Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Where is the thinking England won't score many goals from!??

The spreads have England tournament goals at 7.5/8.0

Can't believe that is a long way off. Kane looks a fair price to me tbh but there is nothing hidden in the England selection really.

With the sides with a lower goal expectancy there is a good argument that backing the said player on the exchanges first last and any in what will likely be three games maximum is just as good.

A bit flippant but....watching England play in major tournaments?

Players are tired from a long, competitive season with no break and consistently underperform against expectation. This is a comparatively weak squad - though I am pleased with the selections on what we have - and we have games against relative minnows, but who will be competitive.
   
I'd rather be an unders backer at 7.5.

Don't have strong views on this personally, but it's the obvious counterargument.

[arbboy]

Where is the thinking England won't score many goals from!??

The spreads have England tournament goals at 7.5/8.0

Can't believe that is a long way off. Kane looks a fair price to me tbh but there is nothing hidden in the England selection really.

With the sides with a lower goal expectancy there is a good argument that backing the said player on the exchanges first last and any in what will likely be three games maximum is just as good.

A bit flippant but....watching England play in major tournaments?

Players are tired from a long, competitive season with no break and consistently underperform against expectation. This is a comparatively weak squad - though I am pleased with the selections on what we have - and we have games against relative minnows, but who will be competitive.
   
I'd rather be an unders backer at 7.5.

Don't have strong views on this personally, but it's the obvious counterargument.

I just couldn't imagine buying englands goals at 8 knowing they have to score 9 goals at a world cup for me to even make a tiny profit!

[horseplayer]

I like this England side but that's just a opinion

If forced I'd rather be unders as well but hard to think one of the forward players doesn't nick two at least in the groups

[4KSuited]

Let's be honest, both 2014 (Brazil), and 2010 (SA) were pretty disastrous tournaments for England. Scored only 2-3 goals at each Group stage against opposition such as Algeria & Slovenia (1 goal in 2010) and then Costa Rica (0-0 in 2014) albeit in a tough group with Italy and Uruguay (1 goal against each).

Our last creditable performance was in 2006 (Germany), where we scraped past Paraguay 1-0, smashed up Trinidad & Tobago 2-0, and score-draw 2-2 against the Swedes to get through to the knock-out phase. 5 goals: I suspect most pundits would have expected that number as a minimum in the first 2 games. We then get a 1-0 against Ecuador and go out on pens vs Portugal 0-0 aet.

So, on to 2016 where we meet Panama who will play a similar 11 behind the ball strategy as they did through qualification - unless the opposition scores early. Tunisia are no mugs, and like Algeria in 2010, they're likely to set up defensively and try to score on the break. Belgium? I think Southgate would be happy with 0-0 or 1-1. Round of 32 looks doable vs Colombia/Poland/Senegal but then it's the end of the line against Germany or Brazil in the QFs.

I'd be on the unders, but I don't really want to be watching the games and feeling sick if England manage to stuff 4 past someone.

[Doobs]

England's past performances in World Cups are a near irrelevance.   Different team, different manager, different system.   It is a bit like going back 12 years and assuming it is relevant when opposing Man City or Burnley.   

Tunisia are interesting.   

[hhyftrftdr]

England's past performances in World Cups are a near irrelevance.   Different team, different manager, different system.   It is a bit like going back 12 years and assuming it is relevant when opposing Man City or Burnley.   

Tunisia are interesting.   

Highest ranked African team at the comp I believe. They could prove to be sticky opposition, though if England have aspirations of going the distance then they really should be looking at a minimum of 6 points from the group stage.

[Tal]

England's past performances in World Cups are a near irrelevance.   Different team, different manager, different system.   It is a bit like going back 12 years and assuming it is relevant when opposing Man City or Burnley.   

Tunisia are interesting.   

Same problems (no winter break, most competitive league) and one of the least creative squads we've produced (on paper at least). 

[Doobs]

England's past performances in World Cups are a near irrelevance.   Different team, different manager, different system.   It is a bit like going back 12 years and assuming it is relevant when opposing Man City or Burnley.   

Tunisia are interesting.   

Highest ranked African team at the comp I believe. They could prove to be sticky opposition, though if England have aspirations of going the distance then they really should be looking at a minimum of 6 points from the group stage.

Yep and their World ranking isn't far from ours.  Tunisia are 500/1 to reach the final with PP/BFSB   Seems an obvious bet for those who are flapping about England's performances 12 years ago.  Seemed a decent bet to me and I am fairly dismissive of England's past major results.

[Karabiner]

Do we feel there is some value in Sterling at 7/1 to be top scorer for England? If yesterdays formation/tactics are anything to go by, he's gonna be playing a very advanced role.

Need to gauge opinions cos I'm gonna come across as a little biased

I'm biased the other way when it comes to him: his first touch is bad (for balance, I have the same gripe with Dele) and his finishing is atrocious. Such good movement and speed deserves better skill in front of goal.

That said, two goals might win it this year.

Likely to start, assuming the system we saw yesterday is what we start with. Price feels about right to me.

His composure in front of goal is clearly a big issue for him, he'd have had 25+ goals in the league last season were he more lethal in 1 on 1 situations.

He does get himself in excellent positions, and his speed and awareness is a big contributor for this.

As you say, a couple might be enough. Doesn't take penalties or free kicks but should start every game and is rarely injured. Felt 7/1 was a smidge too big (was thinking 11/2 feels about right) but I have City specs on.

I always assumed you wore the full kit on a daily basis.

[tikay]

Do we feel there is some value in Sterling at 7/1 to be top scorer for England? If yesterdays formation/tactics are anything to go by, he's gonna be playing a very advanced role.

Need to gauge opinions cos I'm gonna come across as a little biased

I'm biased the other way when it comes to him: his first touch is bad (for balance, I have the same gripe with Dele) and his finishing is atrocious. Such good movement and speed deserves better skill in front of goal.

That said, two goals might win it this year.

Likely to start, assuming the system we saw yesterday is what we start with. Price feels about right to me.

His composure in front of goal is clearly a big issue for him, he'd have had 25+ goals in the league last season were he more lethal in 1 on 1 situations.

He does get himself in excellent positions, and his speed and awareness is a big contributor for this.

As you say, a couple might be enough. Doesn't take penalties or free kicks but should start every game and is rarely injured. Felt 7/1 was a smidge too big (was thinking 11/2 feels about right) but I have City specs on.

I always assumed you wore the full kit on a daily basis.

Oh, he does. No Pep Cuckoo Clock or duvet cover though.

[4KSuited]

England's past performances in World Cups are a near irrelevance.   Different team, different manager, different system.   It is a bit like going back 12 years and assuming it is relevant when opposing Man City or Burnley.   

Tunisia are interesting.   

Yep and their World ranking isn't far from ours.  Tunisia are 500/1 to reach the final with PP/BFSB   Seems an obvious bet for those who are flapping about England's performances 12 years ago.  Seemed a decent bet to me and I am fairly dismissive of England's past major results.
[/quote]

In an effort to contribute to the discussion about whether 7.5 goals was a fair expectation of England goals in the WC, I had a look at the last 3 WCs largely for context. I'm aware that it's different this time. It's always different, right? What isn't different is the weight of expectation from the supporters, public at large and the Media. We've had confirmation of what we've known instinctively for a long time in recent interviews with former players: that the players are petrified of making mistakes and that they consequently underperform and struggle to score. In each of the previous 3 WCs there were high expectations of England, and even with better squads, these teams under-delivered. My point here is that this (the mental pressure) hasn't changed; it's just not that obvious yet.

I thought I'd also made it clear that this year's opponents were likely to be parking the bus (Panama), under-rated (Tunisia) or we're just underdogs to (Belgium) and therefore in all cases difficult to see us free-scoring against any of them. Just as it has been before.

Not quite sure why you want to leap on only half of my post and ridicule it (if I've offended you somewhere along the way, I opologise), but I'm seeing why so many people have given up making contributions on what I thought were "discussion boards". You win. I'm giving up.

[Doobs]

England's past performances in World Cups are a near irrelevance.   Different team, different manager, different system.   It is a bit like going back 12 years and assuming it is relevant when opposing Man City or Burnley.   

Tunisia are interesting.   

Yep and their World ranking isn't far from ours.  Tunisia are 500/1 to reach the final with PP/BFSB   Seems an obvious bet for those who are flapping about England's performances 12 years ago.  Seemed a decent bet to me and I am fairly dismissive of England's past major results.

In an effort to contribute to the discussion about whether 7.5 goals was a fair expectation of England goals in the WC, I had a look at the last 3 WCs largely for context. I'm aware that it's different this time. It's always different, right? What isn't different is the weight of expectation from the supporters, public at large and the Media. We've had confirmation of what we've known instinctively for a long time in recent interviews with former players: that the players are petrified of making mistakes and that they consequently underperform and struggle to score. In each of the previous 3 WCs there were high expectations of England, and even with better squads, these teams under-delivered. My point here is that this (the mental pressure) hasn't changed; it's just not that obvious yet.

I thought I'd also made it clear that this year's opponents were likely to be parking the bus (Panama), under-rated (Tunisia) or we're just underdogs to (Belgium) and therefore in all cases difficult to see us free-scoring against any of them. Just as it has been before.

Not quite sure why you want to leap on only half of my post and ridicule it (if I've offended you somewhere along the way, I opologise), but I'm seeing why so many people have given up making contributions on what I thought were "discussion boards". You win. I'm giving up.
[/quote]

I didn't reply to a particular post, I was just countering a point that has been made several times already this year on this board including twice today.   There is no rudicule in my post.   I then added that if people believe this past performance is more relevant, Tunisia to final would be a cracking bet.   But it is a serious point, if you went back 12 years to discuss the lilelihood of a result n a league game, people would jump on you here too.     

This is a board for discussing bets, that is all I did.  If you take it personally, you may miss something important.  We all carry on learning this way.

FWIW.  I don't even think England have undelivered that much over the years.  Quarter finals is often bang in line with betting.  So losing to Germany in the round of 16 isn't much of a failure, and losing in the quarters on penalties can't be.  Last time was obviously a bit rubbish, but maybe they just ran bad? 

[Ironside]

cut and pasted from laddies

Each Way 1/5 1-2-3
Robert White 6/4
Lost Voice Guy 7/4
Dvj 5/1
Micky P Kerr 8/1
Giang Brothers 16/1  BF 26/1000
Gruffydd Wyn 16/1  BF 21/26
The D-Day Darlings 16/1 BF 34/60
Jack and Tim 25/1 BF 70/150
Donchez Dacres 33/1 BF 75/500
Calum Courtney 66/1 1.01/1000 (last price mach 75)



wildcard to be added

Haven't seen any of it, but put some betfair prices up on the ones outside the top 4.  Think that rules out Jack and Tim D-day darlings and Donchez Dacres.

i really fancy the d-day darlings to ramp up the britishness and make the top 3 can get them 25-1 to win but everywhere offering ew have them at 16-1 which is a bummer as they are no longer value

just back them on the exchange at 40?   If e/w is bad, do win only.

going to see what i can get on exchange for top 3 last price matched on there was 5.0 i think anything 5.0 or above and i will get value. I dont think they are winners but they pulled out d-day veterans in the semi and another stunt like that will get them votes and the comedians will be taking votes from each other

looks like the value was on donchez (was traded above 300 on the exchange) gifted the last to perform
tied 3rd favourite at the moment at 14-1 with the giang brothers
mickey kerr (160.0) and DVJ (40.0) having fallen right out the market

B-positive choir getting wild card killed off any chance of D-Day darlings making top 3

[Tal]

100% Doobs won't have been having a pop, 4KSuited. He's too good to leave it to ambiguity.

It was me who brought up the previous world cups anyway.

Previous tournament records are irrelevant in many ways, but are useful where the same things happen again and again. Hence why I made the point about long seasons etc.

[horseplayer]

Sane left out of Germany squad.

Great player obviously but made very little/no impact for Germany and had plenty of chances, looks like a move to shake up the complacency that might be in the squad. They were dreadful versus Austria especially in the second half not that I think that will have any bearing on their world cup performance.

Plenty of Twitter judges who have never seen him play for Germany up in arms!  

OptaFranz
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0 - In 12 games for Germany, Leroy #Sane provided just one assist (zero goals). Dropped.  #WC2018

Interesting Pat Nevin who I always respect criticised his off the ball work last season maybe that also has a factor if Low has seen the same