Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Hi Peter,

It would be good if you could expand on what you mean. If you mean you were wrong about Hamilton, then we have a very strong position now.

Yep, wrong about Hamilton. Ferrari clearly have the quicker car here - despite Lewis' pole position yesterday. I'm still not entirely sure why this happened, the race itself should give me some insight into why the Ferrari is outperforming the Mercedes - but I really am at a loss right now. It seems as if Ferrari's drag has reduced significantly over the summer shut down, but that feels hard to believe, to that extent anyway.

So we must be backing Vettel big at the current prices? Looks to be confirmed that there’ll be no rain.

If I didn't already have money on Lewis, I would be betting on Sebastian right now. 11/10 is about right for him, and that's the price I saw when I last checked a few hours ago.

You can never really "confirm" no rain at this circuit. It's a microclimate, so forecast models tend to change on a minute-by-minute basis. Current projection is for the race to be dry at the moment though.

Thanks for the insight mate. From a pure betting perspective, it’s a mistake to not bet Vettel because you’re already on Hamilton, there is definitely 6/4 available.

I guess my thinking is that although Sebastian has the quicker car, this is a track that tends to throw up unusual results, which acts as somewhat of a leveller between the pair of them. I'd rather take a big profit should Lewis win rather than a very small profit should I bet on Sebastian, and he wins. Interested to get your follow up thoughts?

[kukushkin88]

Hi Peter,

It would be good if you could expand on what you mean. If you mean you were wrong about Hamilton, then we have a very strong position now.

Yep, wrong about Hamilton. Ferrari clearly have the quicker car here - despite Lewis' pole position yesterday. I'm still not entirely sure why this happened, the race itself should give me some insight into why the Ferrari is outperforming the Mercedes - but I really am at a loss right now. It seems as if Ferrari's drag has reduced significantly over the summer shut down, but that feels hard to believe, to that extent anyway.

So we must be backing Vettel big at the current prices? Looks to be confirmed that there’ll be no rain.

If I didn't already have money on Lewis, I would be betting on Sebastian right now. 11/10 is about right for him, and that's the price I saw when I last checked a few hours ago.

You can never really "confirm" no rain at this circuit. It's a microclimate, so forecast models tend to change on a minute-by-minute basis. Current projection is for the race to be dry at the moment though.

Thanks for the insight mate. From a pure betting perspective, it’s a mistake to not bet Vettel because you’re already on Hamilton, there is definitely 6/4 available.

I guess my thinking is that although Sebastian has the quicker car, this is a track that tends to throw up unusual results, which acts as somewhat of a leveller between the pair of them. I'd rather take a big profit should Lewis win rather than a very small profit should I bet on Sebastian, and he wins. Interested to get your follow up thoughts?

I guess we have to take a view on the likelihood that neither of them win. Feels like we’re insulated against that to some extent with the FI’s and a Haas behind. If we think we were wrong about Hamilton and a freak set of circumstances + his qualifying lap talent means he’s 4/7 from 6/4, we’ll rarely see a better spot to take the other side.

[Peter-27]

Hi Peter,

It would be good if you could expand on what you mean. If you mean you were wrong about Hamilton, then we have a very strong position now.

Yep, wrong about Hamilton. Ferrari clearly have the quicker car here - despite Lewis' pole position yesterday. I'm still not entirely sure why this happened, the race itself should give me some insight into why the Ferrari is outperforming the Mercedes - but I really am at a loss right now. It seems as if Ferrari's drag has reduced significantly over the summer shut down, but that feels hard to believe, to that extent anyway.

So we must be backing Vettel big at the current prices? Looks to be confirmed that there’ll be no rain.

If I didn't already have money on Lewis, I would be betting on Sebastian right now. 11/10 is about right for him, and that's the price I saw when I last checked a few hours ago.

You can never really "confirm" no rain at this circuit. It's a microclimate, so forecast models tend to change on a minute-by-minute basis. Current projection is for the race to be dry at the moment though.

Thanks for the insight mate. From a pure betting perspective, it’s a mistake to not bet Vettel because you’re already on Hamilton, there is definitely 6/4 available.

I guess my thinking is that although Sebastian has the quicker car, this is a track that tends to throw up unusual results, which acts as somewhat of a leveller between the pair of them. I'd rather take a big profit should Lewis win rather than a very small profit should I bet on Sebastian, and he wins. Interested to get your follow up thoughts?

I guess we have to take a view on the likelihood that neither of them win. Feels like we’re insulated against that to some extent with the FI’s and a Haas behind. If we think we were wrong about Hamilton and a freak set of circumstances + his qualifying lap talent means he’s 4/7 from 6/4, we’ll rarely see a better spot to take the other side.

Alright, that's me convinced, thanks. But, what stake would you recommend? I have £20 on Lewis at 6/4.

[kukushkin88]

OK mate, I have backed Vettel for double what I originally staked on Hamilton following the initial recommend. Good luck and enjoy the race!

[tikay]

OK mate, I have backed Vettel for double what I originally staked on Hamilton following the initial recommend. Good luck and enjoy the race!

Well done kuku. The Ferrari dominance was breathtaking.

[tikay]

We should be getting Fred an NFL portfolio over the next couple of weeks.

Tighty has done his chef-d'oevre for Betting Emporium and we should be having some of those at least, if the prices are still there.

May I also recommend one with Redzone Sports? The most receiving yards market should be much flatter than it's being priced. Antonio Brown is a freak in being stupendous at 5'10, but he's by no means so clearly ahead of Julio, Odell Beckham or DeAndre Hopkins that he should be 2/1, as he is with some books.

Atlanta have improved their offensive line with Fusco coming in from San Francisco as right guard and doing a good job in the preseason. They look to be giving Matt Ryan much more time in the pocket and Calvin Ridley has impressed. Jones and Devontae Freeman have been rested all preseason, so we've been able to see Ridley doing the all-around-the-field plays that you'd expect Jones to be fitting into, when he's not going downfield.

Sarkisian's offense since he started has been excellent in all but the big moments. Keeping Julio fit is key to Atlanta doing well and they're certainly doing things that'll play to his strengths.

As for the player himself, he's an astonishing human being: 6'3", 220lb and 4.39 seconds over 40 yards. That's all in the price of course.

Remember this from the 2017 Super Bowl?



Jones top 3 if his fitness is managed is very likely.

Redzone are 6/1 to finish top, with 3 places 1/4. The 6/4 top three is little short of delicious.

Recommend £30ew

Morning Tal,

Thanks for this.

Think Tighty is very busy elsewhere & at home, otherwise he'd have commented on this, so I'm temporarily in charge.

If I understand the bet correctly, the price at Redzone has crashed to 7/2, which presumably is way too low based on the original 6/1.

Have looked on Oddschecker, which suggests he is even lower - the best price they show is 5/2.


https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/regular-season/most-receiving-yards


Boat well & truly sailed, but what a great spot.

[kukushkin88]

OK mate, I have backed Vettel for double what I originally staked on Hamilton following the initial recommend. Good luck and enjoy the race!

Well done kuku. The Ferrari dominance was breathtaking.

The credit goes to Peter, I hope he cashed in as well. I see 15/8 Lewis, 1/1 Vettel in Monza. I know close to nothing about F1, I’ll stick to acting as Peter’s interpreter.

[Tal]

We should be getting Fred an NFL portfolio over the next couple of weeks.

Tighty has done his chef-d'oevre for Betting Emporium and we should be having some of those at least, if the prices are still there.

May I also recommend one with Redzone Sports? The most receiving yards market should be much flatter than it's being priced. Antonio Brown is a freak in being stupendous at 5'10, but he's by no means so clearly ahead of Julio, Odell Beckham or DeAndre Hopkins that he should be 2/1, as he is with some books.

Atlanta have improved their offensive line with Fusco coming in from San Francisco as right guard and doing a good job in the preseason. They look to be giving Matt Ryan much more time in the pocket and Calvin Ridley has impressed. Jones and Devontae Freeman have been rested all preseason, so we've been able to see Ridley doing the all-around-the-field plays that you'd expect Jones to be fitting into, when he's not going downfield.

Sarkisian's offense since he started has been excellent in all but the big moments. Keeping Julio fit is key to Atlanta doing well and they're certainly doing things that'll play to his strengths.

As for the player himself, he's an astonishing human being: 6'3", 220lb and 4.39 seconds over 40 yards. That's all in the price of course.

Remember this from the 2017 Super Bowl?



Jones top 3 if his fitness is managed is very likely.

Redzone are 6/1 to finish top, with 3 places 1/4. The 6/4 top three is little short of delicious.

Recommend £30ew

Morning Tal,

Thanks for this.

Think Tighty is very busy elsewhere & at home, otherwise he'd have commented on this, so I'm temporarily in charge.

If I understand the bet correctly, the price at Redzone has crashed to 7/2, which presumably is way too low based on the original 6/1.

Have looked on Oddschecker, which suggests he is even lower - the best price they show is 5/2.


https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/regular-season/most-receiving-yards


Boat well & truly sailed, but what a great spot.

Odell Beckham Jr with Billy Mountains at 10/1 is not wildly wrong, but they're offering FOUR places 1/4 odds.

Can't see the logic of laying 5/2 top four.

Worth £25ew.

It's a terrific each way market

[tikay]

We should be getting Fred an NFL portfolio over the next couple of weeks.

Tighty has done his chef-d'oevre for Betting Emporium and we should be having some of those at least, if the prices are still there.

May I also recommend one with Redzone Sports? The most receiving yards market should be much flatter than it's being priced. Antonio Brown is a freak in being stupendous at 5'10, but he's by no means so clearly ahead of Julio, Odell Beckham or DeAndre Hopkins that he should be 2/1, as he is with some books.

Atlanta have improved their offensive line with Fusco coming in from San Francisco as right guard and doing a good job in the preseason. They look to be giving Matt Ryan much more time in the pocket and Calvin Ridley has impressed. Jones and Devontae Freeman have been rested all preseason, so we've been able to see Ridley doing the all-around-the-field plays that you'd expect Jones to be fitting into, when he's not going downfield.

Sarkisian's offense since he started has been excellent in all but the big moments. Keeping Julio fit is key to Atlanta doing well and they're certainly doing things that'll play to his strengths.

As for the player himself, he's an astonishing human being: 6'3", 220lb and 4.39 seconds over 40 yards. That's all in the price of course.

Remember this from the 2017 Super Bowl?



Jones top 3 if his fitness is managed is very likely.

Redzone are 6/1 to finish top, with 3 places 1/4. The 6/4 top three is little short of delicious.

Recommend £30ew

Morning Tal,

Thanks for this.

Think Tighty is very busy elsewhere & at home, otherwise he'd have commented on this, so I'm temporarily in charge.

If I understand the bet correctly, the price at Redzone has crashed to 7/2, which presumably is way too low based on the original 6/1.

Have looked on Oddschecker, which suggests he is even lower - the best price they show is 5/2.


https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/regular-season/most-receiving-yards


Boat well & truly sailed, but what a great spot.

Odell Beckham Jr with Billy Mountains at 10/1 is not wildly wrong, but they're offering FOUR places 1/4 odds.

Can't see the logic of laying 5/2 top four.

Worth £25ew.

It's a terrific each way market

Excellent, we have exactly that, thank you.


Ref: O/0457483/0002346/F
Odell Beckham Jr @10/1 EW @ 1/4 1-4
07 Sep 2018 - 2018 Most Regular Season Receiving Yards - Most Regular Season Receiving Yards
Stake£25.00
To return £362.50

BET PLACED

[Marky147]

Julio is 9/2  4 places & 5/1 3.

Great writeup, Tal.

[tikay]

Julio is 9/2  4 places & 5/1 3.

Great writeup, Tal.

Bugger, complete misread by me, entirely as expected, sorry. Please write slowly as I can't read very fast.

Even so, unless I've totally lost it (4/6 shot) 9/2 is not as appealing as 6/1.

[horseplayer]

redzone are still 6/1 jones btw chaps

[tikay]

redzone are still 6/1 jones btw chaps

Jeez, wtf is going off here?

You are right, John, thank you.

We are now ON, as advised.

Julio Jones
Season Player Markets - NFL 2018/19 - Most Regular Season Receiving Yards
Winner
Stake: £ 30 @ 6/1
Return: £ 210
Julio Jones
Season Player Markets - NFL 2018/19 - Most Regular Season Receiving Yards
Winner
E/W 1/4 1-2-3
Stake: £ 30 @ 6/4
Return: £ 75

[tikay]

Think I need to go lie down for an hour, I made a right pig's ear of that, but I got there in the end thanks to you guys. I think.

[Chompy]

Kieffer Moore at 10-1. The guy's an absolute monster at this level and Barnsley are pretty much nailed on to finish in the top two or three. With Tom Bradshaw joining Millwall last week, he's now the main man up front and manager Daniel Stendel is all about being aggressive. BetVictor's book looks the most accurate in this case (3 Cummings, 5 Moore, 6 Godden, 16 Bar) but I'd have Kieffer a bit shorter still. The two Posh strikers will likely share the goals between them the rest of the season.