UFC Fight Night 128 takes place in Atlantic City tomorrow night and I am having some bets. Not sure if Fred can get on at any of these places but I might start posting my picks anyway each week to see how I do!
Keita Nakamura v Tony Martin
Nakamura to win 9/4 Choral or Laddies £25/five pointshttps://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/tony-martin-v-keita-nakamura/winnerThe opening fight on the card sees an underrated veteran vs an upcoming fighter and I see this fight much closer to a flip than the odds suggest with the older Japanese fighter having an excellent chance to win this. Nakamura is 4-2 in the UFC. His two losses have both come via close points decisions. In one of them (vs Dos Santos) many had him has the winner and as a big dog against British fighter Tom Breese in London he took a round. He is a very good grappler with excellent heart and good cardio who will not quit for three rounds.
Martin is taking his fight fight moving up to fight at 170lbs here. He lost his last one via split vs a good opponent (however I didn't have him anywhere near winning that one and imo the split was flattering) taking his record to an underwhelming 4-4 in the UFC - and this is surely his last chance to try to put himself up there as a top 15 contender in the Welterweight division. Martin is the better striker, he has decent power but not massive KO power. He is athletic but if it ends up going to the ground I don't see him handling Nakamura at all. He has also had cardio issues before, though maybe with moving up he'll get over that?
Nakamura can easily take this fight via decision or submission if he can manage to get a takedown or two. His price is simply too big in my opinion and Martin is not as good as the oddsmakers seem to think.
Justin 'Big Pretty' Willis v Chase 'The Vanilla Gorilla' Sherman
Willis to win via KO or TKO 13/10 PP or BFSB - £30/6 pointshttps://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/justin-willis-v-chase-sherman/method-of-victoryWillis is fast and powerful and should simply be too much for his opponent here. It is a heavyweight fight, so the underdog always has a punchers chance, but even though Sherman has a better nickname, I like Willis to win early via KO/TKO. Willis in Round One could also be a bet here or the fight not to go the distance.
Corey Anderson v Patrick Cummins
To go the distance NO - 17/10 Choral/Lads £20/4 pointshttps://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/corey-anderson-v-patrick-cummins/will-fight-go-the-distanceTwo of the most unreliable fighters in the UFC here. Really not sure which way this one is going to go (I'd lean towards Anderson), but I see both of these guys having very suspect chins and even though neither also have massive power, I was surprised at this line and think this line is a little wrong and there is a good chance it won't go the full 15 minutes.
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I might have a couple more bets. I liked Kevin Lee in the main event, but he has just weighed in two pounds overweight. It looks like they will now fight at catchweight with Lee giving up part of his purse, so I'm going to hold fire for a moment here until I see what's going on. Undefeated Brett Johns is fighting too. Haven't pulled the trigger on betting him yet, his odds seem to be drifting, but I really like him as a fighter.
Any other UFC fans got an opinion on tomorrows card?
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