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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333087 times)
hector62
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« Reply #128550 on: June 25, 2017, 06:50:27 PM »

Evening Tighty.

Tomorrow the ATP Eastbourne starts. It's always difficult to find winners on grass because they play so few tournaments on the surface. I don't see Djokovic wanting a long run here as Wimbledon starts the week after, but I will still avoid his half of the draw for my selection.

My selection is Misha Zverev, a player who has blossomed late maybe spurred on by his brother. He has won 4 matches on grass this season and he was very competetive against Federer this week. I think his quarter is weak with only the enigmatic Gael Monfils as a threat. A likely semi final against Gasquet or Isner is winnable and 25-1 is available.

Suggest Misha Zverev £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Paddy Power.
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« Reply #128551 on: June 25, 2017, 08:38:48 PM »

Evening Tighty.

Tomorrow the ATP Eastbourne starts. It's always difficult to find winners on grass because they play so few tournaments on the surface. I don't see Djokovic wanting a long run here as Wimbledon starts the week after, but I will still avoid his half of the draw for my selection.

My selection is Misha Zverev, a player who has blossomed late maybe spurred on by his brother. He has won 4 matches on grass this season and he was very competetive against Federer this week. I think his quarter is weak with only the enigmatic Gael Monfils as a threat. A likely semi final against Gasquet or Isner is winnable and 25-1 is available.

Suggest Misha Zverev £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Paddy Power.

EW with 3 that are 25/1 1/3, is 22/1 1/2 better? Think you gain on the place and its similar on win. Seems it would help if you do end up HU with djork, as I posted tho its only sky at 22/1 so no good here
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« Reply #128552 on: June 25, 2017, 10:52:22 PM »

Evening Tighty.

Tomorrow the ATP Eastbourne starts. It's always difficult to find winners on grass because they play so few tournaments on the surface. I don't see Djokovic wanting a long run here as Wimbledon starts the week after, but I will still avoid his half of the draw for my selection.

My selection is Misha Zverev, a player who has blossomed late maybe spurred on by his brother. He has won 4 matches on grass this season and he was very competetive against Federer this week. I think his quarter is weak with only the enigmatic Gael Monfils as a threat. A likely semi final against Gasquet or Isner is winnable and 25-1 is available.

Suggest Misha Zverev £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Paddy Power.

I was very disappointed that several bookies went each way 1/3 on this. Would agree on djoko not putting his heart and soul in this and we would also agree we still need to pick someone in the other half which is very open

Cmon bookies, play fair, give us each way 1/2 odds!
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« Reply #128553 on: June 26, 2017, 10:21:40 AM »

Mischa Zverev Aegon International Winner
20/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Each Way (2 Places at 1/2 Odds)
Total Returns: £320.00
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« Reply #128554 on: June 26, 2017, 10:47:31 AM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/derby-plate/winner

Really wanted to put this up as a max bet on Saturday at 6/4 and 11/8 before the semi finals but i struggled to get on myself.  there is no way this dog goes off 8/13 on Saturday.  It has the perfect draw as a railer in trap 1 and t2 is slow away and should give it a solo on the inside.  It's main danger is t4 who is relatively badly drawn as a railer with a fast starting dog on its inside in t3 who is definitely more of a middle runner than a railer.  The only other serious danger is t6 who t1 has held comfortably on the last two runs.  The selection was backed from 4/6 into 1/3 at the weekend for its semi final and fell out the boxes and still led and won comfortably.  This final, given the draw, should actually be an easier race on paper and i expect the dog to go off a similar price to the semi final around the 2/5 mark.  

Not one for fred as can't get on at 365 but worth a serious interest at 8/13 for anyone who can get on.

http://greyhoundbet.racingpost.com/#card/race_id=1539587&r_date=2017-07-01&tab=form
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« Reply #128555 on: June 27, 2017, 04:21:49 PM »

A rare Greyhound bet for me! I'm on.

Any WSOP fans around? How about this. Over 6250.5 runners in the main event 1.45 or 9/20

Has beat this figure every year since 2005 Joe Hachem. Any reason why numbers might drop this year that I'm not aware of?
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« Reply #128556 on: June 27, 2017, 04:31:52 PM »

Interesting Greyhound Derby final ahead betting wise.  I run into Camel on Saturday night on his way home from RA at the semi finals at Towcester and as soon as the draw was made we were discussing what prices the favs should be and my initial thought given the draw was 6/4 each of two 4/1 hiya butt given how badly drawn the ante post and current final fav Clares rocket is.  The initial quote from the sponsors straight after the race was a comedy 4/6 CR given it had just gone off evens in a much easier race in the semi final and much better drawn.  I think they are just sick of doing their cash laying it tbh (or had no betfair to follow as a guide more likely)

https://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/greyhound-derby-2017/winner

http://greyhoundbet.racingpost.com/#card/race_id=1539590&r_date=2017-07-01&tab=form

The ante post fav will be a big loser in every firm's book so we have a situation where the currently available top price with the firms is 5/4 and the exchange price is bigger than 7/4 (because the exchange layers don't have the ante post liabilities and are pricing the race, as you should, on an individual basis).  CR is unbeaten throughout the derby it ticks all the boxes apart from the fact it is really badly drawn in box 3 with two absolute pingers on its inside in traps 1 and 2.  It is very hard to see it leading at the first bend imo.  If it doesn't i am pretty sure it will not win.

Every top price with the firms on oddschecker is bigger than the bf price.  Now which one of the five should we back against the fav is the question?  I am not entirely sure tbh at the prices.  I couldn't put you off taking any/all of the current prices and effectively laying CR at 13/8 if you can get all five prices.  It is a 97/98% book using the betfair price for CR.  I think a much better way to attack this is the top Irish market

https://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/greyhound-derby-2017/top-irish-runner

This is priced in line with the outright prices but it doesn't take into account the relative chance of CR finding trouble.  I think if you run this race 100 times CR would win it more often than TS (the second fav) would.  However i think TS should be odds on in a match bet against CR because the times CR doesn't win TS it will be involved in a lot of trouble on the rails not being able to lead and will finish 4th/5th or 6th a lot more often than TS will.  There is no reason to think TS will not run his usual race out wide away from all the early pace and power home late on. Hope that all makes sense but i think the 6/5 TS top Irish dog is a cracking bet and should be odds on imo even though he isn't the fav for the race.  I would imagine TS will be a fair bit shorter than CR in the place market on the night of the race as well.

Skybet are betting 1/5 1,2,3 on this race and TS looks a stonking ew bet at those prices tbh.  2/5 to place in the first three just looks the steal of all steals  and you are not far off the win price either.  If they go any bigger it would be close to a maximum ew bet for me.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2017, 04:55:52 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #128557 on: June 27, 2017, 04:42:05 PM »

this ok?

Tyrur Shay
Greyhound Derby 2017 Top Irish Runner
6/5
Total Stake: £100.00
Potential Returns: £220.00
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« Reply #128558 on: June 27, 2017, 04:42:51 PM »

this ok?

Tyrur Shay
Greyhound Derby 2017 Top Irish Runner
6/5
Total Stake: £100.00
Potential Returns: £220.00

Fine didn't think you could get on at coral.
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« Reply #128559 on: June 27, 2017, 05:48:21 PM »

Anyone with a VC account who doesn't mind flicking one in for me, PM please...
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« Reply #128560 on: June 27, 2017, 05:54:48 PM »

Is anyone on here registered with bookmaker.eu? Interestingly seems you can deposit via Bitcoin which I've got a few of at the moment.

They offer a few interesting NFL season prop, none at amazing odds, but still i'm pondering trying to bring more states based guys to my website.
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« Reply #128561 on: June 28, 2017, 06:07:04 AM »

A rare Greyhound bet for me! I'm on.

Any WSOP fans around? How about this. Over 6250.5 runners in the main event 1.45 or 9/20

Has beat this figure every year since 2005 Joe Hachem. Any reason why numbers might drop this year that I'm not aware of?

Morning bud.

First up, read this;

http://www.wsop.com/news/2017/Jun/9185/INSIDE-THE-NUMBERS-2017-WORLD-SERIES-OF-POKER-AT-THE-HALFWAY-POINT.html


It sort of suggests that entries are marginally up his year, about 1.5% so far. Note that the WSOP tend to "puff" their numbers to make them look as good as possible.

They don't make it clear what "entries" mean though - it almost certainly includes re-entries, & I fancy there have been more re-entry events this year.

They also don't make it clear if those Entries include the $333 Online NLH. That got over 2,500 entries.

It also includes a (Live) $365 entry thing, which has 2,500 or so entries or re-entries thus far.

The Main Event, of course, is not a re-entry. (Yet).

I think it will be very marginal.

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« Reply #128562 on: June 28, 2017, 10:43:38 AM »

Wimbledon seedings

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #128563 on: June 28, 2017, 12:39:42 PM »

This has to be the most difficult Wimbledon to pin down winners from both the men's and women's competition. 
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« Reply #128564 on: June 28, 2017, 01:25:20 PM »

This has to be the most difficult Wimbledon to pin down winners from both the men's and women's competition. 

Agreed , even more so in the mens

Thats whys Federer who is nearly 36 in has to be a lay at 5 - 2 with all the younger players snapping

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.125549192

Quite like these two coupled ........  Cilic @ 24s and Raonic @ 22s
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