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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 9353190 times)
Karabiner
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« Reply #135840 on: April 22, 2019, 07:04:32 PM »

15/1 Burnley - yum-yum
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« Reply #135841 on: April 22, 2019, 07:15:37 PM »

Wan Bissaka goes to Man United according to my sauce.
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« Reply #135842 on: April 22, 2019, 08:01:07 PM »

Wan Bissaka goes to Man United according to my sauce.

Yeah this is what I've been hearing, and apparently this is forcing City to target him a year earlier than they anticipated/wanted.

The irony is we don't really need him; Walker is still the right side of 30 and Danilo has never let us down. Whereas united could really do with him. I guess Pep likes what he see's and could probably work wonders with him, and talent like this doesn't become available all that often.

I can't imagine City would want to get involved in a bidding war so we may well end up conceding him to united without too much fuss. Would all hinge on Danilo moving too, and united don't have that chain to make their move.

A lot of the talk is of Zaha moving on, so I guess the ideal solution for us is that Palace are reluctant to sell AWB this summer along with Zaha, and we can go in for him next summer much more prepared and with more of a 'need' to get him (when Walker will be nudging 30 and Danilo probs looking to move on after 3 years in and out the team)
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Karabiner
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« Reply #135843 on: April 22, 2019, 08:24:54 PM »

One time for Bob Lord...
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« Reply #135844 on: April 22, 2019, 10:31:50 PM »

Orient slip up, so naturally Salford lose at home. Marv.

Who went 25-1 Mbapples to score 30+? Crazy price.

Skye were kind enough
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« Reply #135845 on: April 23, 2019, 11:25:44 AM »

Admitting it for Hennessey could have put his career in jeoperdy so I can see why he goes for the desperate cover up. Currently he trots away pretty unaffected.

The FA, who conveniently didn't want to kick up a storm, are questionable.

People on the Palace top 10 with me, we have a very slim chance of doing it. The squad got further decimated with both starting cb's out, and Townsend not fit enough to start. Great result yesterday but teams won't be so open at the back in our remaining games. Also other results haven't really gone our way with Everton beating United yesterday. Need to win all three to have a shot, but even then, could struggle.

Zaha should be gone in the summer and has to, to show what he is really about as he is way too stifled here. I think he could really flourish in a possession dominant team. He would need to start regularly to get the best out of him so he needs to team select properly.

I mourned when my favourite Palace player in Bolasie left us and if the other winger wonder goes a lot of our identity as a side goes with it. We may never see that sort of electricity again here for a while. We were spoilt as fans to have them both here at the same time and are now with Zaha here alone. Gutting this could be his last three games. I hope he puts on a show.

Quite a few rumours doing the rounds at City that we'll be selling Danilo to Inter this summer and will be looking quite seriously at AWB.
Not sure how eager Palace would be to let both Zaha and AWB leave in the same window though. They can command top whack for both.

Incred that on the 3 man FA panel, only 1 of them saw it as a Nazi salute. Absolutely incred.

3 man FA panels don't have a great track record to be fair...
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Tal
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« Reply #135846 on: April 23, 2019, 03:50:05 PM »

https://www.i-pools.co.uk/everything-you-need-know-ahead-2019-nfl-draft

My draft preview
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« Reply #135847 on: April 23, 2019, 11:44:01 PM »


Lunchtime reading sorted for tomorrow.

Cheers, Tal Smiley
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« Reply #135848 on: April 24, 2019, 05:44:19 PM »

Reports suggesting van dijk has the pfa award.
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« Reply #135849 on: April 24, 2019, 06:30:47 PM »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2019/04/24/virgil-van-dijk-reportedly-beats-raheem-sterling-player-year/

Market pulled, seems correct. Wiiiiiiiiii
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« Reply #135850 on: April 26, 2019, 07:41:15 AM »

How likely lock goes to broncos now?
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« Reply #135851 on: April 26, 2019, 10:25:30 AM »

It is a bit late as practice has just started but I do fancy Carlos Sainz at a very big price for this week's Azerbajan Grand Prix.

The last couple of Grand Priix there have had a high attrition rate, and McLaren showed a bit of pace in Bahrain and Australia; and Carlos Sainz has run here well here before (as did the Renaults).

Obviously needs a lot of carnage in amongst the big boys, but he is 1500/1 and bookies are offering a fifth first 3 again.  You get 300/1 the podium, which is where the value is.  He clearly isn't finishing here every week, but 1 time in 300 is probably too big.  You could probably apply this logic to a few others outside the first 4 in the betting, as place terms are going to be very good on races that can have a lot of retirements like this. 

You'll likely have to wait until the end of practice to get a price again, and 1500/1 may not be available, though it was available in a few spots this morning.   If the car runs like a bag of spanners in first practice then you need to reconsider!
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« Reply #135852 on: April 26, 2019, 10:47:27 AM »

It is a bit late as practice has just started but I do fancy Carlos Sainz at a very big price for this week's Azerbajan Grand Prix.

The last couple of Grand Priix there have had a high attrition rate, and McLaren showed a bit of pace in Bahrain and Australia; and Carlos Sainz has run here well here before (as did the Renaults).

Obviously needs a lot of carnage in amongst the big boys, but he is 1500/1 and bookies are offering a fifth first 3 again.  You get 300/1 the podium, which is where the value is.  He clearly isn't finishing here every week, but 1 time in 300 is probably too big.  You could probably apply this logic to a few others outside the first 4 in the betting, as place terms are going to be very good on races that can have a lot of retirements like this. 

You'll likely have to wait until the end of practice to get a price again, and 1500/1 may not be available, though it was available in a few spots this morning.   If the car runs like a bag of spanners in first practice then you need to reconsider!

The price is back up as practice is abandoned.   When I said attritional I didn't expect that.

You could extend the logic to Hulkenberg and Ricciardo who are both 750/1, or 150/1 first 3.   
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Tal
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« Reply #135853 on: April 26, 2019, 12:53:44 PM »

The NFL draft is coming up in a couple of weeks. It's jolly good fun and offers all sorts of betting markets.

There is a tidal wave of information about which team is going to pick which player, which position they prioritise over another, who will trade down, who wants to move up, whose fitness is a concern and for every inside scoop, there's a denial. This isn't a "where there's smoke there's fire" situation; sometimes it is just smoke.

One of the interesting markets is where Dwayne Haskins will end up. Haskins is not the most highly rated QB in the draft this year, but he is an intelligent, tall, sharp-eyed prospect, who could develop into a decent franchise guy. In the last couple of days, there's been talk that teams are cool on him and that he is expected to be drafted much later than the press has been reporting to us for the last few months. Why would teams have let this misapprehension continue for so long? It's perfectly possible that it's actually this latest rumour that is the lie and he's actually sought after.

The candidate teams:

1. New York Giants - pick 6 in the draft and have an ageing QB in Eli Manning who showed significant signs of decline last season. GM loves him, though, and that's the only person realistically stopping this from being a slam dunk. He just happens too be the one calling the shots.

2. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill has gone. Ryan Fitzpatrick has come in and he is basically a fun placeholder. The team has spoken openly - or as openly as it can - about looking at the 2020 draft for a QB. There will be a couple of guys who look better than this year's crop available. Finish with a poor record this year and get one of those seems to be the plan. They could, of course, be bluffing.

3. Oakland Raiders - The Raiders have been rumoured to be looking beyond current QB Derek Carr. The trouble is he can't be binned off this year very easily because of his contract. It's questionable at best whether either Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins is an upgrade on Carr. Frankly, I can't have either above Carr. The Raiders have 3 first round picks and pick 35, so they have lots of ammunition if they want to try to get number 1 overall. If they love Haskins, they could take him at 4, but I can't really see that happening, when they can fill other needs more easily.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A sort of combination of New York and Oakland: an ageing QB whose mediocrity might be too high a bar to better this year. They could gamble for their new head coach, but that's not really how they've run their franchise in Cincy. They could wait for him to fall down to them, though, at 11. This team could easily finish 4th in the AFC North and has a lot of holes (apologies, Bengals fans in this thread), so taking a "need" and making do might well make more sense.

5. Washington Redskins - The Redskins have three QBs on their books: Alex Smith is recovering from a hideous leg break and might never play again; Colt McCoy is a back-up and nothing more; Case Keenum is no one's idea of a franchise QB but was the best available when they brought him in a few months ago.

Haskins seems unlikely to be a week one starter, so time behind an experienced QB makes sense. That's basically all of the above teams. The complicating factor is what's happening at number one. Kyler Murray seems very likely to be Arizona's choice, but the Cardinals traded up last year to 10 to take Josh Rosen, so they already have a rookie contract QB. This is clearly ridiculous, as he's not done much wrong in a team devoid of offense or coaching. Nevertheless, this is the NFL and stupid things happen.

Rosen will have to go somewhere, and the above teams, along with the Patriots, are all possible destinations for him.

At the prices, I think Washington are the ones to watch for Haskins. He'd be a good fit in their offence - originally designed for Alex Smith's safety-first approach - and would allow them to build around him for a few years, while they recover from being a poor outfit.

 Click to see full-size image.


Recommendation: Team to draft Dwayne Haskins: Washington Redskins

I've put £30 @ 6/1 with Betstars on for Fred, if he wants it.


 

 Click to see full-size image.


A pleasure to owe you money, tikay.
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« Reply #135854 on: April 26, 2019, 01:06:27 PM »


What? Yay, lovely job Tal, thank you very much.

I hope I sent the money across to you? Honestly can't remember without checking.

Today was already a good day, you just made it a whole lot better. 

TY TY TY, & well done.

I was gonna funk for West Ham tomorrow, but I'll be a COYS now.
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