Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Great thread on Brentford and Matthew Benham here

A professional sports gambler used analytics to turn a $700,000 loan into more than $300 million.

This is the wild story

https://twitter.com/JoePompliano/status/1400245761854652417

God read that, thanks Marky.

Sharpest of sharps, isn't he. Wonder what him and Bloom fell out over?

Have to make nice next season, though

Was wondering exactly that.

The games v Brighton will have added spice, for sure.

Brighton v Brentford might take over from the equally silly Brighton Palace local derby.  The Moneyball derby.

[Marky147]

Expensive rona test for Jonny Rahm!

[Chompy]

Ridiculous scenes.

Wonder if Denise will be imposing a Rule 4 here? They have recent form for it after all.

@PTBooms knew!

[tikay]

Expensive rona test for Jonny Rahm!

Just the £1.18 milly.

Proper bit of run-bad that.

[Marky147]

Expensive rona test for Jonny Rahm!

Just the £1.18 milly.

Proper bit of run-bad that.

Good job he's not short of a few quid.

Bet the online firms are having fun today

[Chompy]

Hmmm, 7.6 Croatia you say?

Against this England line up? Why are England suddenly being priced up like the world football version of Man City please?

The boo boys will only help our cause too.

[Ant040689]

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market

[bergeroo]

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market

Unibet's prices are often out of line on tennis outrights, butgood luck getting a bet on if you look down the list. So you have a favourite and can get on, then jobs a good un.

[Doobs]

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market

It is a big outlier, but until this week, it felt like she had been bang out of form since at least the start of Covid.  I don't even think she was in great form this week; a couple of matches were a struggle and she was clear top seed.  I'll be cheering her on, but won't be taking the price.  Think they could palp you and stop your account, and don't think it is worth it for that price.    

Katie Boulter was looking good before her injury FWIW.  Given she started so short against Watson, I don't think there will be much value going forward from backing her either.  I can definitely see her pulling off a shock against a higher seed, assuming she isn't going to drop out of Wimbledon with an injury.  

[bergeroo]

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market

It is a big outlier, but until this week, it felt like she had been bang out of form since at least the start of Covid.  I don't even think she was in great form this week; a couple of matches were a struggle and she was clear top seed.  I'll be cheering her on, but won't be taking the price.  Think they could palp you and stop your account, and don't think it is worth it for that price.    

Katie Boulter was looking good before her injury FWIW.  Given she started so short against Watson, I don't think there will be much value going forward from backing her either.  I can definitely see her pulling off a shock against a higher seed, assuming she isn't going to drop out of Wimbledon with an injury.  

If they call offering 90s when 45s are the best price elsewhere a palp then we might as well stop betting now, right?

I would imagine unibet just employ a part time work experience kid as their tennis trader and instead just let oeople bet a fiver.

[Ant040689]

kerber won wimbledon last year and is 120/1 with them. 50/1 best price elsewhere. You are right about these prices for a lot of players being out of line

*edit i misspoke above, she won it in 2018

[Doobs]

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market

It is a big outlier, but until this week, it felt like she had been bang out of form since at least the start of Covid.  I don't even think she was in great form this week; a couple of matches were a struggle and she was clear top seed.  I'll be cheering her on, but won't be taking the price.  Think they could palp you and stop your account, and don't think it is worth it for that price.    

Katie Boulter was looking good before her injury FWIW.  Given she started so short against Watson, I don't think there will be much value going forward from backing her either.  I can definitely see her pulling off a shock against a higher seed, assuming she isn't going to drop out of Wimbledon with an injury.  

If they call offering 90s when 45s are the best price elsewhere a palp then we might as well stop betting now, right?

I would imagine unibet just employ a part time work experience kid as their tennis trader and instead just let oeople bet a fiver.

"...or stop your account".  Given that has effectively happened to every account I have, then I don't think it is unreasonable to be wary of unadjusted price moves.   How much do they lay?  A fiver each way means you could lose an account for £3 or so of EV.   I wouldn't do it for that, though you'll probably lose it easy enough regardless.  I don't think picking big outliers is the best strategy for betting unless you have good access to a pool of accounts.

They shouldn't really call palp on mistakes like this, but that doesn't mean they won't.  Have seen. more laughable tales over the years.

[Ant040689]

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market

It is a big outlier, but until this week, it felt like she had been bang out of form since at least the start of Covid.  I don't even think she was in great form this week; a couple of matches were a struggle and she was clear top seed.  I'll be cheering her on, but won't be taking the price.  Think they could palp you and stop your account, and don't think it is worth it for that price.    

Katie Boulter was looking good before her injury FWIW.  Given she started so short against Watson, I don't think there will be much value going forward from backing her either.  I can definitely see her pulling off a shock against a higher seed, assuming she isn't going to drop out of Wimbledon with an injury.  

If they call offering 90s when 45s are the best price elsewhere a palp then we might as well stop betting now, right?

I would imagine unibet just employ a part time work experience kid as their tennis trader and instead just let oeople bet a fiver.

"...or stop your account".  Given that has effectively happened to every account I have, then I don't think it is unreasonable to be wary of unadjusted price moves.   How much do they lay?  A fiver each way means you could lose an account for £3 or so of EV.   I wouldn't do it for that, though you'll probably lose it easy enough regardless.  I don't think picking big outliers is the best strategy for betting unless you have good access to a pool of accounts.

They shouldn't really call palp on mistakes like this, but that doesn't mean they won't.  Have seen. more laughable tales over the years.

Advice taken heed of.

[bergeroo]

I feel like you will lose your account with a firm like unibet the first half decent bet you make, might as well make it a good one. So yeah, if you think Konta is slightly good value, then maybe leave it and wait for a better spot to get closed down.

 Or the alternative view is, why bother to even preserve an account like that - unless there is some kind of great promos that they do that I don't know about. Just do your betting and then cash out when you will inevitably get heavily limited.

As for Kerber. Pretty awful form. Only one Quarter Final in almost two years and not actually won a tournament since that 2018 Wimbledon victory.

[Chompy]

Accounts like Unibet are just there to be burnt. If there's one you like, just back it imo. Don't see them palping in this spot but they may well pull the plug.