Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

USPGA Golf.

No course form to consider so I am going for a person who has been consistent in the Majors this year, Matt Kuchar. He has also not missed a cut this season and has had a tournament win. He also recently relaid his back garden with Paspalum grass to get some practice on it ( that fact may not be entirely true!).

Suggest £5 e/w 36-1 Blue Square.

With my new found ability to back complete donkeys in Golf tournaments I am going to use this skill for good rather than evil. Phil Mickleson is playing awfully and has missed the cut in 2 out of his last 4 events and this is a really tough field. He has had an injury this season and has withdrawn after 1 round of a tournament.

Suggest £20 he misses the cut 12/5 Bet Fred.

That is very interesting, & tempting.

I know he has been bang out of sorts, but he is a very special player indeed, by any yardstick, & cometh the Majors, cometh the Man. I'm inclined to think ( = guess) he will find his game this week.

What do others think?

i'd oppose it. The best players show why they are the best players on the hardest courses.

Thanks Tom.

As it happens, the meerket is now closed, I would assume, as play has commenced.

[redarmi]

In the womens boxing today Nicola Adams is 5/6-4/5 type of price.  She has faced this opponent on two occasions in world finals and lost on both occasions.  There is little doubt she will get the benefit of sympathetic judging and CanCan Ren has had harder fights but surely 6/5 on Betfair is too big about the Chinese fighter?

[TL900]

One of the specials on skybet today for the olympics is:

Bolt to win 200m      1/6
Rudisha to win 800m      1/12
Taylor to win Triple Jump     4/7

11/10 all together

This seems very good value I have placed the odds for them in those events next to them. Rudisha seems pretty much a lock as he is immense. I struggle to see bolt losing. Although I don't know alot about triple jump the second favourite is 11/2 so taylor looks like a decent favourite.

I think there could be some decent value in this bet.

http://www.skybet.com/athletics/enhanced-accumulators/event/14253693

Im on it, gl if you are too.


EDIT : ive just looked on william hill and for these 3 to all win u get 0.89/1 so there is definitely some value in this imo.

[redarmi]

I don't mind this actually unfortunately Fred doesn't bet with Skybet and the 10/11 isn't value.  Think in general faves in athletics are overpriced because of fav-longshot bias.  Odds compilers only do this every couple of years and are petrified of laying a 33-1 winner so they make the rags artificially short.  Nobody every lost their job for being 1/4 about a 1/6 shot and bookies in general love to lay a short one even if it is value.

[TheChipPrince]

Betfred were 5/4 same treble earlier, not sure if offer still on

[TightEnd]

In the womens boxing today Nicola Adams is 5/6-4/5 type of price.  She has faced this opponent on two occasions in world finals and lost on both occasions.  There is little doubt she will get the benefit of sympathetic judging and CanCan Ren has had harder fights but surely 6/5 on Betfair is too big about the Chinese fighter?

Looks good. As you say, the worry is how susceptible the judges are to home crowd etc

[redarmi]

You won't get rich backing this but Bwin go 1/6 about a Jamaican 1-2 in the 200m final.

Given Bolt is 1.21-1.22 and Blake 6-6.2 for the win, and you've also got a third Jamaican running for you in the bet, I would suggest this is a pretty massive price.

Exchange is 1.18-1.23 for buttons so you might get done at 1/5 there if patient.

Not sure how you feel about 'buying money' but this rates a decent spot in my book.

Like the bet, Ed, but we don't have the roll to make a bet worthwhile at those odds, but thanks anyway.

Incidentally, my thinking above is one of the reasons why this is such flawed thinking Tikay.  We need to stop looking at bets in terms of actual returns and start thinking in terms of expectancy.  If a bet like this is a true 1/10 shot then it has a positive expectancy of £9.09 for a £100 stake. (90.90%*1.2=£109.09).   This is pretty much the same as getting 7/4 about a 6/4 shot with the added benefit of lower variance.  You don't need to have a bigger bet because you earn can be the same. We all love a banzai for obvious reasons but the reverse banzai is and should be a significant part of Fred's armoury.

[Bazzaboy]

In the womens boxing today Nicola Adams is 5/6-4/5 type of price.  She has faced this opponent on two occasions in world finals and lost on both occasions.  There is little doubt she will get the benefit of sympathetic judging and CanCan Ren has had harder fights but surely 6/5 on Betfair is too big about the Chinese fighter?

Looks good. As you say, the worry is how susceptible the judges are to home crowd etc

I like this as well. After a couple of shockers early on there hasn't really been too many hometown decisions. Last nights fight with Stalker being an example as that was one that could have one either way and went to the away fighter.

[tikay]

You won't get rich backing this but Bwin go 1/6 about a Jamaican 1-2 in the 200m final.

Given Bolt is 1.21-1.22 and Blake 6-6.2 for the win, and you've also got a third Jamaican running for you in the bet, I would suggest this is a pretty massive price.

Exchange is 1.18-1.23 for buttons so you might get done at 1/5 there if patient.

Not sure how you feel about 'buying money' but this rates a decent spot in my book.

Like the bet, Ed, but we don't have the roll to make a bet worthwhile at those odds, but thanks anyway.

Incidentally, my thinking above is one of the reasons why this is such flawed thinking Tikay.  We need to stop looking at bets in terms of actual returns and start thinking in terms of expectancy.  If a bet like this is a true 1/10 shot then it has a positive expectancy of £9.09 for a £100 stake. (90.90%*1.2=£109.09).   This is pretty much the same as getting 7/4 about a 6/4 shot with the added benefit of lower variance.  You don't need to have a bigger bet because you earn can be the same. We all love a banzai for obvious reasons but the reverse banzai is and should be a significant part of Fred's armoury.

The learning curve just goes on & on. Thanks for the steer, we now have a brand new arrow in our quiver thing, the old Reverse Banzai. Gulp.

If I hear the magic word, we will Max it.

So, yes, or no?

PS - What time is the first event, as I need to go offline shotly for an hour or two?

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

In the womens boxing today Nicola Adams is 5/6-4/5 type of price.  She has faced this opponent on two occasions in world finals and lost on both occasions.  There is little doubt she will get the benefit of sympathetic judging and CanCan Ren has had harder fights but surely 6/5 on Betfair is too big about the Chinese fighter?

Looks good. As you say, the worry is how susceptible the judges are to home crowd etc

I like this as well. After a couple of shockers early on there hasn't really been too many hometown decisions. Last nights fight with Stalker being an example as that was one that could have one either way and went to the away fighter.

Looks like we have a bet.

How much were you thinking for this?

[tikay]

In the womens boxing today Nicola Adams is 5/6-4/5 type of price.  She has faced this opponent on two occasions in world finals and lost on both occasions.  There is little doubt she will get the benefit of sympathetic judging and CanCan Ren has had harder fights but surely 6/5 on Betfair is too big about the Chinese fighter?

We have £40 @ 2.32 (slightly better than the target price) on Betfair, Can Can Lady to win.

ON

Cancan Ren Gold Medal Winner    2.32 £40.00 £52.80
Bet Ref: 21403081656M Bet matched: 2012-08-09T15:15:06.000Z

[tikay]

Adams won the 1st round, 4-2

[tikay]

Looking like hello another GB Gold Medal, and bye bye Fred's £40.

[tikay]

Adams wins Round 2, 5-2

[tikay]

After 3 rounds, Adams leads 14-5!