Tips for Tikay

[Graham C]

Thoughts on the 200m WR going?

2/5 No 11/5 Yes

Was thinking about this earlier, both Bolt and Blake looked very very comfy in their races and we're just over 20 secs.  Bolt had a great start too and still strolled the last 30m or whatever.  I reckon it could go, if Bolt gets his start right again and Blake is there too, it's going to be very close.

[Tal]

Thoughts on the 200m WR going?

2/5 No 11/5 Yes

Was thinking about this earlier, both Bolt and Blake looked very very comfy in their races and we're just over 20 secs.  Bolt had a great start too and still strolled the last 30m or whatever.  I reckon it could go, if Bolt gets his start right again and Blake is there too, it's going to be very close.

The real key to this is making the winner run to the line. The field looks really competitive and Bolt isn't likely to be able to ease off too early. He has three guys with him capable of sub 20. If he starts well from lane 6 (so he's running blind for the first 50), Bolt goes close to that record.

Against it, he hasn't produced that kind of form for some time.

[Tonji]

Thoughts on the 200m WR going?

2/5 No 11/5 Yes

Was thinking about this earlier, both Bolt and Blake looked very very comfy in their races and we're just over 20 secs.  Bolt had a great start too and still strolled the last 30m or whatever.  I reckon it could go, if Bolt gets his start right again and Blake is there too, it's going to be very close.

Weather forcast likely to be warm, 23 degrees. No good for me if I was running for a bus. Bolt will like it I assume.

The real key to this is making the winner run to the line. The field looks really competitive and Bolt isn't likely to be able to ease off too early. He has three guys with him capable of sub 20. If he starts well from lane 6 (so he's running blind for the first 50), Bolt goes close to that record.

Against it, he hasn't produced that kind of form for some time.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0745, Thursday August 9th

PROFIT on Month £64.50

Unsettled Bets £322.50

The spreadsheet is here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0750, Thursday August 9th

I was AWOL almost all of yesterday, so NO new bets were placed. Apologies if I missed any winning tips, & good swerve if I missed any losers.

Any recommends from yesterday that are still time valid, I'll deal with this morning.

Two bets matured yesterday, & both lost.

Our Olympics Basketball bet (Brazil, Top 3) went south for £40. We seem doomed with Basketball, I miss the winners & back the losers. This, on the whole, is a bad thing.

In Olympic Boxing, Tom Stalker gave his best, or so it seemed to me, but his Mongolian opponent was a right handful, & we got narrowly turned over, & we did a pony.

We have Team GB to be 3rd or better in the Medal Table (£50 @ 2/1), & with 4 days remaining, here's the deal.....

1  China  36 22 19 77
2  United States  34 22 25 81
3  Great Britain & N. Ireland  22 13 13 48
4  South Korea  12 7 6 25
5  Russian Federation  11 19 22 52
6  France  8 9 11 28

[Jamier-Host]

Bolt went all out for the record in the 100m and if it hadn't been for a ropey start would have beaten it. I reckon that answers the form question.

I think the bigger worry is him getting out the traps than slowing down.

[tikay]

What's coming up?

The Olympics continue, of course, with Usain Bolt in the 200m being today's headline grabber, though at present we have no £ interest. Our Boxing bet on Ivan Dychko (Super-Heavy) is tomorrow, Friday.

The big betting event today, surely, must be the the season's 4th & last Major, The PGA Championship from Kiawah Island, more on which shortly.

Round 2 of the Irish Greyhound Derby is tonight.

We have three dogs, Robbiesgoneagain (£5 @ 100/1), Tyrur Big Mike (£5 @ 50/1, + £5ew @ 33/1, now around 25/1), & Sawpit Sensation (£10 ew @ 40/1, currently 25/1 generally).

Round 2 is over TWO evenings - tonight & Saturday. Robbiesgoneagain & Sawpit both run on Saturday.

Tyrur Big Mike runs from Trap 2 in Heat 6 tonight, for which he will likely be favourite.....

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2012-08-09&raceId=1178510

Here is our fella.



 

[tikay]

The PGA Championship.

Gene Sarazen won this in 1933, & in the process set an example to Ian Poulter - "look smart, play smart".



This kid - the older of the two - won it last year, & he bounced back to form last week with another win. Sonny boy does not look best pleased.



The course looks easy......

Click to see full-size image.

....but has lots of hidden dangers.

Click to see full-size image.

TV coverage tonight is from 6pm until Midnight, though you may switch over for 20 seconds to watch Mr Bolt.

Betting? I don't know if anyone has stuck any tips up, I'll look shortly, but at present, we have not wagered a penny on it. (I think I saw a 72 hole Match Bet suggested).

Outright prices are here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/uspga-championship/winner/all

[tikay]

I have resolved to follow the BadBeat model for suggesting bets on this thread, which is precisely why I shalln't make such proposals often.

Nevertheless, one of the reasons for making a proposal is knowledge that might not be available to the odds compilers and I believe I have come by some such information.

I would certainly emplore the horse racing experts to speak before any bets are placed of course. However...

At Newbury on Sunday, a horse led by 4 lengths with a furlong to go. The jockey released her grip and the horse duly obliged in easing off. She hadn't seen the second placed horse coming and the cruise towards the line wasn't quick enough. The jockey couldn't get her ride going again and it lost by 3/4 of a length.

My father was today in the company of one of the owners of said horse. To say the owner was furious with the performance would be an understatement, as they were counting a substantial return with a furlong to go on their 5-1 horse.

The horse runs again tomorrow. Although based at Newmarket, she runs up at Pontefract in a £3,500 group 5 race. Currently around the 2-1 mark and over the same distance.

I am therefore proposing a bet (of a size on advice from those who understand such matters) on THE DUCKING STOOL in the 2.30 at Pontefract.

What does Fred think?

Fred would probably have backed this, Tal.

Fred swerves good.

[tikay]

You won't get rich backing this but Bwin go 1/6 about a Jamaican 1-2 in the 200m final.

Given Bolt is 1.21-1.22 and Blake 6-6.2 for the win, and you've also got a third Jamaican running for you in the bet, I would suggest this is a pretty massive price.

Exchange is 1.18-1.23 for buttons so you might get done at 1/5 there if patient.

Not sure how you feel about 'buying money' but this rates a decent spot in my book.

Like the bet, Ed, but we don't have the roll to make a bet worthwhile at those odds, but thanks anyway.

[tikay]

With Bwin it's a swerve as can't get on, takes ages to get paid etc

bearing this in mind....

they go 27/20 justin rose in a 72 hole match v pod in the uspga.
def a wrong price,in fact so much so i think they've inputted wrong,but you never know with these clowns.
rose 34 to bet on bfair,pod 60.

Any views on this, please?

[Tal]

I have resolved to follow the BadBeat model for suggesting bets on this thread, which is precisely why I shalln't make such proposals often.

Nevertheless, one of the reasons for making a proposal is knowledge that might not be available to the odds compilers and I believe I have come by some such information.

I would certainly emplore the horse racing experts to speak before any bets are placed of course. However...

At Newbury on Sunday, a horse led by 4 lengths with a furlong to go. The jockey released her grip and the horse duly obliged in easing off. She hadn't seen the second placed horse coming and the cruise towards the line wasn't quick enough. The jockey couldn't get her ride going again and it lost by 3/4 of a length.

My father was today in the company of one of the owners of said horse. To say the owner was furious with the performance would be an understatement, as they were counting a substantial return with a furlong to go on their 5-1 horse.

The horse runs again tomorrow. Although based at Newmarket, she runs up at Pontefract in a £3,500 group 5 race. Currently around the 2-1 mark and over the same distance.

I am therefore proposing a bet (of a size on advice from those who understand such matters) on THE DUCKING STOOL in the 2.30 at Pontefract.

What does Fred think?

Fred would probably have backed this, Tal.

Fred swerves good.

Fred is both generous and wise

[tikay]

Freds Winter Sweater.

There have been several "Season" Football bets posted up.

We don't really have the 'roll to do too many of these. Our roll is £3,000, & during the Football season, with a high volume of bets on some days, if our 'roll was depleted by (say) £1,000, we might run a bit thin, & because the season bets don't mature for so long, we could get stuck.

I propose - & would like feedback - on a seperate Fred 'roll for Season-long football bets. £1,000 should be plenty.

I loved the Barnet bet last season, so much value & fun, so I like the idea of a few Winter Football Sweaters.

Thoughts appreciated.


 

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Some information gathered on Kiawah Island

The Pete Dye designed Ocean Course at Kiawah Island has been designated the hardest course in the US by Golf Digest (source: Jan 2012 edition)

There are forecasted blustery conditions (source http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Kiawah+Island+Resort+Cougar+Point+Course+SC+1036379:5) and at 7,676 yards - if extended to its maximum format - it's the longest course in Major Championship history.

The links-style course on the South Carolinian eastern seaboard features 10 exposed holes that run along the coast

After lots of recent rain the course, and more to come see source above, will play extremely long favouring the longer bombers.

Interestingly in 2003, Pete Dye re-laid every green with a unique strain of quick drying Seashore Paspalum grass which, although similar to Bermuda grass, actually has no grain and runs quite slowly at around 11.5 on the stimp.

Putting surfaces are huge so 3-putt avoidance is key, but the Par 72 format features wide fairway landing areas hence the longer hitters who feature well in Total Driving, Ball Striking and Greens in Regulation categories will be at a real advantage.


Dustin Johnson 25/1 e/w

He's from South Carolina.

19th last week at Firestone following on from a decent 9th at Royal Lytham and a win at TPC Southwind in June. I gather from the Europan Institute of Golf Course architects, who i consulted on this, that the greens there were similar to the Paspalum grass this week (source: http://www.eigca.org/Article/EIGCA10904.ink)

His seaside record in standard PGA Tour events isn't too shabby: Pebble Beach: 1st (09 & 10), 5th (12) and 7th(08); Torrey Pines: 3rd (11);

Averaged 335 yards off the tee and was 11th in Greens in Regulation last week in Ohio and if you're looking for more motivation Johnson sits 14th in the Ryder Cup standings so needs a result this week to guarantee an automatic spot for Medinah next month.

Here's some Paspalum grass

Click to see full-size image.

To seal this being part of your portfolio, he's a ride on mower on a golf course



Finally, a stimp meter

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

If the stimp meter & ride-on-mower photos were not enough, the photo of some grass swung it for me.

Fantastic, a photo of grass, you know how to tickle my fancy, though I'm disappointed not to see a map showing is where Kiawah Island is. 

We have no PGA interest at present, so we will have a fun fiver or tenner, unless anyone thinks it is completely daft.

I'll need to place the bet in the next hour or two, so any objectors, let me know sharpish please.

Wavering?

Don't. Here's a picture of some grass AND a blackbird. Top that.

Click to see full-size image.