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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 12458803 times)
Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #134205 on: September 13, 2018, 11:23:47 AM »

Sherrif  ?

Just stumbled across this by accident, and was surprised to see myself featured in TfT.

It is indeed me, tail-walking the local junior parkrun.  The guy in orange alongside me is Callum Wilkinson, a World U20 champion 20km Race Walker, who was there as part of Team Parkrun, where Team GB athletes turn up to local parkruns as volunteers for the day.

I've been walk/running a few of the main 5k parkruns recently, and have really got the bug.  Dropped about 2 stone so far, and am building up to being able to run a full course (hopefully by the end of October).

After that it's the small matter of the Bradford 10k that I signed up for in March next year.  Would like to think I'd be able to run the whole course by then, but that seems a long way off for now.
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"...And If You Flash Him A Smile He'll Take Your Teeth As Deposit..."
"Sheriff Fatman" - Carter the Unstoppable Sex Machine

2006 Blonde Caption Comp Ultimate Champion (to be replaced by actual poker achievements when I have any)

GUKPT Online Main Event Winner 2008 (yay, a poker achievement!)
Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #134206 on: September 13, 2018, 11:25:20 AM »

Is he playing the role of what is known as "the tall wanker" or did I not have my specs on when I read that?

I applied, but they said I was too short.
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"...And If You Flash Him A Smile He'll Take Your Teeth As Deposit..."
"Sheriff Fatman" - Carter the Unstoppable Sex Machine

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Peter-27
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« Reply #134207 on: September 13, 2018, 10:09:40 PM »

Charles Leclerc to win the world drivers' championship in 2019

That's 10/1 on Hills. Max bet for the thread.

Why?

Because there are only two other occasions where I've thought a young driver has this much potential; and one of those occasions was Sebastian Vettel.

I don't expect Charles to beat Sebastian next year, experience should win out. However, there's no doubt in my mind that Charles will be in contention. 10/1 is way, way too high. I would have priced it up at 3/1.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #134208 on: September 13, 2018, 10:16:16 PM »

Charles Leclerc to win the world drivers' championship in 2019

That's 10/1 on Hills. Max bet for the thread.

Why?

Because there are only two other occasions where I've thought a young driver has this much potential; and one of those occasions was Sebastian Vettel.

I don't expect Charles to beat Sebastian next year, experience should win out. However, there's no doubt in my mind that Charles will be in contention. 10/1 is way, way too high. I would have priced it up at 3/1.

If LeClerc is 3-1 and Vettel is favourite presumably you think Mercedes are nowhere next year?
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« Reply #134209 on: September 14, 2018, 12:05:33 PM »

Charles Leclerc to win the world drivers' championship in 2019

That's 10/1 on Hills. Max bet for the thread.

Why?

Because there are only two other occasions where I've thought a young driver has this much potential; and one of those occasions was Sebastian Vettel.

I don't expect Charles to beat Sebastian next year, experience should win out. However, there's no doubt in my mind that Charles will be in contention. 10/1 is way, way too high. I would have priced it up at 3/1.

If LeClerc is 3-1 and Vettel is favourite presumably you think Mercedes are nowhere next year?

I think 3/1 is way too short, but 10/1 seems still too big.

Ferrari looks like the best car right now, but something else could improve past it, and it could easily swing back to Mercedes next year, so think a Ferrari is about 45% to win the driver's championship next year.  I think this is on the cautious side if anything. 

Vettel should rightly be favourite, but Leclerc looks very good.  I'd think Vettel is maybe a bit over twice as likely to win the Ferrari battle.  So Leclerc is 30% or so vs Vettel.  Obviously this is contentious, but Vettel is fading a little this year, I get the feeling Vettel only looks so good right now, as Raikkonen is fading quicker.  Leclerc looks as promising as any recent driver and doesn't look as wild as Vestappen. 

That gives overall odds of 13/2 (.45 x .3).  I can't get on with Hills, and have no idea if it is still available.  Whilst it isn't quite max bet stuff, as there is a big chunk of speculation here, I think a chunky bet is right. 

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« Reply #134210 on: September 14, 2018, 12:38:21 PM »

Charles Leclerc to win the world drivers' championship in 2019

That's 10/1 on Hills. Max bet for the thread.

Why?

Because there are only two other occasions where I've thought a young driver has this much potential; and one of those occasions was Sebastian Vettel.

I don't expect Charles to beat Sebastian next year, experience should win out. However, there's no doubt in my mind that Charles will be in contention. 10/1 is way, way too high. I would have priced it up at 3/1.

If LeClerc is 3-1 and Vettel is favourite presumably you think Mercedes are nowhere next year?

I think 3/1 is way too short, but 10/1 seems still too big.

Ferrari looks like the best car right now, but something else could improve past it, and it could easily swing back to Mercedes next year, so think a Ferrari is about 45% to win the driver's championship next year.  I think this is on the cautious side if anything. 

Vettel should rightly be favourite, but Leclerc looks very good.  I'd think Vettel is maybe a bit over twice as likely to win the Ferrari battle.  So Leclerc is 30% or so vs Vettel.  Obviously this is contentious, but Vettel is fading a little this year, I get the feeling Vettel only looks so good right now, as Raikkonen is fading quicker.  Leclerc looks as promising as any recent driver and doesn't look as wild as Vestappen. 

That gives overall odds of 13/2 (.45 x .3).  I can't get on with Hills, and have no idea if it is still available.  Whilst it isn't quite max bet stuff, as there is a big chunk of speculation here, I think a chunky bet is right. 



HAving your money locked up for 15 months is pretty rough though!
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TightEnd
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« Reply #134211 on: September 14, 2018, 12:47:06 PM »

i can't see a market on oddschecker or william hill either
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« Reply #134212 on: September 15, 2018, 11:49:15 AM »

Charles Leclerc to win the world drivers' championship in 2019

That's 10/1 on Hills. Max bet for the thread.

Why?

Because there are only two other occasions where I've thought a young driver has this much potential; and one of those occasions was Sebastian Vettel.

I don't expect Charles to beat Sebastian next year, experience should win out. However, there's no doubt in my mind that Charles will be in contention. 10/1 is way, way too high. I would have priced it up at 3/1.

If LeClerc is 3-1 and Vettel is favourite presumably you think Mercedes are nowhere next year?

I wouldn't say nowhere, but I do expect Ferrari to be the dominant car based on the trend over the last four seasons.

Charles Leclerc to win the world drivers' championship in 2019

That's 10/1 on Hills. Max bet for the thread.

Why?

Because there are only two other occasions where I've thought a young driver has this much potential; and one of those occasions was Sebastian Vettel.

I don't expect Charles to beat Sebastian next year, experience should win out. However, there's no doubt in my mind that Charles will be in contention. 10/1 is way, way too high. I would have priced it up at 3/1.

If LeClerc is 3-1 and Vettel is favourite presumably you think Mercedes are nowhere next year?

I think 3/1 is way too short, but 10/1 seems still too big.

Ferrari looks like the best car right now, but something else could improve past it, and it could easily swing back to Mercedes next year, so think a Ferrari is about 45% to win the driver's championship next year.  I think this is on the cautious side if anything.  

Vettel should rightly be favourite, but Leclerc looks very good.  I'd think Vettel is maybe a bit over twice as likely to win the Ferrari battle.  So Leclerc is 30% or so vs Vettel.  Obviously this is contentious, but Vettel is fading a little this year, I get the feeling Vettel only looks so good right now, as Raikkonen is fading quicker.  Leclerc looks as promising as any recent driver and doesn't look as wild as Vestappen.  

That gives overall odds of 13/2 (.45 x .3).  I can't get on with Hills, and have no idea if it is still available.  Whilst it isn't quite max bet stuff, as there is a big chunk of speculation here, I think a chunky bet is right.  



I would put Ferrari at 60% for the WCC next season, and Vettel at 60% over Leclerc for the WDC.

At 10/1 (which no longer seems to be available), I would still suggest a max. bet.
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« Reply #134213 on: September 15, 2018, 12:01:14 PM »

Are we getting on Dee Ex Bee for the Leger.  One of Chompy's old tips for the Derby.   Keeps finding one too good, but it is a funny race, and the classiest animals often get found out.   Suggest 50 e/w at 18/1 with 365 if anyone can for thread.   Is right on bf win price and the place value is there with the two shorties and a couple of big outsiders.
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« Reply #134214 on: September 15, 2018, 12:07:09 PM »

Are we getting on Dee Ex Bee for the Leger.  One of Chompy's old tips for the Derby.   Keeps finding one too good, but it is a funny race, and the classiest animals often get found out.   Suggest 50 e/w at 18/1 with 365 if anyone can for thread.   Is right on bf win price and the place value is there with the two shorties and a couple of big outsiders.

Good shout David.

If anyone can get all or part on for us, I will send the cash across right away.
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« Reply #134215 on: September 15, 2018, 01:37:03 PM »

I'd have done it, but can't get to an everyday now.
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« Reply #134216 on: September 15, 2018, 01:46:16 PM »

I'd have done it, but can't get to an everyday now.

Price has gone anyway.  Best now 14/1 and that is going too.   Not sure I'd take 12/1.
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« Reply #134217 on: September 15, 2018, 02:07:26 PM »

I'd have done it, but can't get to an everyday now.

Price has gone anyway.  Best now 14/1 and that is going too.   Not sure I'd take 12/1.

I backed it ages ago, but had written it off.
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« Reply #134218 on: September 15, 2018, 05:30:27 PM »

Had to work sadly so didn't make the game today.

Bernardo Silva was spectacular by all accounts. Another goal for Sterling too. Long way to go but plenty of mileage in both bets.
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« Reply #134219 on: September 15, 2018, 07:18:53 PM »

Keenan Allen my best bet for tomorrow. Only 6/5 but playing the worst team in the league.

30 on at 6/5 on Redzone please.

NB for me is Chris Thompson at 13/10 over there as well. The Colts aren't good against pass catching backs, well they're not good at all really in fairness and the Redskins looked good last week, Smith targeted tight ends and RBs a lot as well.

20 at 13/10 (can get 7/4 at unibet, 11/8 at willhill don't think they're usable though)
« Last Edit: September 15, 2018, 07:20:34 PM by Cavey007 » Logged

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