Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0810, Saturday August 18th


We placed 3 bets yesterday, two came to completion, one of which won, & 7 "in-running" bets continued, one of which went south, giving us a net profit on the day of £75. Fair to say, hector62  figured prominently yesterday.

The one we wrote off was hector's Golf Bet on David Toms in the Wyndham, which was £5 EW. Toms shot 3 over yesterday, to go with his 4 over on Day One, & missed the cut.   

Golf is not the extent of hector's tippage skills though. He put up a really weird Rugby League bet yesterday, London Broncos, who were HUGE dogs to Warrington, @ 9/2, but who absolutely crushed the Warrington HotShots by 60-18!

I know that via the rear-view mirror it is easy to make a tip fit the facts, but here was hector's bet basis.....

Warrington Wolves are the form team at present and I fancy them to win the the grand final. Tonight they play a match they really don't want. In a weeks time they play Leeds Rhinos in the cup final and are going to rest many of their key players tonight. It is all well and good rotating wingers and props but when you take out your half backs and full back you can look aimless, just look at how Wigan have collapsed since losing just their scrum half. Warrington Wolves have rested a similar number of players earlier in the season with the following results- a draw with Hull, a narrow home win against Salford Reds, and a big loss away to Salford Reds.

Since sacking their coach a few weeks ago Broncos have improved no end. Wins against Castleford Tigers and Salford Reds, and a respectable loss away to Catalan Dragons are way better than their earlier efforts. The players will be looking to earn places in next seasons team whereas Warrington Wolves will be looking to avoid injury and thus missing the cup final.

Suggest London Broncos to win £20 @ 9-2 Stan James.

And £5 on the draw @ 28-1.

Amazing stuff hector, well done, & thank you. There is more hector-age to come too, in "Whats Coming Up".

We have £45 invested on the "Rubbish" Mobot bet, which, contrary to what seemed logical, started last night with the Cardiff-Huddersfield game. Cardiff scored very late in the game, but there were no Mobots that I could see, & so the bet remains open.

We had two Fun Tenners down to rfqqqabczyxcba on both Man U & Man City to win their first 6 Premiership games, @ 25/1 & 20/1 respectively.

Finally, the saga of the Tighty's 3rd Test Max continued to tease & titillate. Early yesterday afternoon, with England in dire trouble, the bet looked home & hosed, but England staged a remarkable recovery & the tease continues. What a bet this is!

The day belonged to hector yesterday, fair play to him, & he receives the much-coveted Fred Sir-Ship Award, sponsored by Camel (he LOVES Awards), which I imagine would look like this...... (this may not be hector)

Click to see full-size image.

[kpnuts]

Daily Report as @ 0810, Saturday August 18th
The one we wrote off was hector's Golf Bet on David Toms in the Wyndham, which was £5 EW. Toms shot 3 over yesterday, to go with his 4 over on Day One, & missed the cut.   

Good day for 3G tho, fairly sure Fred has him e/w. Stormed up leaderboard @ Wyndham with a 65. Just 4 off lead.

[tikay]

Whats coming up?

A packed day of sport today.

We had better continue the hector theme first, as his other dart in the Golf was Nick Colsaerts.

3G shot a wonderful 65 (FIVE under) yesterday, to go with his 3 under on Thursday, & now lies handily, tied for 9th, right behind the leaders. Unforch for us, one Jimmy Walker shot an awesome 62 (EIGHT under!), to go with his Day One 66, so he's the man to catch. We might just have a real bit of weekend Golf fun here.

The Leaderboard?

http://www.pgatour.com/r/leaderboard/

Current prices?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/wyndham-championship/winner/all

As you can see, 3G is currently 16/1 & 20/1 generally (though BWin go 28/1).

We are on @ 49/1. Great stuff again by hector, who keeps finding us these gems. Round Three will be televised this evening on SS

The Test Match continues, of course, current prices are here....

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-tests/england-v-south-africa-[3rd-test]/winner

Thanks to Tighty, who I never doubted even for a moment (T & C's apply) we have a £150 MAX on South Africa @ 19/10, so we have good value, fo sho. The first session today might just be the one that swings it, in several senses.

More Rugby League tonight, too, with Widnes Vikings playing Hull FC on SS2 this evening.


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/club-rugby/super-league/widnes-v-hull/winner

A duo of fearsome Rugby Union games will be on SS3 today. At 11.05 this morning, Australia & New Zealand clash, definitely worth watching....

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-championship/australia-v-new-zealand/winner

And at 3.30 today, Argentina & South Africa lock horns, but you'd need to be brave to oppose South Africa in this one......

 
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-championship/south-africa-v-argentina/winner

There is even a Live Currie Cup game sandwiched between those two, but I think we'll swerve that.

At 12.45, there is Championship Football, Leeds v Wolves.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leeds-v-wolverhampton/winner

For those with ESPN, Newcastle - Spurs is televised @ 5.30pm.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-tottenham/winner

The Premiership kicks off @ 3pm, but it seems a little early to be betting that except for fun stakes.

The Irish Greyhound Derby continues this evening, & SawPit Sensation runs in the first Heat......

http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2012-08-18&raceId=1180431

Finally, Miss World will be decided today, in Inner Mongolia, China, of all places. Who'd have thunk? Curiously, Miss China PR is now clear 2nd fave @ 5/1. Good luck her.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/awards/miss-world/pageant-winner

TV Pick of the Crop? Has to be Australia v New Zealand in the Rugby Union. Scary stuff.

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0810, Saturday August 18th
The one we wrote off was hector's Golf Bet on David Toms in the Wyndham, which was £5 EW. Toms shot 3 over yesterday, to go with his 4 over on Day One, & missed the cut.   

Good day for 3G tho, fairly sure Fred has him e/w. Stormed up leaderboard @ Wyndham with a 65. Just 4 off lead.

Absolutely, & yes, we are on 3G Each Way.

Hope you are on!

[tikay]

First game of the season for all clubs in just 13 hours! Exciting, so posting a couple of tips (in my own view of course!) that I think will be OK for tomorrow.

QPR to beat Swansea

EVS or even better with a look round.

QPR have some already great players and have signed some decent players in the summer, including Park from Manchester United and Boswinga very recently, great additons to mention. Swansea? New manager and they have lost their best players in Joe Allen and that other bloke they had on loan, who was their POTY I believe?

QPR squad improved, Swansea squad in terrible decline.

Furthermore, QPR are at home an Swansea are away. Swansea are the type of football team who like to pass the ball into the back of the net, they play some decent football and very much hate having the ball in the air, a poorer version of Arsenal. With them wanting a big pitch, QPR's Loftus Road is not ideal, one of the smallest pitches and grounds in the Premier League for sure, not ideal.

To add some more stats, QPR thrashed Swansea 3-0 at home last season too.

I don't want to go on, but....

I'd also tip Forest at home to Bristol City tomorrow. Loads of new signings, and Bristol City haven't seen much improvement to their squad. I looked at the possible Forest line up and their squad looks of Play-Off quality. Bristol City signed Jody Morris, so shows how desperate they are. Cox and Blackstock up front for Forest, will surely see some goals?

Also, mentioned this earlier in Fred, but Preston (at home) to beat Colchester tomorrow. Preston have signed 17 players and outplayed a poor Huddersfield side in the week. Not much to say on Colchester's side, they have signed Clinton Morrisson who was rubbish for us (Wednesday) and rubbish for county too, along with Freddy Sears, who has been loaned to sides in the lower leagues for a long time and constantly failed to live up to hype.

All good bets in my view. QPR my tip of day, think EVS is good price, would have backed them as short as 4/6.

Edit: People seem to fancy QPR?

Thanks Aaron.

I think we need a bit more conviction if we are to be punting the Premiership on the opening day, personally, I'd rather await a better spot, but if any of the lads follow you in, we'll deffo take a look.

[Tal]

Just a stat, rather than a tip

Spurs last six opening day results W1 D1 L4. Quite slow starters

Squad in a bit of flux, new manager..going to a settled Newcastle who can be backed at 7-4 which seems big to me, or am I missing something?

I.....agree.

Spurs have this infuriating policy of value hunting in transfer windows, which always means we have outstanding issues (players we know are leaving so won't play and gaps we have therefore yet to fill) come the first couple of games of each season.

We lost our first two games last season to the two Manchester clubs but we got mullered by Citeh (which I had the pleasure of paying to watch FML) before we signed Parker and Adebayor and went on a good run of results.

Modric our midfield maestro is somewhere near Madrid, waiting for a replacement to be sorted before pen can be put to paper. We have Sigurdssen but he is not a like-for-like.

Parker misses the start of the season and Bale will be half fit after injuring his back playing for Wales in midweek.

Last season, we played very well at St James's Park (that's what the Sports Direct Arena used to be called, kids) but a late equaliser saw us fall to just a point.

I wouldn't back us to do better this time around.

Pre season has been typically mixed for us. The only indication has been we have played a 4-5-1 formation. I suspect that this is more out of necessity than choice, as we are a striker short with Adebayor still holding out for a better wage package.

The XI we put out at half five tonight should be better on paper than Newcastle's but a draw would seem to me to offer the best value.

[Simon Galloway]

Prodigality, 2.20 Ripon tomorrow, 7-1 generally, all in, yup

Chompy's been using that invisible ink again....

Last few tips seem to have been overlooked by Fred and they have all been significant pricing ricks.  OK, they usually don't go on and win(!), but for 7/1 to be generally available and then be 9/2 BP and as short as 7/2 first thing in the morning on a racing Saturday of all days should be the epitome of the value-seeking this thread should be about.  Instead, we discuss The Royal British Legion -v- Co-op Ladies checkout X1 

[tikay]

Prodigality, 2.20 Ripon tomorrow, 7-1 generally, all in, yup

Chompy's been using that invisible ink again....

Last few tips seem to have been overlooked by Fred and they have all been significant pricing ricks.  OK, they usually don't go on and win(!), but for 7/1 to be generally available and then be 9/2 BP and as short as 7/2 first thing in the morning on a racing Saturday of all days should be the epitome of the value-seeking this thread should be about.  Instead, we discuss The Royal British Legion -v- Co-op Ladies checkout X1 

Unfortunately Simon I can't be on the thread 24/7,  I was at DTD from 4.30pm until midnight, & so never got home until 3am, so yes, I missed the value I'm afraid. I had the ippy with me, but it's quite awkward to be placing bets on the ippy whilst pokering.

Hopefully everyone else got on though, which is a good deal of what it's about, I hope.

[Simon Galloway]

 The thread is all about getting value whilst simultaneously has been a must-read for a lot of people in no short part due to the community spirit that exists, even nurtured, on this thread.  No one expects anyone to do anything, least of all subordinate their life in favour of trawling through this thread to make sure nothing is missed.

So don't take it personally, it isn't a dig at you specifically, but at this thread collectively ~ and therefore obviously myself included as a frequent reader, occasional investor and infrequent contributor.

If there are guys (for example Singhee) that are awarded "no-quibble insta-bet" status then despite his penchant for reality TV dross, Chompy should be in the same bracket.  Any time you are busy elsewhere, the collective thread should be bumping any tips from the "insta-bet crew" (or even having Mere lump on insta-bets for you)

It was my observation that he seems to have put up a handful of great tips recently that haven't even been discussed by anyone.  And knowing what a delicate soul he is, I wouldn't want him to take that personally.  This horse today will obv get beaten in terms of furlongs rather than lengths, but 7/1 --> 7/2 is the name of the game, and greening out is ok.

[Karabiner]

^^^

It's still 5/1 on betty.

[hector62]

Growing up as a boy in the late 1960's excitement was hard to come by. However, at primary school it was just possible to find it. In those days it was "PC" to award exceptional schoolwork a stick on star. These stars came in a variety of colours, from reds and greens to the very rarely awarded gold star. I can still vividly remember getting a gold star for a poem I wrote about a tramp. Walking home from school ( no school run with the car in those days) clutching my book so that I could show it to my mother, and then when my house came into view I could contain myself no longer and had to run the last 80 yards home.

Well that is just how I feel now having been awarded a photo of Queenie and Brucie. If my mother were alive i would be emailing her the link so that she could see for herself.

By the way the banana cake is delicious and here is the link for the recipe, but only use half the amount of cardamom.

http://www.rivercottage.net/recipes/spiced-banana-loaf-cake-with-chocolate-chunks/

[TightEnd]

The thread is all about getting value whilst simultaneously has been a must-read for a lot of people in no short part due to the community spirit that exists, even nurtured, on this thread.  No one expects anyone to do anything, least of all subordinate their life in favour of trawling through this thread to make sure nothing is missed.

So don't take it personally, it isn't a dig at you specifically, but at this thread collectively ~ and therefore obviously myself included as a frequent reader, occasional investor and infrequent contributor.

If there are guys (for example Singhee) that are awarded "no-quibble insta-bet" status then despite his penchant for reality TV dross, Chompy should be in the same bracket.  Any time you are busy elsewhere, the collective thread should be bumping any tips from the "insta-bet crew" (or even having Mere lump on insta-bets for you)

It was my observation that he seems to have put up a handful of great tips recently that haven't even been discussed by anyone.  And knowing what a delicate soul he is, I wouldn't want him to take that personally.  This horse today will obv get beaten in terms of furlongs rather than lengths, but 7/1 --> 7/2 is the name of the game, and greening out is ok.

Speaking personally, and I check the thread a lot as its fun, I didn't even see the Chompy post..it soon gets lost in the pages that go up per day.

Such posts need bumping by the person posting if they are getting lost in the chaff.

[tikay]

^^^

It's still 5/1 on betty.

Thanks Ralph.

As I have explained on numerous occasions, I really am hopeless at Betfair Trading, so whilst I appreciate Chompy's frequent "pricing rick" gems, the truth is, when I know full well that he really puts them up for the purposes of "trading" them out, it's quite awkward for me, as I still don't fully grasp the nuances of Betfair Trading, & as you know, make a mistake on a poker forum & it's open season for dissing!

I do a bit of it on my own account, but I generally get Mere to do it for me, as I'm prone to "misclicks". I'll get there eventually, though. Maybe.

I discussed this very topic with bookiebasher at DTD yesterday, & he expressed the view that as I am pretty hot at maths, I ought to embrace trading like a thing of beauty. And I don't quite know why I can't, but I find it a real struggle to get my head round.

I used to go have a punt in High Street Betting Shops, & when I returned in February after a 12 year punting absence, the whole betting scene had changed beyond comprehension, the learning curve has been steep, but I've loved every minute - if only I could get my head round "exchanges" better!

Anyway, I hope everyone has a successful day today - lots going off.

[MereNovice]

Pinnacle have Venus Williams at 69/1 to win the US Open. She is as short as 20/1 elsewhere. I'd suggest that this is worth £20 with a view to trading later in the tournament depending how things work out.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens-us-open/winner

If she beats Li Na today the price will shorten dramatically so it needs to be placed today.

Contrary arguments.
Venus is very unlikely to be seeded and hence might get a really tough draw. Alternatively she might beat a "soft" top seed early and inherit an easier path to the later stages.
There is always a chance that Venus' illness will flare up and cause her to lose unexpectedly but she is coping really well at the moment.

[tikay]

Pinnacle have Venus Williams at 69/1 to win the US Open. She is as short as 20/1 elsewhere. I'd suggest that this is worth £20 with a view to trading later in the tournament depending how things work out.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens-us-open/winner

If she beats Li Na today the price will shorten dramatically so it needs to be placed today.

Contrary arguments.
Venus is very unlikely to be seeded and hence might get a really tough draw. Alternatively she might beat a "soft" top seed early and inherit an easier path to the later stages.
There is always a chance that Venus' illness will flare up and cause her to lose unexpectedly but she is coping really well at the moment.

I have sent you a PM, Vince, hopefully, given my previous comments, you can assist!

I believe Fred should deffo do this.