Tips for Tikay

[Cavey007]

NFL Week 17 line moves since opening

49ers (+6.5 to -4)!!
Browns (+14 to +6) Steelers resting Bell and Ben
Colts (pk to -5.5)
Cowboys (+1 to -3)

Why have they moved so much?

Team news.

Rams are resting their QB and RB, Goff and Gurley, and most of their offensive line
The Steelers are probably resting Big Ben and Lev Bell (as above QB and RB)
The Texans only have one player, DeAndre Hopkins, he's out for the first time in his career with injury.
Cowboys, I guess it's assumed the Eagles will phone it in too although I've not seen anything confirmed

I was hoping for some good odds on replacements for tomorrow, but they're all pretty short. I've taken a few long-shot guys but I'm not overly confident on any of them to be honest.

Kaelin Clay anytime – 20/1 (Skybet) - Damiere Byrd had been scoring well for them, but he's now on IR, so it opens the WR2 which I think will be Clay adding pace
Mike Tolbert anytime – 13/2 (Skybet) - Big fat bloke, alternative to McCoy if they want to spell him at all
Jarius Wright anytime – 7/1 (365) - Same as below, I thought the Vikings would probably give Diggs/Thielen a rest later in the game if possible, Wright has had looks all season. BUT the Vikings need the win to guarantee the #2 seed. So maybe not so much
Laquon Treadwell anytime – 10/1 (365)
DJ Foster anytime – 10/1 (Skybet) - Should have scored in recent weeks, Kerwynn Williams is still listed as questionable, although I'd imagine he's back, either way Foster will probably be the pass catching back
Jermaine Gresham anytime – 7/1 (365) - With Gabbert under centre he scored in 2 or 3 games running earlier in the year, the tight end position there has been convoluted with with Ricky Seal-Jones and even Troy Niklas getting looks now, but 7s was a big price in my eyes.

They're the ones I listed in my blog, I've also had a little on Xavier Grimble anytime for the Steelers. The Browns can't defend the tight end and Jesse James is out, so it leaves McDonald and Grimble. The back-up QB usually favours the guys he trains with, and that would be Grimble. He's 9/1 at 365.

So unfortunately nothing for TfT really, but a few I was looking at non-the-less. It's a horrible week for picking anything though so probably best to avoid!

[Ant040689]

Hi blondes.

Stoke are away at Chelsea this weekend, and go into the game with a few injury concerns at the back; Shawcross, Martins-Indi & Pieters all "doubtful", the young lad Tom Edwards picked up a knock and Zouma isn't eligible to play against his parent club. Alongside these issues our defence has been pretty shocking all season/ year, conceding the most goals out of any PL team all campaign. We've only played 2 of the "big" teams away from home this season and have been smashed in both of these, 7-2 away at Man city and 5-1 away at spurs. Chuck this in with a 4-0 loss when we played Chelsea at home and it points you in the direction of a spanking for our lads this weekend.

I'm not sure the best way to approach this, whether it be from a total Chelsea goals standpoint or handicap market. I've linked the oddchecker for the handicap results below. I really like the 4/1 offered on Chelsea -3 with Betfair. I'd recommend £20 if Fred could get on at this price. I would help but can't access Betfair from overseas.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-stoke/handicaps

Just to add to this, Glen Johnson is also is also unavailable.

great spot 

seconded well done.

[hhyftrftdr]

Hi blondes.

Stoke are away at Chelsea this weekend, and go into the game with a few injury concerns at the back; Shawcross, Martins-Indi & Pieters all "doubtful", the young lad Tom Edwards picked up a knock and Zouma isn't eligible to play against his parent club. Alongside these issues our defence has been pretty shocking all season/ year, conceding the most goals out of any PL team all campaign. We've only played 2 of the "big" teams away from home this season and have been smashed in both of these, 7-2 away at Man city and 5-1 away at spurs. Chuck this in with a 4-0 loss when we played Chelsea at home and it points you in the direction of a spanking for our lads this weekend.

I'm not sure the best way to approach this, whether it be from a total Chelsea goals standpoint or handicap market. I've linked the oddchecker for the handicap results below. I really like the 4/1 offered on Chelsea -3 with Betfair. I'd recommend £20 if Fred could get on at this price. I would help but can't access Betfair from overseas.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-stoke/handicaps

Just to add to this, Glen Johnson is also is also unavailable.

great spot 

seconded well done.

Palace likely to rest a few players tomorrow with half an eye on Southampton later in week? That's the noises I've heard but you might know differently.

Think a full strength Palace could be decent value at 12s vs us....

[Ant040689]

Hi blondes.

Stoke are away at Chelsea this weekend, and go into the game with a few injury concerns at the back; Shawcross, Martins-Indi & Pieters all "doubtful", the young lad Tom Edwards picked up a knock and Zouma isn't eligible to play against his parent club. Alongside these issues our defence has been pretty shocking all season/ year, conceding the most goals out of any PL team all campaign. We've only played 2 of the "big" teams away from home this season and have been smashed in both of these, 7-2 away at Man city and 5-1 away at spurs. Chuck this in with a 4-0 loss when we played Chelsea at home and it points you in the direction of a spanking for our lads this weekend.

I'm not sure the best way to approach this, whether it be from a total Chelsea goals standpoint or handicap market. I've linked the oddchecker for the handicap results below. I really like the 4/1 offered on Chelsea -3 with Betfair. I'd recommend £20 if Fred could get on at this price. I would help but can't access Betfair from overseas.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-stoke/handicaps

Just to add to this, Glen Johnson is also is also unavailable.

great spot 

seconded well done.

Palace likely to rest a few players tomorrow with half an eye on Southampton later in week? That's the noises I've heard but you might know differently.

Think a full strength Palace could be decent value at 12s vs us....

We often do well when the pressure is off at home against a much superior team. But yep we are probably resting a few.

Even if we aren't I just look at City and think they'll demolish us, so I'm happy to leave alone.

I worry about Palace. We play the 4-4-2 which some of you may have saw completely negate Loftus Cheek and imo frustrate Zaha for large swathes of the Arsenal game. If Hodgson persists with it I see us never really comfortably winning any "winnable" game and he's only likely to buy in January for the 4-4-2 system and that may not work. Grrr.

I think most Palace fans want the 4-5-1 but they have to respect the job Hodgson as done as a whole, so a weird quandary. Without desperately lucky results against Watford and Stoke our season would look a lot different. However if he keeps us up then I don't mind but it's frustrating as hell to watch us currently.

[TightEnd]

We have 12-1 ew three places Lincoln league two

a run of form has taken this into "live" territory

[hhyftrftdr]

Hi blondes.

Stoke are away at Chelsea this weekend, and go into the game with a few injury concerns at the back; Shawcross, Martins-Indi & Pieters all "doubtful", the young lad Tom Edwards picked up a knock and Zouma isn't eligible to play against his parent club. Alongside these issues our defence has been pretty shocking all season/ year, conceding the most goals out of any PL team all campaign. We've only played 2 of the "big" teams away from home this season and have been smashed in both of these, 7-2 away at Man city and 5-1 away at spurs. Chuck this in with a 4-0 loss when we played Chelsea at home and it points you in the direction of a spanking for our lads this weekend.

I'm not sure the best way to approach this, whether it be from a total Chelsea goals standpoint or handicap market. I've linked the oddchecker for the handicap results below. I really like the 4/1 offered on Chelsea -3 with Betfair. I'd recommend £20 if Fred could get on at this price. I would help but can't access Betfair from overseas.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-stoke/handicaps

Just to add to this, Glen Johnson is also is also unavailable.

great spot 

seconded well done.

Palace likely to rest a few players tomorrow with half an eye on Southampton later in week? That's the noises I've heard but you might know differently.

Think a full strength Palace could be decent value at 12s vs us....

We often do well when the pressure is off at home against a much superior team. But yep we are probably resting a few.

Even if we aren't I just look at City and think they'll demolish us, so I'm happy to leave alone.

I worry about Palace. We play the 4-4-2 which some of you may have saw completely negate Loftus Cheek and imo frustrate Zaha for large swathes of the Arsenal game. If Hodgson persists with it I see us never really comfortably winning any "winnable" game and he's only likely to buy in January for the 4-4-2 system and that may not work. Grrr.

I think most Palace fans want the 4-5-1 but they have to respect the job Hodgson as done as a whole, so a weird quandary. Without desperately lucky results against Watford and Stoke our season would look a lot different. However if he keeps us up then I don't mind but it's frustrating as hell to watch us currently.

Interesting viewpoint.

Quite a few City fans over on BlueMoon are a little 'worried' about this game, and I can see why. Don't get me wrong, I think we'll win, but whilst Newcastle defended for their lives and had nothing up top, you guys have the talent in your forward line to potentially cause us a few problems.

If it's 0-1 with 10 mins to go then I fear a Palace kitchen sink much more than a Newcastle (and many others) kitchen sink

[PokerBroker]

I don’t see much of Palace but that looks like close to the first  XI as I’d imagine it to be?

[Tal]

We have one outstanding position on the NFL divisional markets tonight: Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South £30 @ 3.7.

The division looks like this with one match left (tonight):

New Orleans W11 L4
Carolina W11 L4
Atlanta W9 L6
Tampa Bay W4 L11

New Orleans have the tie break on Carolina, because of their head to head record. This means the Panthers must better the Saints' result tonight.

Carolina play in Atlanta and are 4 point underdogs.
New Orleans play in Tampa Bay and are 6 point favourites.

Not ideal...

Worse still, Atlanta have to win to secure a playoff berth of their own, ahead of Seattle. Tampa are firing their head coach and doubtless a few others behind the scenes on Monday.

The Saints have been a surprise package this year. I would have taken 11 wins out of 15 very happily when I proposed this bet.

Donations of "One Time" shouts from the rail most welcome.

[Chompy]

Notts County could be about to lose Jorge Grant to Posh, but on the flip side Lincoln may be about to pick up the liability that is Ricky Miller. They're also about to lose Raggett, which will hurt.

[Stopsleyhatter]

We have 12-1 ew three places Lincoln league two

a run of form has taken this into "live" territory

Lincoln come to Luton tomorrow

[Tal]

Tyrod Taylor loves playing Miami.

Per Billswire:

In five games against the Dolphins, Taylor has completed roughly 65-percent of his passes for 1,232 yards, throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s rushed for 193 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries in those games.

Taylor told reporters that he enjoyed playing Miami during his media availability following Wednesday’s practice and attributed some of his success against Buffalo’s AFC East foe to familiarity.

“I don’t know if I can pin point exactly what causes that. They’re definitely a team I like to play against. They’re a talented group. Of course they’re in our division and anytime you get to play a team twice you definitely get to know those guys. It’s a big rivalry game for us. Everyone gets pumped for that game,” Taylor said.

4/1 anytime touchdown is a stand out price with Bet Every Day. As short as 9/4 elsewhere (which is ridiculous)

It'll probably be Taylor's last game for Buffalo and it isn't like he has a wealth of receivers to aim for. Miami have to block LeSean McCoy in short yardage situations, so it seems a reasonable bet for a 20% chance. The Bills simply must win today to have any hope of playing next week.

£20 if we fancy.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Tyrod Taylor loves playing Miami.

Per Billswire:

In five games against the Dolphins, Taylor has completed roughly 65-percent of his passes for 1,232 yards, throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s rushed for 193 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries in those games.

Taylor told reporters that he enjoyed playing Miami during his media availability following Wednesday’s practice and attributed some of his success against Buffalo’s AFC East foe to familiarity.

“I don’t know if I can pin point exactly what causes that. They’re definitely a team I like to play against. They’re a talented group. Of course they’re in our division and anytime you get to play a team twice you definitely get to know those guys. It’s a big rivalry game for us. Everyone gets pumped for that game,” Taylor said.

4/1 anytime touchdown is a stand out price with Bet Every Day. As short as 9/4 elsewhere (which is ridiculous)

It'll probably be Taylor's last game for Buffalo and it isn't like he has a wealth of receivers to aim for. Miami have to block LeSean McCoy in short yardage situations, so it seems a reasonable bet for a 20% chance. The Bills simply must win today to have any hope of playing next week.

£20 if we fancy.

Any chance Miami play contain and force Taylor to win from the pocket not giving him room to manoeuvre?

[Tal]

Tyrod Taylor loves playing Miami.

Per Billswire:

In five games against the Dolphins, Taylor has completed roughly 65-percent of his passes for 1,232 yards, throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s rushed for 193 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries in those games.

Taylor told reporters that he enjoyed playing Miami during his media availability following Wednesday’s practice and attributed some of his success against Buffalo’s AFC East foe to familiarity.

“I don’t know if I can pin point exactly what causes that. They’re definitely a team I like to play against. They’re a talented group. Of course they’re in our division and anytime you get to play a team twice you definitely get to know those guys. It’s a big rivalry game for us. Everyone gets pumped for that game,” Taylor said.

4/1 anytime touchdown is a stand out price with Bet Every Day. As short as 9/4 elsewhere (which is ridiculous)

It'll probably be Taylor's last game for Buffalo and it isn't like he has a wealth of receivers to aim for. Miami have to block LeSean McCoy in short yardage situations, so it seems a reasonable bet for a 20% chance. The Bills simply must win today to have any hope of playing next week.

£20 if we fancy.

Any chance Miami play contain and force Taylor to win from the pocket not giving him room to manoeuvre?

It's possible for sure but if you're playing the Bills you have to stop the run. We're not a multidimensional offense. The Dolphins are so poor through the air too. In particular, Miami are 28th against tight ends, so they'll have to cover Clay at least.

Don't really see us pulling Taylor in the 4th quarter. No point trying Peterman or Webb again, when we know it'll be Josh Allen or similar next year behind center.

[redsimon]

Notts County could be about to lose Jorge Grant to Posh, but on the flip side Lincoln may be about to pick up the liability that is Ricky Miller. They're also about to lose Raggett, which will hurt.

Grant is a Forest player on season long loan, but now our manager's gone it could all change?

[Chompy]

https://prideofnottingham.co.uk/home/news/kevin-nolan-transfer-speculation-has-affected-jorge-grants-form-r2246/

Have heard it's a done deal, but only the rumour mill.