Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18585473/super-bowl-li-biggest-bets-nevada-sportsbooks-atlanta-falcons-new-england-patriots-super-bowl

Some comedy bets struck in vegas for comedy amounts.  Imagine rocking up into your local lolbrokes shop in the UK and getting some of these on.  1/8 no overtime at hills was a pretty shrewd wager.

Agreed on the overtime bet. If you've got the money you should be quid in no overtime in any Superbowl ever.... So far.

Given the margins they bet to they must have been laying 4/1 or 5/1 overtime happens!  They probably lay that to mugs though so are happy 'giving' it away on the jolly old fav.

[tikay]

we can do Coral yes, if tikay wants

same for Bergeroo's Joseph tenner, if tikay wants it

Yes please.

[TightEnd]

£10 Blount MVP 25-1 coral is on

£10 Joseph 7-1 with Bergeroo confirmed

[bergeroo]

Booked £10 Joseph on PP at 7-1

[Stopsleyhatter]

Really like tightys theory about NE running the ball down the falcons throat.Tied in with that they could go multiple tight end sets in the red zone to help blocking.This brings in little used Lengel who can run routes off chip blocks down the seam.At 6"7 he's worth a dart at 12/1 for an anytime td for people looking at multiple bets.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/raymond-van-barneveld-v-adrian-lewis/winner

Usual drill for the PL darts.  Rinse repeat every year.  Still value.  Coin flip games the draw should be shorter than 7/2.  Lets have £200 on the draw at 7/2 with various places if someone can get us on.

Draw
Barneveld v adrian lewis Winner
7/2
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £225.00


not £200 solely because i am trying to look after account balances on the active accounts which are lower than ideal

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/raymond-van-barneveld-v-adrian-lewis/winner

Usual drill for the PL darts.  Rinse repeat every year.  Still value.  Coin flip games the draw should be shorter than 7/2.  Lets have £200 on the draw at 7/2 with various places if someone can get us on.

Draw
Barneveld v adrian lewis Winner
7/2
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £225.00


not £200 solely because i am trying to look after account balances on the active accounts which are lower than ideal

No worries.  Def worth funding Marathon when you get a chance as they bet to tiny margins on darts and are usually biggest the draws as well from memory.

[Cavey007]

One that I was looking at was under 1.5 yards for shortest TD. Steve fezzik put up a good arguement for it. 15% of TDs are scored from the 1. If you're expecting 7 TDs or so (given the totals) then you've got a decent shot at it. (He reckoned around 70% chance of one given those figures)

Also, with both teams liking the pass, if there's PI in the end zone that'll spot it at the 1. With Blount in as smasher. Even a Brady qb sneak. Although surprisingly he hasn't scored all year. (Incidentally Brady is 10/1 anytime at some places)

Not big odds. You're looking at 4/6 pretty much everywhere that offers it.

I've got a ton of stats and a ton of prop bets I've looked at this week, going to be a real effort to narrow down which ones to choose and which to leave out. Trying to figure out what stats are actually relevant is a struggle too. For example. The Patriots haven't scored in the first quarter of any of their 6 previous Superbowls. Is that relevant given its different players, against a different defence? If you think it's relevant (and mix in the fact the falcons have 8 consecutive games with an opening drive TD) You can get 4/6 on Falcons +0.5 or +1 depending where you look.

[TightEnd]

Really like tightys theory about NE running the ball down the falcons throat.Tied in with that they could go multiple tight end sets in the red zone to help blocking.This brings in little used Lengel who can run routes off chip blocks down the seam.At 6"7 he's worth a dart at 12/1 for an anytime td for people looking at multiple bets.

remind me of this on Sunday please

Lengel made me laugh a few weeks ago. scored a TD and even seasoned NFLwatchers were saying "who?"

BB has a habit of game-planning little used players in these games

[TightEnd]

One that I was looking at was under 1.5 yards for shortest TD. Steve fezzik put up a good arguement for it. 15% of TDs are scored from the 1. If you're expecting 7 TDs or so (given the totals) then you've got a decent shot at it. (He reckoned around 70% chance of one given those figures)

Also, with both teams liking the pass, if there's PI in the end zone that'll spot it at the 1. With Blount in as smasher. Even a Brady qb sneak. Although surprisingly he hasn't scored all year. (Incidentally Brady is 10/1 anytime at some places)

Not big odds. You're looking at 4/6 pretty much everywhere that offers it.

I've got a ton of stats and a ton of prop bets I've looked at this week, going to be a real effort to narrow down which ones to choose and which to leave out. Trying to figure out what stats are actually relevant is a struggle too. For example. The Patriots haven't scored in the first quarter of any of their 6 previous Superbowls. Is that relevant given its different players, against a different defence? If you think it's relevant (and mix in the fact the falcons have 8 consecutive games with an opening drive TD) You can get 4/6 on Falcons +0.5 or +1 depending where you look.

under 1.5 yards shortest was on my list too

previous six super-bowls more or less irrelevant, i think

the Atlanta having scored on 8 opening drives in a row is relevant to the extent its this roster.

[arbboy]

Less chance of a 1 yarder relatively though because both teams are so high scoring a bigger % than normal % of their touchdowns are not 1 yarders compared to teams who run the ball more?  No idea just asking.  If not then the 4/6 looks big based on stats.

[Tal]

Less chance of a 1 yarder relatively though because both teams are so high scoring a bigger % than normal % of their touchdowns are not 1 yarders compared to teams who run the ball more?  No idea just asking.  If not then the 4/6 looks big based on stats.

Pass interference calls make the difference nowadays. If a player is fouled in the endzone, the ball gets placed on the 1 yard line. Normal fouls are at the spot of the foul, so even that gets big gains on deep throws. And boy do those zebras love their flags.

For this bet, you often look for teams that like to throw the ball deep in situations where the defensive backs will have difficulty against the receivers, one on one.

High scoring, pass-oriented teams is basically ideal. Add in "Blount Force Trauma" and the 1-2 punch of Coleman and Freeman and the bet makes a lot of sense.

I'm sure it's been bigger than 4/6 in the past, although we've had more defensive (fewer predicted touchdowns) Super Bowls of late.

[Cavey007]

Less chance of a 1 yarder relatively though because both teams are so high scoring a bigger % than normal % of their touchdowns are not 1 yarders compared to teams who run the ball more?  No idea just asking.  If not then the 4/6 looks big based on stats.

I would assume that they score both score more from distance than the average. Championship games there was a 1yd TD in each of them. Pats scored one. Falcons conceded one. Previous week. Both scored a TD from the 1. So seems a decent shout. Especially if Tighty is expecting the pats to run a lot. Shouldn't be a massive amount of big yardage gains

[bookiebasher]

Hills going 53.5 on Tighty's tip if anyone wishes to get on.

[Cavey007]

Player prop bets

I'm on Hooper o11.5 yards from Skybet (was way under the 22ish everywhere else)
I think Mitchell overs (20.5) looks good, although Brady has never thrown a pass to a rookie in a Superbowl, he's been out and seems to have been forgotten about.
I mentioned Marty Bennett u42.5 earlier in the week but I'm unsure on that now.
From an Atlanta point I think it could be a Coleman match, no real evidence for it, just a hunch. I'm on him 2 or more at 10s. His rushing yards, and his rec. yards are little close to the bone for me to pick though.
Might sound silly but Brady u3.5 rush yards... I don't think he'll scramble much, and if he takes knees a at the end of the match he'll lose a yard a go. Again I don't think I'll bet on it as there's always the chance of a scramble, but wouldn't be surprised if it comes in.