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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331863 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #135765 on: April 13, 2019, 06:47:47 PM »

Couple a game from Spurs & Arsenal until season end, and we all get weighed in.

Could do with a couple Ronnie hatricks over in Serie A, just to sweeten it right up.
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Doobs
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« Reply #135766 on: April 13, 2019, 06:53:50 PM »

If anyone is up right now; Charles Leclerc race winner at 11/4 with Sporting Index. He should be 7/4 (same as his team mate) or maybe 2/1, but not higher.

https://sports.sportingbet.com/en/sports#sportId=6

Qualifying in 31 minutes time.

Drifted out to 8/1 after a disappointing qualifying. This season is proving largely impossible to predict ..

True that.   Going through big swings in my view of Bottas and Leclerc season long bets.  Should be some opportunities though.  I did a flyer on Sainz Jr each way, which is probably dead, but even McLaren are showing glimpses of good pace.   Only certainty is Willians will be very poor right now.  Even they seem to be improving a bit.

Sainz EW for what? Pole? Title? Either way that's incredibly optimistic.

Williams are very poor at the moment. Unless we see a bonkers race, Williams won't score points this season.

championship.  It was clearly an educated punt.  It was very early and 250/1.   No real reason they couldn't be as competitive as red bull in some scenarios with the new rules and ten times the price.   Price is everything.  I don't really rate Sainz Jr FWIW.  

Sure people thought Brawn couldn't do anything much before that season started.  
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 06:55:25 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Chompy
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« Reply #135767 on: April 13, 2019, 11:50:13 PM »

Couple a game from Spurs & Arsenal until season end, and we all get weighed in.

Could do with a couple Ronnie hatricks over in Serie A, just to sweeten it right up.

Goal bets? Some of those starting to look very good. The sweat is on. Will take a clean sheet for City tomorrow please.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Marky147
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« Reply #135768 on: April 14, 2019, 01:24:09 AM »

Couple a game from Spurs & Arsenal until season end, and we all get weighed in.

Could do with a couple Ronnie hatricks over in Serie A, just to sweeten it right up.

Goal bets? Some of those starting to look very good. The sweat is on. Will take a clean sheet for City tomorrow please.

Yeah, the Ronaldo & Mbappe >30 league goals.

Ars, Liv, City, Tott > 75 league goals.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #135769 on: April 14, 2019, 05:37:04 AM »

If anyone is up right now; Charles Leclerc race winner at 11/4 with Sporting Index. He should be 7/4 (same as his team mate) or maybe 2/1, but not higher.

https://sports.sportingbet.com/en/sports#sportId=6

Qualifying in 31 minutes time.

Drifted out to 8/1 after a disappointing qualifying. This season is proving largely impossible to predict ..

True that.   Going through big swings in my view of Bottas and Leclerc season long bets.  Should be some opportunities though.  I did a flyer on Sainz Jr each way, which is probably dead, but even McLaren are showing glimpses of good pace.   Only certainty is Willians will be very poor right now.  Even they seem to be improving a bit.

Sainz EW for what? Pole? Title? Either way that's incredibly optimistic.

Williams are very poor at the moment. Unless we see a bonkers race, Williams won't score points this season.

championship.  It was clearly an educated punt.  It was very early and 250/1.   No real reason they couldn't be as competitive as red bull in some scenarios with the new rules and ten times the price.   Price is everything.  I don't really rate Sainz Jr FWIW.  

Sure people thought Brawn couldn't do anything much before that season started.  

Hmmm, I'm all for an educated punt, but that bit is what I fundamentally don't understand.

We knew Brawn would be quick following pre-season testing.

Nevertheless, sometimes it's much easier to find justification for a bet, than finding justification for not betting. I've learned that the hard way  Cheesy
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Peter-27
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« Reply #135770 on: April 14, 2019, 06:23:59 AM »

If anyone's up, I have two bets to suggest:

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg
@ 33/20 with Unibet. Although Red Bull locked out 5th & 6th in qualifying, Pierre Gasly is significantly slower than Max Verstappen. Actually, Gasly and the two Renault's were within 0.032 seconds of each other, so that battle for 6th should be close. To add more justification, Daniel Ricciardo isn't as quick as Nico Hulkenberg in the Renault at the moment. He was able to qualify ahead by 0.004 seconds, but that was a one off lap and we're not seeing it from him consistently (or at all until that moment). Plus, Nico only had one qualifying run whereas Daniel had two. This price should be more like 13/10.

Fastest Lap - Max Verstappen @ 9/1 with various. If this is a "normal" race, he'll be solidly in 5th place, and have a huge gap behind him. Can easily see him pitting late for fresh tyres to get that fastest lap point. I would have had this priced at around 5/1 myself.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #135771 on: April 14, 2019, 10:25:14 AM »

- Leclerc was slow today and didn't win.
- Hulkenberg retired with a mechanical issue.
- Verstappen didn't get the FL point. Theory was right on this as his team mate did. However, Ferrari's bizarre strategy allowed Verstappen to get 4th and he wasn't going to pit then.
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #135772 on: April 14, 2019, 12:43:27 PM »

Couple a game from Spurs & Arsenal until season end, and we all get weighed in.

Could do with a couple Ronnie hatricks over in Serie A, just to sweeten it right up.

Goal bets? Some of those starting to look very good. The sweat is on. Will take a clean sheet for City tomorrow please.

Yeah, the Ronaldo & Mbappe >30 league goals.

Ars, Liv, City, Tott > 75 league goals.

Amen to this.

Also need a further 10 Liverpool goals in 5 games for the magic 85 (as long as them or City don't suddenly concede loads!) for that sweet spot Chompy put up a while back.

Gonna be a close on quite a few fronts.
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« Reply #135773 on: April 14, 2019, 08:48:24 PM »

We backed Nathan Redmond at 14/1 last year for top Southampton league goalscorer which just about got over the line with 7 goals.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/southampton/top-league-goalscorer

Bet 365 have put him up at 16/1 this year.

Last year, Redmond placed 10th in the whole league for total shots (83). He placed 5th in the whole league for shots in the box (57). For comparison Dele Alli had 58 and Hazard had 56. He is just 23 so still lots of room to improve his finishing.

The front two in the market look very opposable. Gabbiadini has only scored more than 10 league goals once in his career. Charlie Austin does not suit the high pressing style that Pellegrino is expected to bring, has injury issues and may not start given we are expected to favour a 4-5-1.

For comparison WH seem to be the only other to have the market and have him at 8/1.

Recommend another £20 please if someone can get us on.

Remember that weird moment Pep shouted at Redmond on the pitch last year. He recognises true quality in a player.

Dig your fivers out from behind the sofa as Redmond is available at 20/1 this year for top Saints scorer!

This isn't a serious recommendation, I just can't help backing him every year.


Redmond and Ings level on 8 goals a piece. 5 games to go!
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #135774 on: April 15, 2019, 07:11:47 PM »

Bit of an update regarding a couple of ongoing football Fred bets.

Shrewsbury won again at the weekend, and now look to be fairly safe barring a collapse. It was looking really tight down the bottom just a few games ago but they've managed to pull away from the drop zone unfortunately.

Disappointing one this; Kane's season looks to be over. I think he was nailed on for at least a place, and the logic behind the bet worked out exactly as I was hoping for. However, injuries are part and parcel and sadly his latest one looks a season ender. Every cloud however...

Kane's imminent fall from the top 4 opens up another space that Sterling can possibly take. Could do without Raheem missing open goals ffs but he currently shares 4th with Kane and PEA, with Hazard close behind too. Still very tight and a number of players could feasibly top the charts or come 6th, it's that close.
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tikay
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« Reply #135775 on: April 15, 2019, 07:31:47 PM »


Good stuff Fatty, thanks.

Think we have various bets on Luton & Barnsley, too, maybe Liverpool too, but I'm buggered if I can remember what they are or who they are with.   
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #135776 on: April 15, 2019, 07:34:06 PM »


Good stuff Fatty, thanks.

Think we have various bets on Luton & Barnsley, too, maybe Liverpool too, but I'm buggered if I can remember what they are or who they are with.   

Yeah there are various other ones on the go but fat chance (no pun) I can remember the deets.
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tikay
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« Reply #135777 on: April 16, 2019, 02:05:04 PM »

The NFL draft is coming up in a couple of weeks. It's jolly good fun and offers all sorts of betting markets.

There is a tidal wave of information about which team is going to pick which player, which position they prioritise over another, who will trade down, who wants to move up, whose fitness is a concern and for every inside scoop, there's a denial. This isn't a "where there's smoke there's fire" situation; sometimes it is just smoke.

One of the interesting markets is where Dwayne Haskins will end up. Haskins is not the most highly rated QB in the draft this year, but he is an intelligent, tall, sharp-eyed prospect, who could develop into a decent franchise guy. In the last couple of days, there's been talk that teams are cool on him and that he is expected to be drafted much later than the press has been reporting to us for the last few months. Why would teams have let this misapprehension continue for so long? It's perfectly possible that it's actually this latest rumour that is the lie and he's actually sought after.

The candidate teams:

1. New York Giants - pick 6 in the draft and have an ageing QB in Eli Manning who showed significant signs of decline last season. GM loves him, though, and that's the only person realistically stopping this from being a slam dunk. He just happens too be the one calling the shots.

2. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill has gone. Ryan Fitzpatrick has come in and he is basically a fun placeholder. The team has spoken openly - or as openly as it can - about looking at the 2020 draft for a QB. There will be a couple of guys who look better than this year's crop available. Finish with a poor record this year and get one of those seems to be the plan. They could, of course, be bluffing.

3. Oakland Raiders - The Raiders have been rumoured to be looking beyond current QB Derek Carr. The trouble is he can't be binned off this year very easily because of his contract. It's questionable at best whether either Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins is an upgrade on Carr. Frankly, I can't have either above Carr. The Raiders have 3 first round picks and pick 35, so they have lots of ammunition if they want to try to get number 1 overall. If they love Haskins, they could take him at 4, but I can't really see that happening, when they can fill other needs more easily.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A sort of combination of New York and Oakland: an ageing QB whose mediocrity might be too high a bar to better this year. They could gamble for their new head coach, but that's not really how they've run their franchise in Cincy. They could wait for him to fall down to them, though, at 11. This team could easily finish 4th in the AFC North and has a lot of holes (apologies, Bengals fans in this thread), so taking a "need" and making do might well make more sense.

5. Washington Redskins - The Redskins have three QBs on their books: Alex Smith is recovering from a hideous leg break and might never play again; Colt McCoy is a back-up and nothing more; Case Keenum is no one's idea of a franchise QB but was the best available when they brought him in a few months ago.

Haskins seems unlikely to be a week one starter, so time behind an experienced QB makes sense. That's basically all of the above teams. The complicating factor is what's happening at number one. Kyler Murray seems very likely to be Arizona's choice, but the Cardinals traded up last year to 10 to take Josh Rosen, so they already have a rookie contract QB. This is clearly ridiculous, as he's not done much wrong in a team devoid of offense or coaching. Nevertheless, this is the NFL and stupid things happen.

Rosen will have to go somewhere, and the above teams, along with the Patriots, are all possible destinations for him.

At the prices, I think Washington are the ones to watch for Haskins. He'd be a good fit in their offence - originally designed for Alex Smith's safety-first approach - and would allow them to build around him for a few years, while they recover from being a poor outfit.

 Click to see full-size image.


Recommendation: Team to draft Dwayne Haskins: Washington Redskins

I've put £30 @ 6/1 with Betstars on for Fred, if he wants it.


 

Sorry Simon, I said I'd send this across on Saturday, but I clean forgot.

Just sent it across for immediate payment, should be with you right away.


I owe Marky a few bob too, but he can whistle.
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Marky147
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« Reply #135778 on: April 16, 2019, 02:27:22 PM »

Haha, never been much good at whistling Sad
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redsimon
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« Reply #135779 on: April 16, 2019, 05:22:59 PM »

We backed Nathan Redmond at 14/1 last year for top Southampton league goalscorer which just about got over the line with 7 goals.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/southampton/top-league-goalscorer

Bet 365 have put him up at 16/1 this year.

Last year, Redmond placed 10th in the whole league for total shots (83). He placed 5th in the whole league for shots in the box (57). For comparison Dele Alli had 58 and Hazard had 56. He is just 23 so still lots of room to improve his finishing.

The front two in the market look very opposable. Gabbiadini has only scored more than 10 league goals once in his career. Charlie Austin does not suit the high pressing style that Pellegrino is expected to bring, has injury issues and may not start given we are expected to favour a 4-5-1.

For comparison WH seem to be the only other to have the market and have him at 8/1.

Recommend another £20 please if someone can get us on.

Remember that weird moment Pep shouted at Redmond on the pitch last year. He recognises true quality in a player.

Dig your fivers out from behind the sofa as Redmond is available at 20/1 this year for top Saints scorer!

This isn't a serious recommendation, I just can't help backing him every year.


Redmond and Ings level on 8 goals a piece. 5 games to go!

Are they level on Premier League goals?
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