Tips for Tikay

[smashedagain]

massive massive signing for southampton this morning

 Southampton have had an £11.8m bid accepted for Gaston Ramirez.

Was wanted by spurs as well and is a cracking midfielder

Really shrewd bit of business. Good to see Southampton are competing in the transfer market alongside the other mid table hopefuls

I agree, having watched all 30 of his games for Penarol and 52 of his 58 at Bologna.


Rant alert

Rant : He may very well be the best thing since sliced bread but I do laugh when lots of fans say its a brilliant signing and all that when the vast majortiy will have seen him never/a couple of times at most

The lad is 21. Lets see in a few months before the judgements start

Rant over

it is an opinion

i have seen him in full matches probably 8 or 10 times which is enough to make an opinion. He may not do well in the premiership but that doesnt make him a bad player either, i would be quite confident he will be at a "better" side this time next year based on what i have seen.

I have no idea who he is but more thinking along the lines of him choosing them over Spurs. Sure Nigel Adkins would  have been very persuasive in the negotiations. He is very intelligent for a scouser too.

[Doobs]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

I'm not doing a Herbie here Doobs, I'm genuinely curious - why would it cause bad feeling itt?

I have yet to meet someone who has been premium charged who doesn't feel very strongly about it.   This isn't suprising, as the charge does have seriously detremental effects on the income of those affected.  If you want a civil discussion here, probably best not to discuss religion, politics and the premium charge.

[horseplayer]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

I'm not doing a Herbie here Doobs, I'm genuinely curious - why would it cause bad feeling itt?

I have yet to meet someone who has been premium charged who doesn't feel very strongly about it.   This isn't suprising, as the charge does have seriously detremental effects on the income of those affected.  If you want a civil discussion here, probably best not to discuss religion, politics and the premium charge.

Like you say if somebody is being premium charged they are hardly likely to be in favour of it.

"luckily" i have a good friend i trust implicitly and vice versa who has let me use his account for a smaller charge each month, ironically since i started to do so i have not come even near being affected.

Personally i am using betfair less anyway, betdaq are a viable alternative (if you have never used them they will give you 2% commission for a period, and in my experience they have now made my rate 3% lifetime which is very fair) and the bookies for all there faults are not that far away from betfair in a lot of cases.

There was quite a lot of comment about how poor the liquidity was on betfair yesterday, certainly the halcyon days just after flutter when a genuine 16-1 shot was laid for as much as you wanted at 30-1+ will never return.

[The Camel]

QPR's starting line up could be:

        Rob Green

Boswinga, Ferdinand, Mbia, Fabio

Dyer, Park, Taraabat, SW Phillips

        Cisse, Zamora

That seems pretty decent to me although I'm sure someone will offer up an alternative starting XI.

Midfield all wrong.

Diakite and Faurlin in th middle with park and Hoilett on the flanks.

Hard rumours about Zamora not bing happy, so wouldn't be surprised if he's gone before deadline day.

[The Camel]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

I'm not doing a Herbie here Doobs, I'm genuinely curious - why would it cause bad feeling itt?

I have yet to meet someone who has been premium charged who doesn't feel very strongly about it.   This isn't suprising, as the charge does have seriously detremental effects on the income of those affected.  If you want a civil discussion here, probably best not to discuss religion, politics and the premium charge.

I know someone who is a huge player on Betfair.

Betty flew him first class to Oz, 5 star hotel and all the trimmings for the Melbourne Cup. Min it cost them was 10k.

Then a couple of months later they slapped the Premium Charge on him.

The change of policy to their high rollers was almost overnight and represented a 180 degree shift.

[horseplayer]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

I'm not doing a Herbie here Doobs, I'm genuinely curious - why would it cause bad feeling itt?

I have yet to meet someone who has been premium charged who doesn't feel very strongly about it.   This isn't suprising, as the charge does have seriously detremental effects on the income of those affected.  If you want a civil discussion here, probably best not to discuss religion, politics and the premium charge.

I know someone who is a huge player on Betfair.

Betty flew him first class to Oz, 5 star hotel and all the trimmings for the Melbourne Cup. Min it cost them was 10k.

Then a couple of months later they slapped the Premium Charge on him.

The change of policy to their high rollers was almost overnight and represented a 180 degree shift.

yes correct, i was never anywere near that level but used to get the odd freebie ticket to english based events. They used to give a really good service in the "old days".

[Tal]

Stat research is nicked, but interesting

The Premiership next manager to leave market (sacked, manager walk out)

Been a sustained move on Nigel Adkins today down to favourite

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post

However this is generally not a market where the favourite pre-season comes in

In the last nine years, two favourites have come in (Hart. Curbishley)

Other prices of winners have been

12-1
12-1
12-1
16-1
20-1
25-1
33-1

So looking at this market, I wanted to look at the candidates and try to find those we can reasonably rule out even with a disappointing start

Adkins? Took them up, expectations are to stay up. Slow start season to be expected
Laudrup? New manager, patient board
Allardyce? Trigger happy and stupid board with a love of the headlines, a possibility but no value at 7-1
Clarke? New manager, patient board
Hughes? Lots of investment in team, board can be quick to act. A possibility
Di Matteo? Just won Champions League. Abramovich, so can't rule it out, but unlikely pre-Xmas
Pulis? Possibility with a disappointing start, no board track record of kneejerk though
McDermott? Board Happy to go up, expectations not inflated
Hughton? New manager, patient board
Martinez? Extremely patient chairman, could have sacked him when in bottom 3 each of last two seasons, didn't
Jol? Possibility with a slow start. Fayed. Dempsey and Dembele crucial this transfer window. Jol has one year left on his contract

and after that I saw no names that you could reasonably expect to be first eg AVB, Pardew, Wenger, Moyes, SAF, Rodgers

So, for discussion, my two against the field (Assume a slow disappointing start, assume trigger happy board) are QPR/Fulham

Defer thoughts on Hughes to The Camel

QPR's start

August 18: Swansea (H)

August 25: Norwich (A)

September 1: Man City (A)

September 15: Chelsea (H)

September 22: Tottenham (A)

September 29: West Ham (H)


Fulham...and Jol at 20-1 is interesting

Fulham's start

FULHAM fixtures for the 2012/13 Premier League season:

August

18 Norwich (H)

25 Man Utd (A)

September

1 West Ham (A)

15 West Brom (H)

22 Wigan (A)

29 Man City (H)




Thoughts?

I just don't see a standout bet here Rich. If I had to bet, I guess I'd be on AVB, as I believe Spurs will struggle to finish top half this season. 

There you go, bookmark that so you can throw it back at me next April or May.....

Tikay I think Karabiner has hacked into your account.

Either that or we need to have a whip-round because Tikay has clearly completely flipped.

Option 3...he's winding me up. Still biting tho.

Radio Rental

[smashedagain]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

I'm not doing a Herbie here Doobs, I'm genuinely curious - why would it cause bad feeling itt?

I have yet to meet someone who has been premium charged who doesn't feel very strongly about it.   This isn't suprising, as the charge does have seriously detremental effects on the income of those affected.  If you want a civil discussion here, probably best not to discuss religion, politics and the premium charge.

Like you say if somebody is being premium charged they are hardly likely to be in favour of it.

"luckily" i have a good friend i trust implicitly and vice versa who has let me use his account for a smaller charge each month, ironically since i started to do so i have not come even near being affected.

Personally i am using betfair less anyway, betdaq are a viable alternative (if you have never used them they will give you 2% commission for a period, and in my experience they have now made my rate 3% lifetime which is very fair) and the bookies for all there faults are not that far away from betfair in a lot of cases.

There was quite a lot of comment about how poor the liquidity was on betfair yesterday, certainly the halcyon days just after flutter when a genuine 16-1 shot was laid for as much as you wanted at 30-1+ will never return.

Do the bookies key an eye on bet fair and adjust/ set their prices accordingly?
I understand they have people who follow this thread but don't know if that is on a personal or business level

[horseplayer]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

I'm not doing a Herbie here Doobs, I'm genuinely curious - why would it cause bad feeling itt?

I have yet to meet someone who has been premium charged who doesn't feel very strongly about it.   This isn't suprising, as the charge does have seriously detremental effects on the income of those affected.  If you want a civil discussion here, probably best not to discuss religion, politics and the premium charge.

Like you say if somebody is being premium charged they are hardly likely to be in favour of it.

"luckily" i have a good friend i trust implicitly and vice versa who has let me use his account for a smaller charge each month, ironically since i started to do so i have not come even near being affected.

Personally i am using betfair less anyway, betdaq are a viable alternative (if you have never used them they will give you 2% commission for a period, and in my experience they have now made my rate 3% lifetime which is very fair) and the bookies for all there faults are not that far away from betfair in a lot of cases.

There was quite a lot of comment about how poor the liquidity was on betfair yesterday, certainly the halcyon days just after flutter when a genuine 16-1 shot was laid for as much as you wanted at 30-1+ will never return.

Do the bookies key an eye on bet fair and adjust/ set their prices accordingly?
I understand they have people who follow this thread but don't know if that is on a personal or business level

some now (maybe all?) just have software that follows betfair blind and builds in an over round based on that.

They all monitor it

[horseplayer]

anybody have philander top bat?

[MereNovice]

England 39-3 in reply to 309.
South Africa can be laid at 1.7 on Betfair.
Anyone who followed 'End's tip to back South Africa at 19/10 can feel happy.

[smashedagain]

All the S.A. Bowlers are looking good here. Kinda hope KP's replacement comes to England's rescue. It must be very difficult to come in and do you job under so much pressure knowing you are taking the place of one of the worlds greatest talents.Very similar to the task  lutalo Muhammad had to perform when he got his place ahead of Aaron Cook in the taekwondo

[hector62]

Rugby League  London Broncos v Warrington Wolves.

Warrington Wolves are the form team at present and I fancy them to win the the grand final. Tonight they play a match they really don't want. In a weeks time they play Leeds Rhinos in the cup final and are going to rest many of their key players tonight. It is all well and good rotating wingers and props but when you take out your half backs and full back you can look aimless, just look at how Wigan have collapsed since losing just their scrum half. Warrington Wolves have rested a similar number of players earlier in the season with the following results- a draw with Hull, a narrow home win against Salford Reds, and a big loss away to Salford Reds.

Since sacking their coach a few weeks ago Broncos have improved no end. Wins against Castleford Tigers and Salford Reds, and a respectable loss away to Catalan Dragons are way better than their earlier efforts. The players will be looking to earn places in next seasons team whereas Warrington Wolves will be looking to avoid injury and thus missing the cup final.

Suggest London Broncos to win £20 @ 9-2 Stan James.

And £5 on the draw @ 28-1.

[Tal]

I thought for Fred's benefit we are supposed to publish the full names of these teams?

You know, the London Ocelots v Warrington Wobblers.

Wigan Anglers, Castleford Ribticklers, Salford Narcoleptics, Catalan Pragmatists, Leeds Alesuppers, Hull Toecurlers.

[TheDazzler]

I quite fancy Man City and/or Man Utd to get over 100 points this season - is that a bet anyone has seen priced up anywhere?

That would be extraordinary so I'd want a pretty huge price.
100 points has never been done in the 38 format and the closest was Chelsea (for Mourinhos 1st title) when they got 95 points in 2004-05. That was 29 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat. Even Arsenals "invincibles" the previous season only got 90 points with their 26 wins, 12 draws. Uniteds 89 points last year was the highest ever total not to win the league.
The last 10 years winners points totals are (from most recent to least recent);
89,80,86,90,87,89,91,95,90,83.
That 95 points total is as close to perfect as you can get (imo) and that Chelsea team was an utterly dominant machine, winning by 12 points.

Add up 100 points and you see how hard it is.
32 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats? 31 wins, 7 draws, 0 defeats? Even 30 wins, 8 draws doesn't get there!
So it's a minimum of 31 wins which is just so so so difficult.