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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331858 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #137730 on: April 10, 2021, 10:20:54 AM »

Fingers crossed wouldn't put anyone off shifting the win part on bf at 6/1 for a 5 units freeroll as we were only in the bet for the place part.
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Doobs
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« Reply #137731 on: April 10, 2021, 05:30:30 PM »

So just because I am an idiot and need to check. Bet 125 each way, 250 total and then get 125 back, right?

 
Anyone else get the 356 Grand National offer? Any each way fancies anyone for this year. I know nothing about racing.

What is the offer? They won't lay me a tenner each way (and that isn't just 356, it is all of them), never mind send me an offer.

Without knowing the offer I am a bit loathe to rec e/w horses.





Half your stake back on EW bets
Max refund 125
Refunded in withdrawable cash
Can be over multiple bets

Would assume its hard to have a bad bet when your getting it half price but would be interested in your thoughts also Doobs

I haven't got the wording, but assume you lose then you get half your stake back.

I wouldn't go crazy and back too many or the offer gets less valuable.  

I'd also be looking at bigger priced horses as the National is funny.  A lot of the favourites will fall, or not stay well, so the place terms aren't great.   So 5/2 the place on a 10/1 chance isn't value and it kind of negates the offer, ie there is no point backing 3 10/1 chances one getting a place and then getting the £125 back you would have done if you had gone for a banzai.  As an example, Burrows Saint is 10/1, in a normal big runner handicap you'd expect shorter than 5/2 the 4 places, here Betfair has him at 4/1.  He is a tiny bit shorter than 5/2 6 places, but 1/4 first 6 on a short one is nowhere near the value it normally is.

I backed Secret Reprieve at a big price, but just got my money back as it failed to get in.  The other I backed was Anibale Fly, which is the right sort of price (28/1), ran well in the National last time off 9lbs higher, and has a touch of class.  Here you get 7/1 6 places, Betfair says he should be 4/1.  I'd definitely take the price on this one, as he is getting shorter if anthing.

I can't back anything anymore, so haven't backed it, but Blacklion is probably way too old, but is carrying hardly any weight and has finshed in the places before.  There is zero chance he is 16/1 to place and you get half yourmoney back anyway, so you may as well punt.   Mister Malarky is another that is 33/1, the win price is fine and probably should be shorter than 8/1 with 6 places.  He hasn't gone this far bafore, but looks like he should get the trip.  I like Discorama a lot, but wouldn't take 16/1.  356 tend to match prices at 10am, so I'd hope to get 20/1 then if I was backing it.

You could back 2 or 3 of that lot, my preference would be to at least include Anibale Fly.  

  

Half stake back instantly when you place the bet you don't have to wait for it to be settled so you get it win or lose

Ah, so it looks like you get it regardless of any winnings, and it doesn't effect your winnings.  I don't think they used to do it that way.

I don't think it changes much, the each way bets are still better value on the bigger priced horses.  It does mean that you can bet a few more if you want to reduce variance.  I wouldn't go too far though, as a 356 account has so much value that I wouln't want to lose it by taking the piss.  The future as a Stars only fixed odds gambler is really grim.

EDIT

Ha FML, 356 are quarter first 5 not 6, so the place terms aren't as good as I thought.  Even more reason to avoid the short ones, and go for the longer priced ones.  The bets are all still good value because of the offer, so don't worry too much.

Ha Blacklion and Discorama 6th and 7th obv.  Anibale Fly never got going and Mister Malarky nearly as bad.

Great result though, Rachael Blackmore is so good.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
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« Reply #137732 on: April 10, 2021, 06:22:42 PM »

Yeah, she's a different gravy.
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Doobs
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« Reply #137733 on: April 10, 2021, 11:49:02 PM »

Fingers crossed wouldn't put anyone off shifting the win part on bf at 6/1 for a 5 units freeroll as we were only in the bet for the place part.

Looks like the wheels have come off a bit; he just hit an 8.  He is still with some hope of getting a place, could probably do with a couple of birdies to finish.

Matsuyama, Rose, Shauffele was pretty much my go to bets on the golf a year or so ago.  Not backed any of them this week. 

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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Chompy
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« Reply #137734 on: April 11, 2021, 12:35:44 AM »

https://m.skybet.com/football/sky-bet-league-one/event/26235898

8/15, 5/6, 14 Bar. If you don't want to offer prices, don't offer prices.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
arbboy
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« Reply #137735 on: April 11, 2021, 10:28:21 PM »

Anyone wanting one bet on the masters that is bang on the bf win market price and miles under the place price is Justin Thomas 11/1 1/5 first 9 at hills is the pick of all the bets based on ev compared to the highly liquid exchange market.  Getting 11/5 to place and nine places probably makes him close to 6/4 to place and you give up nothing on the win market commission free.

Not sure if the boss is even still placing bets nowadays but worth £50 ew if we are.

Going along nicely as we head into the weekend.

1 over on Day 1, he hit 5 under on Day 2 to leave himself 4 under & just three shots off the lead. Have to say, he looked in fine fettle yesterday. 

back to back bogeys on the 16/17th ruined an outside chance of nicking a place.
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vegaslover
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« Reply #137736 on: April 12, 2021, 11:57:11 AM »

Fingers crossed wouldn't put anyone off shifting the win part on bf at 6/1 for a 5 units freeroll as we were only in the bet for the place part.

Looks like the wheels have come off a bit; he just hit an 8.  He is still with some hope of getting a place, could probably do with a couple of birdies to finish.

Matsuyama, Rose, Shauffele was pretty much my go to bets on the golf a year or so ago.  Not backed any of them this week. 



Rose hasn't been in good form for sometime, that first round was an outlier.
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tikay
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« Reply #137737 on: April 12, 2021, 01:47:16 PM »


Can't believe Argue never put us on this, in the first at Windsor today;



1st Arboy Will @ 150/1
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Marky147
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« Reply #137738 on: April 12, 2021, 02:14:42 PM »


Can't believe Argue never put us on this, in the first at Windsor today;



1st Arboy Will @ 150/1

Com Cheesy
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Doobs
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« Reply #137739 on: April 12, 2021, 03:53:44 PM »


Can't believe Argue never put us on this, in the first at Windsor today;



1st Arboy Will @ 150/1

Com Cheesy

Some result for the connections, though they must be seething they didn't get on.  Or maybe Arbboy has been touring all the offices getting a couple of quid on in each?  

Edit.  Bit disrespectful beating the Queen's horse whilst in ths 8 days of mourning; they'll be carting Arbboy off to the Tower. 
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 04:00:45 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #137740 on: April 12, 2021, 04:35:11 PM »

First i heard of it was at lunchtime by tal via text in the pub having lunch and a beer after a haircut (25 deep the queue was at 910am this morning outside my barbers who doesn't do appointments) and gym/swim.   First monday back to reality and i miss Arbboy winning at 150/1!  Probably will never win again but the sp at 150/1 needs to be discussed because everyone is slagging off industry sps but there haave never been more horses winning at bigger than 100/1 than recently.   The industry firms know about fav/longshot bias and have moved to get rid of it imo in horse racing sp wise.   Is it a bad thing?  I don't know.  Jollies are going off much shorter than bf but at 2% a runner they should be if firms have decided fav/longshot bias makes no sense (which it doesn't to firms and they can suck up the variance)

What a name.   How most blondes mis slept my name when i first joined.   Would love to know the owners reasons for the name.  I never had a penny on or knew it was running until Tal messaged me at 2pm.  I obviously own 0% of it.   I haven't owned 1% of a dog in my life never mind a race horse.

Lovely to be back to normal today on a standard relaxing monday morning for me.  Monday is my Sunday as i have always said.  Felt like the prison had been unlocked at last rather than having to watch Jeremy Vine and Holly/Phil.   My local spoons beer garden was rammed at 1pm today.   Was nice to be out in the sun.   

One for the fat thread but i weighed in at the gym and have lost 33lbs since 30 Dec in my first weight in as i don't have scales at home which was much overdue after the chaos of the first lockdown last summer.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 05:01:49 PM by arbboy » Logged
tikay
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« Reply #137741 on: April 12, 2021, 05:10:27 PM »



33lbs? Proper diet that, well done.
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arbboy
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« Reply #137742 on: April 12, 2021, 05:14:00 PM »



33lbs? Proper diet that, well done.

Much easier losing 33lbs at my xmas weight than you and tom!   Tom had a proper grind out diet wise from his diary to lose two stone.  It is weird knowing you are doing a 3 month diet but week to week you have no idea about your weight other than your clothes fitting you different.   I think most long term diets would be much better not having daily/weekly weigh ins tbh.   They never motivate and always cause mental stress short term variance wise.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 05:18:38 PM by arbboy » Logged
horseplayer
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« Reply #137743 on: April 12, 2021, 08:14:03 PM »

Anybody who backs a John Bridger 2 yr old debutant needs sectioning Smiley

Real freakish performance was apparently very restless and noisy in the paddock (paddock judges done the lot not for the first time)

Probably be winning at Brighton from 52 in five years
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Marky147
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« Reply #137744 on: April 12, 2021, 08:18:47 PM »



33lbs? Proper diet that, well done.

+1

I'm just happy to not have put 33lbs on since Xmas Grin
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