After six intriguing days of pre-season Formula One testing in Barcelona, this is how I see the 2020 F1 season playing out.
Analysis1) Mercedes. Car seems dominant, gap to Red Bull should be in the region of 0.5 s per lap on average, possibly more. I expect Valtteri Bottas to have upped his game this season, but Lewis Hamilton will ultimately be too strong. Points gap between them should be less than in 2019 (87 points), but Lewis will still comfortably take the title.
2) Red Bull. The Austrian team were 0.091s faster than Ferrari in testing on their outright fastest laps, but it's Red Bull's race pace that really impressed me. I feel like that car is really managing the tyres well and believe they will comfortably be the second fastest team this season with occasional pressure from Ferrari and - at the start of the season - Racing Point. Max Verstappen will beat Alexander Albon in the championship, but the pace gap will reduce as the season progresses. Max will almost certainly have more DNF's too which could make it closer than people expect at the end of the season.
3) Ferrari. They have improved their pace compared to 2019, but not by much. At the start of the season they may even be behind Racing Point, and possibly Renault too. However, their bottomless pit of money will allow them to out-develop the others to take 3rd in the championship. Charles Leclerc is the most talented driver F1 has ever seen. He's still learning at this level but the focus for him this season is to complete his education by the end of the season. If he can, and if Ferrari give him a decent car with the new regulation changes in 2021 - then he will win the title in 2021. He will beat Sebastian Vettel over the course of the season, who is no longer as sharp as he once was.
4) Renault. Will probably start the season as the 5th fastest team behind the top three and Racing Point. However, they should easily be able to out-develop Racing Point and will pick up more podiums (plural) in the crazy races with a more reliable pair of drivers. Renault do have the strongest driver line-up on the grid, and it should be close all season between Daniel Ricciardo and Esteban Ocon. I expect Daniel to be ahead in the championship at the midway point, but Esteban's pace will grow as the season progresses following a year out of the sport - and the races in the latter half of the year mostly suit his style - so my prediction is Esteban to come out on top. It will be very close though.
5) Racing Point. Their car is effectively a 2019 Mercedes. However, they will more than likely shift their focus to 2021 earlier than most teams, ultimately meaning they don't fulfil their potential this year. There is an outside chance they could be the second fastest team on occasion at the start of the season. I do expect podiums. Sergio Perez will beat Lance Stroll over the course of the season, but it will be considerably closer than people expect. Lance has a bad reputation because he brings a lot of sponsorship money, but he's an incredibly fast driver in race trim and will surprise many this season. He does need to make a big step forward in qualifying performance though.
6) McLaren. They managed some impressive lap times during pre-season testing and both drivers seem happy. However, from analysing the behaviour of the car I do not feel like they were sandbagging as much as the other teams so I see them as the 6th quickest team without any real threat from behind over the season. Development will be steady as they struggle for finances which isn't widely reported in the media - although I am not sure why. There is in fact an outside chance that this could be their last season in F1 which would be a great shame. I have consistently heard rumours about them pulling out at the end of this season for several years now. Carlos Sainz's experience should beat Lando Norris over the season, but it will be an extremely close battle.
7) Alpha Tauri. I am predicting the battle for 7th to be the closest on the entire grid between Alpha Tauri and Alfa Romeo. Both teams should be close for the entire season but I feel that Alpha Tauri will just win out. Pierre Gasly will be slightly faster than Daniil Kvyat all season, and more crucially, he will be involved in less accidents.
8 ) Alfa Romeo. In terms of media, Alfa Romeo have been extremely quiet in the run up to the new season and I believe that's because they are some way short of where they anticipated they will be. For me, it's telling that their fastest lap in testing was set by reserve driver Robert Kubica rather than one of the race drivers. I don't really know what the issue is, but something doesn't feel right with this team at the moment. Having said that, Kimi Raikkonen will secure them a few really strong results, and win out over Antonio Giovinazzi comfortably. Antonio does have potential, but is incredibly inconsistent and seems to only impress once every seven races or so.
9) Williams. Huge, huge step forward compared to this time last year. In testing they were already 2.201s quicker than their qualifying time at the 2019 Spanish GP. They will be in the mix for points this season, but still not as high up the grid as they would like. There are a few reliability niggles too which will hurt them. George Russell is hugely talented, but I do feel like he got a lot of undeserved praise last season. This is a big year for him and I do expect him to comfortably beat rookie team mate Nicholas Latifi as he continues to be groomed for the Mercedes role once Lewis Hamilton hangs up his boots.
10) Haas. They will be in the midfield mix at the start of the season, but their development rate compared to other teams seems consistently poor. For whatever reason, they seem to struggle as the season progresses and get left behind. They also have reliability problems, and the weakest driver line-up on the grid. Romain Grosjean is the better driver, but it's a coinflip between him and Kevin Magnussen to see who comes out best. I would go for Romain on the basis that he will be involved in less collisions.
Bets:
Oddschecker is rubbish for F1 as it does not show all the season-long markets, which has made this very difficult.
Drivers' Championship - Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 with Sky Bet. I don't expect him to take the title this season, however Sky are seemingly the only company going EW three places and 6/1 on Valtteri is a very good price for that. Suggest 15 points EW (1-3 1/5).
https://m.skybet.com/formula-1/formula-1-2020-season/event/24889656Constructors' Championship W/O Big 3 - Renault @ 9/4 with Sky Bet. Good price, am surprised to see McLaren so short at 7/4. Suggest 10 points.
https://m.skybet.com/formula-1/formula-1-2020-season/event/25084729Contructors Matchbet 6 - Renault @ 3/2 with Ladbrokes. McLaren (1/2) vs Renault (3/2). I would have had the prices the other way around if anything! Suggest 12 points.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/formula-1/formula-1/world-championship/2020-constructors-matchbet/229827842/all-marketsHow Many Points Finishes Will George Russell have? - Over 0.5 @ 11/8 with Ladbrokes. I will be astounded if this doesn't come in. 25 points.
How Many Points Finishes Will Nicholas Latifi have? - Over 0.5 @ 7/4 with Ladbrokes. As above, although slight caution with the rookie driver. 15 points.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/formula-1/formula-1/world-championship/2020-season-points-finish/229875348/all-marketsAustralian GP specific bets will be reviewed tomorrow. Also, I may be requesting some bets over on Twitter so follow me if that's of interest, @f1peter27.
Fantasy F1I create a league for Blonde Poker, the code to join is fad5278f46.
If you're interested in having a buy-in for it, let me know. I'm thinking maybe £25 winner take all? By all means join for free also, you just won't be eligible for any cash prize.
https://fantasy.formula1.com/
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