Tips for Tikay

[hhyftrftdr]

The clip was emptied on Snodgrass yeah?

[TightEnd]

The clip was emptied on Snodgrass yeah?

i cogitated, then the West Ham fan posted to say he might not start so parked it

He didn't start

who did get MOTM? who was co-comm?

[tikay]

Burton lost last night, which is good for us, though they beat QPR at the weekend. Without those 3 points v QPR, we'd be in great shape now.

We are still reasonably placed though.

[TightEnd]

There is a mis-pricing in one of the Six Nations sub-markets

It is Paddy Power only so relying on marky147 awakening from his slumbers please to place this, i would think

top england try scorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-specials/top-tryscorer

Now normally you would look at Wingers in these markets

England are firm favourites for the title, should be scoring plenty of points (and bonus points have come in for 4+ tries in a game, so incidence of try scoring could increase this year)

For England though there should be plenty of rotation at the wing positions

Jonny May and Elliott Daly (out of position) start on Saturday

Jack Nowell is on the bench

Anthony Watson is out for the first two weeks with a hamstring but was an automatic choice before injury

so it should be that the points scoring potential from the wing position is split


indeed with England's injuries, and key players coming back from injury, and with their strength in depth that there will be rotation across a lot of the starting XV this 6N

Which would make this a market where you need 2-3-4 tries to win, only and you ideally need to be playing for the key third game (for points), Italy at home 

Jonny May is a short favourite based off the expectation that he will play through the championship. He could well do so, but he'll have to hold off Nowell and Watson both of who i rate highly.

May has 8 tries in 22 games

Jonathan Joseph

13 tries in 29 caps. In three games has scored 2+ tries

Fitness permitting unlikely to be rotated, world class player at outside centre, breaks open defences and the type of player that is needed there because England play two 10s at 10-12 with Farrell in the centre and its a bit humdrum without that spark

should play all five games, could well be British Lons number 12 and is very good indeed.

watch him create tries out of nothing



The 4/1 - 9/2 quotes elsewhere are about right

PP offer us 7/1. At least two points too high

Recommendation. J Joseph top Egland try scorer Six Nations 7/1 PaddyPower. £ what you can get on

[Archer]

The clip was emptied on Snodgrass yeah?

i cogitated, then the West Ham fan posted to say he might not start so parked it

He didn't start

who did get MOTM? who was co-comm?

Gabriel Jesus    MOTM

Hoddle and Hargreaves

[TightEnd]

starts tonight

thoughts welcome

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

starts tonight

thoughts welcome

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts/whitewash-in-tournament

Was just going through the markets actually.  Didn't we back this at odds against one year?  Sure i did some maths on it being a 2/7 shot or something like that?  Might be even shorter than that this year given how dominant the top 2 in the world are and, more importantly, how bad the bottom 2 or 3 are relatively.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts/any-whitewash

Betway go 2/5.  Think that must be a spot of value.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts/will-any-player-average-over-114-5-in-a-match

No looks a big price in this surely?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts/highest-3-dart-average

betway got under 117.5!

[bergeroo]

There is a mis-pricing in one of the Six Nations sub-markets

It is Paddy Power only so relying on marky147 awakening from his slumbers please to place this, i would think

top england try scorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-specials/top-tryscorer

Now normally you would look at Wingers in these markets

England are firm favourites for the title, should be scoring plenty of points (and bonus points have come in for 4+ tries in a game, so incidence of try scoring could increase this year)

For England though there should be plenty of rotation at the wing positions

Jonny May and Elliott Daly (out of position) start on Saturday

Jack Nowell is on the bench

Anthony Watson is out for the first two weeks with a hamstring but was an automatic choice before injury

so it should be that the points scoring potential from the wing position is split


indeed with England's injuries, and key players coming back from injury, and with their strength in depth that there will be rotation across a lot of the starting XV this 6N

Which would make this a market where you need 2-3-4 tries to win, only and you ideally need to be playing for the key third game (for points), Italy at home  

Jonny May is a short favourite based off the expectation that he will play through the championship. He could well do so, but he'll have to hold off Nowell and Watson both of who i rate highly.

May has 8 tries in 22 games

Jonathan Joseph

13 tries in 29 caps. In three games has scored 2+ tries

Fitness permitting unlikely to be rotated, world class player at outside centre, breaks open defences and the type of player that is needed there because England play two 10s at 10-12 with Farrell in the centre and its a bit humdrum without that spark

should play all five games, could well be British Lons number 12 and is very good indeed.

watch him create tries out of nothing



The 4/1 - 9/2 quotes elsewhere are about right

PP offer us 7/1. At least two points too high

Recommendation. J Joseph top Egland try scorer Six Nations 7/1 PaddyPower. £ what you can get on

Not a big rugby man, but I'll back any of your suggestions blind because you very clearly know your stuff, so I bet this. If no one else got on at 7/1 then Fred can have £10 of mine. Not much, but something for the sweat/ the spready etc.

[exstream]

Phil Taylor still much better than chisnall based on averages all year
I figured 5/6 Taylor was good
Taylor still hasn't the second best average(I'm excluding cadby 5 games) and second best checkout % in the world over the past 12 months, not saying he's better than Anderson but Anderson will be ridic short vs chis no doubt

[arbboy]

Phil Taylor still much better than chisnall based on averages all year
I figured 5/6 Taylor was good
Taylor still hasn't the second best average(I'm excluding cadby 5 games) and second best checkout % in the world over the past 12 months, not saying he's better than Anderson but Anderson will be ridic short vs chis no doubt

5/6 in the prem league isn't 5/6 in a normal match remember.  There is a highly likely draw to factor in.  How short do you think Taylor should be in a match v Chis?

[Woodsey]

There is a mis-pricing in one of the Six Nations sub-markets

It is Paddy Power only so relying on marky147 awakening from his slumbers please to place this, i would think

top england try scorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-specials/top-tryscorer

Now normally you would look at Wingers in these markets

England are firm favourites for the title, should be scoring plenty of points (and bonus points have come in for 4+ tries in a game, so incidence of try scoring could increase this year)

For England though there should be plenty of rotation at the wing positions

Jonny May and Elliott Daly (out of position) start on Saturday

Jack Nowell is on the bench

Anthony Watson is out for the first two weeks with a hamstring but was an automatic choice before injury

so it should be that the points scoring potential from the wing position is split


indeed with England's injuries, and key players coming back from injury, and with their strength in depth that there will be rotation across a lot of the starting XV this 6N

Which would make this a market where you need 2-3-4 tries to win, only and you ideally need to be playing for the key third game (for points), Italy at home 

Jonny May is a short favourite based off the expectation that he will play through the championship. He could well do so, but he'll have to hold off Nowell and Watson both of who i rate highly.

May has 8 tries in 22 games

Jonathan Joseph

13 tries in 29 caps. In three games has scored 2+ tries

Fitness permitting unlikely to be rotated, world class player at outside centre, breaks open defences and the type of player that is needed there because England play two 10s at 10-12 with Farrell in the centre and its a bit humdrum without that spark

should play all five games, could well be British Lons number 12 and is very good indeed.

watch him create tries out of nothing



The 4/1 - 9/2 quotes elsewhere are about right

PP offer us 7/1. At least two points too high

Recommendation. J Joseph top Egland try scorer Six Nations 7/1 PaddyPower. £ what you can get on

It looks like 12/1 on PP or am I looking in the wrong place?

https://sports.paddypower.mobi/#sport/12/Six%20Nationshttps

[exstream]

Of course but still think enough time for Taylor
He's so far ahead of chis
No idea shorter than 5/6 lol

[TightEnd]

OK then, the Superbowl

Lines are Patriots -3 Points o/u 58 (highest point line in 51 Super-Bowls)

Key strategy match up: How does the NE D stop the Atlanta O? I think it could well do and like the unders but thats not what i want to write about

I have been looking at the Patriots Offense against the Atlanta Defense and trying to look at match ups for player props/angles etc.

The Atlanta defense is young and upcoming but faces a major task stopping Brady. The general assumption is that Brady will test out the Atlanta secondary but I think a bit differently. I think one of the aims has to be to control the clock (which would help the under) and keep Atlanta's offense off the field

In this respect it has one major advantage

The Falcons missed 136 tackles this season (2nd-most in the league), and allowed 2.89 yards after contact per attempt (most in NFL). These stats from ProFootballFocus.

Put simply the Patriots are going to run at them, a lot

A fortnight ago when we backed Dion Lewis the game plan identified correctly was that the Pats would look to get away from Houston's stout defensive line and use the running backs in the receiving game to take the ball away from the middle

Here the strategy is going to be to run AT the middle and thus the key player is the Patriots battering ram RB LeGarrette Blount

Blount is coming off a career year.

1161 rushing yards on 299 attempts at just under 4ypc

I have become convinced that he will be at the heart of the Patriots offensive plan this weekend

Blount has logged nine games this season with three-plus missed tackles created. 42 missed tackles total. Of his 1,161 rushing yards. 741 yards came after contact. He has 3 40+ yard runs this year, at odds with the general view that he is a short yardage back

This directly plays to the weakness on the Atlanta defense mentioned above. Along their front seven, four key players—linebackers Vic Beasley, Deion Jones and De'Vondre Campbell and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett—are in either their first or second season.

The Falcons run defense allowed an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game (17th) and 15 rushing touchdowns (tied for 18th) this year and gave up an average of 4.5 yards per carry, which ranked 25th during the regular season.

Firstly, a boring recommendation

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-atlanta-falcons/total-rushing-yds-legarrette-blount

Iwouldn't be surprised to see quotes of o/u 60 be wrong by a factor of 50%. could easily see 90-100 yards

Skybet o55.5 at 10/11 we can't do. Someone might be able to so Bet365 o60.5 5/6 for us

Secondly, the flier from left field

There have been 50 super-bowls

27 of those 50 matches have seen the MVP won by a QB

This time round it is is expected to be a high scoring game and if it is a 33-30 type game then its going to take something special for either of Brady or Ryan not to win it (its only once been won by a player on the losing team)

but we all know this and so do the prices. The two quarterbacks take out a huge percentage of the market at 10/11 7/4 16/1 bar the QBs

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-atlanta-falcons/superbowl-mvp

Looking at MVP awards again, after 27 QBs the next most frequent position is Running back with 7/50. High profile position, prospect of someone scoring multiple touchdowns or the winning touchdown etc

If we ally my view that Blount should have a big game with instinctively wanting to be under 58 points then the 25/1 widely available on Blount is a price i simply can't resist

Add to this that Blount is a "bad boy made good" so the story/narrative is impeccable., went to eastern missisippi (the college that featured in the netflix series "Lastchance U" ) after failing academically and was subsequently indefintely suspended at Oregon (http://www.espn.com/college-football/news/story?id=4446898). Has been cut twice as a pro and was a Bill Belicheck reclamation project

Who votes for the Superbowl MVP?

20% of the votes is from fans during the game online or mobile. 80% of the vote is from 16 journalists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_Most_Valuable_Player_Award

I have left the Blount anytime touchdown scorer market alone, 4/6 ish. He is of course a genuine candidate for first touchdown scorer at 8/1 co-favourite of three

If he does that though, we are at least in the starting stalls for the MVP trophy so lets go for it

Recommendations

LeGarrette Blount o60.5 yards rushing 5/6 Bet365 £help please

or

LeGarrette Blount o55.5 yards rushing 17/20 Ladbrokes £help please

(note, UK firms cut our margins on o/u player props about 18 months ago. Skybet 10/11 a nice exception here)

LeGarrette Blount Superbowl MVP 25-1 Coral £10 

[TightEnd]

There is a mis-pricing in one of the Six Nations sub-markets

It is Paddy Power only so relying on marky147 awakening from his slumbers please to place this, i would think

top england try scorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/england-specials/top-tryscorer

Now normally you would look at Wingers in these markets

England are firm favourites for the title, should be scoring plenty of points (and bonus points have come in for 4+ tries in a game, so incidence of try scoring could increase this year)

For England though there should be plenty of rotation at the wing positions

Jonny May and Elliott Daly (out of position) start on Saturday

Jack Nowell is on the bench

Anthony Watson is out for the first two weeks with a hamstring but was an automatic choice before injury

so it should be that the points scoring potential from the wing position is split


indeed with England's injuries, and key players coming back from injury, and with their strength in depth that there will be rotation across a lot of the starting XV this 6N

Which would make this a market where you need 2-3-4 tries to win, only and you ideally need to be playing for the key third game (for points), Italy at home 

Jonny May is a short favourite based off the expectation that he will play through the championship. He could well do so, but he'll have to hold off Nowell and Watson both of who i rate highly.

May has 8 tries in 22 games

Jonathan Joseph

13 tries in 29 caps. In three games has scored 2+ tries

Fitness permitting unlikely to be rotated, world class player at outside centre, breaks open defences and the type of player that is needed there because England play two 10s at 10-12 with Farrell in the centre and its a bit humdrum without that spark

should play all five games, could well be British Lons number 12 and is very good indeed.

watch him create tries out of nothing



The 4/1 - 9/2 quotes elsewhere are about right

PP offer us 7/1. At least two points too high

Recommendation. J Joseph top Egland try scorer Six Nations 7/1 PaddyPower. £ what you can get on

It looks like 12/1 on PP or am I looking in the wrong place?

https://sports.paddypower.mobi/#sport/12/Six%20Nationshttps

top England try scorer NOT top six nations try scorer

have 25-1 and 40-1 recommendations on those in a column tomorrow