 31!

[arbboy]

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18585473/super-bowl-li-biggest-bets-nevada-sportsbooks-atlanta-falcons-new-england-patriots-super-bowl

Some comedy bets struck in vegas for comedy amounts.  Imagine rocking up into your local lolbrokes shop in the UK and getting some of these on.  1/8 no overtime at hills was a pretty shrewd wager.

[arbboy]

Do we still have Marathon bet?  4/1 here the draw is wrong as well.  £200 on that as well if we can.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/kim-huybrechts-v-james-wade/winner

how wrong is it?
does it not make the mvg, taylor and wright games a bet on the draw too
lucky 31!

I make the Wade game a lot closer to a coin flip than the market does.  I would be laying Wade at the prices.  Draw prices are never 'that' wrong but these two are wrong.

[TightEnd]

Do we still have Marathon bet?  4/1 here the draw is wrong as well.  £200 on that as well if we can.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/kim-huybrechts-v-james-wade/winner

i dont have the marathon bet login, not sure if an account is funded

[Cavey007]

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18585473/super-bowl-li-biggest-bets-nevada-sportsbooks-atlanta-falcons-new-england-patriots-super-bowl

Some comedy bets struck in vegas for comedy amounts.  Imagine rocking up into your local lolbrokes shop in the UK and getting some of these on.  1/8 no overtime at hills was a pretty shrewd wager.

Agreed on the overtime bet. If you've got the money you should be quids in. no overtime in any Superbowl ever.... So far.