Tips for Tikay

[rinswun]

That penalty kick stat has also been cited as one of the reasons that they are looking at implementing an ABBA approach to shootouts rather than ABAB. They trialled it in under 17 Euros this summer.

[FUN4FRASER]

Cheers Rob, thank you for simplifying my long ramble.  

apologies didn't see the   " the team kicking first in a shootout has a 60% chance of winning "

So just lump on team going first every time  and if the first best loses use the Martingale system

Easy Game  

Remind me Fraser - what became of Martingale?

HeHe  

[dino1980]

That penalty kick stat has also been cited as one of the reasons that they are looking at implementing an ABBA approach to shootouts rather than ABAB. They trialled it in under 17 Euros this summer.

Seems a fairer way of doing it. England still went out on penalties though

[rinswun]

Yep, after conceding a man equalising goal to a header 6 minutes into 4 minutes of injury time. Only England!

[JohnCharver]

Hi Dino

Where do you get the team to take the first penalty is 60% to win from?

I just can't see them  having that big an advantage.

Hey Keith,

I think the original research is in the Soccernomics book. There are various links that quote the 60% figure but I think they all stem from here: http://www.soccermetrics.net/paper-discussions/penalty-kick-shootout-paper-apesteguia-palacios-huerta

For balance this is a link that isn't so enamoured with their findings: http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/shooting-first-is-no-advantage-in.html?m=1

Worth noting  that the findings are from 2011 so the relevant data from the last six years aren't included.

Find it difficult to believe bookmakers don't know this stat (if it's true).

Maybe the team kicking first have a tiny edge. 51-49 or possibly 48-52..

But 60-40 would be ginormous!

Bloke on Talksport today quoted the same figure - think he had written a book about penalty shootouts.
He also said that it comes from the fact that if a player needs to score to keep his team in it, he only scores 64% of the time.

If this were true this stat looks even more exploitable.

[nuros]

Pens about to start in confed cup! Trying to find out whos taking first, stream not being helpful so far.

[nuros]

Chile

[nuros]

Only seconds available to place the bet but was an easy 3-0 win to Chile.. No portugal penalty was good, I guess they all thought they had the game deciding one!

[dino1980]

Glad you got on. It's a lot less frantic if watching on TV.  The odds are usually available as soon as extra time finishes. I load both teams into my betslip and put my desired bet on. Then as soon as I know which team is going first I delete one bet and place the other. For Germany vs England on Tuesday the 1st German PK taker was already inside the box by the time i placed my bet.

[Karabiner]

There's currently some 3.4 available about TS for Saturday's Derby final - seems generous to this *cough* judge.

Market is also betting over-broke @99.8%.

[arbboy]

 

There's currently some 3.4 available about TS for Saturday's Derby final - seems generous to this *cough* judge.

Market is also betting over-broke @99.8%.

Agreed.  Would much rather try and back it at a similar price ew with skybet 1/5 1,2,3.  I reckon it must be close to a 1/5 shot to finish in the first 3.  The jolly is just lay lay lay for me at 5/4 which the firms are.  I can't believe no one has gone 11/8 given you can just have it back with the machine at nearly 7/4 if you don't want to lay it.

The three rags are all much shorter on bf than their best prices with the firms.  Strange market.  Ante post liabs v bad draw for the jolly in the final.  Firms lol 'giving it away' to ante post 'dead' money.

[Karabiner]

There's currently some 3.4 available about TS for Saturday's Derby final - seems generous to this *cough* judge.

Market is also betting over-broke @99.8%.

Agreed.  Would much rather try and back it at a similar price ew with skybet 1/5 1,2,3.  I reckon it must be close to a 1/5 shot to finish in the first 3.  The jolly is just lay lay lay for me at 5/4 which the firms are.  I can't believe no one has gone 11/8 given you can just have it back with the machine at nearly 7/4 if you don't want to lay it.

The three rags are all much shorter on bf than their best prices with the firms.  Strange market.  Ante post liabs v bad draw for the jolly in the final.  Firms lol 'giving it away' to ante post 'dead' money.

TS is 3.55 now - I'm starting to wonder if something might be amiss.

[arbboy]

There's currently some 3.4 available about TS for Saturday's Derby final - seems generous to this *cough* judge.

Market is also betting over-broke @99.8%.

Agreed.  Would much rather try and back it at a similar price ew with skybet 1/5 1,2,3.  I reckon it must be close to a 1/5 shot to finish in the first 3.  The jolly is just lay lay lay for me at 5/4 which the firms are.  I can't believe no one has gone 11/8 given you can just have it back with the machine at nearly 7/4 if you don't want to lay it.

The three rags are all much shorter on bf than their best prices with the firms.  Strange market.  Ante post liabs v bad draw for the jolly in the final.  Firms lol 'giving it away' to ante post 'dead' money.

TS is 3.55 now - I'm starting to wonder if something might be amiss.

Coral shortened it from 2/1 to 7/4 (probably more to do with seeing money for the match bet which is now 11/10 from 6/5 even though the two are nowhere near as related as they first appear as previously discussed.

[arbboy]

Looks mid/wide at Crayford today on the bags.  

Not like me to post and then a 5-6-4 tricast sail in at decent prices straight away!

[sonour]

Looks mid/wide at Crayford today on the bags.  

Not like me to post and then a 5-6-4 tricast sail in at decent prices straight away!

5-6-4 in the next too !

xx