Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Celtic are worth opposing again tomorrow after last weeks draw at Ross County.

Ledley and Kayal are confirmed out, Commons, Brown, Rogne and Samaras are all doubtful. Celtics focus is qualifying for the Champions League group stages (they will win the league anyway) and with the 2 nd leg of the qualifying round on Wednesday Neil Lennon won't risk any players who have knocks.

Last weeks performance at Ross County smacked of players with an eye on the CL in midweek and this could be similar at a ground where Celtic historically find it tough. Inverness are also unbeaten this season.

Recommend  £20 on Inverness at 6/1 with Laddies, Blue Sq or 365

Just as an aside on this does anyone else think that Celtic might be particularly opposable on handicaps this year especially after Euro trips.  They are fairly clearly going to walk this league and might struggle to get up for certain games especially when feeling slightly below par for whatever reason.  I kinda think the same about Rangers

Thanks.

That fits the Midi-Banzai bill perfectly, we have £20 with Ladbrokes @ 6/1, Inverness to beat Celtic.

ON

Selection6/1 - Inverness CT

EventInverness CT v Celtic Scottish

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Inverness CT
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £140.00
Time: 24/08/12 19:45
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000106

Just as an aside on this does anyone else think that Celtic might be particularly opposable on handicaps this year especially after Euro trips.  They are fairly clearly going to walk this league and might struggle to get up for certain games especially when feeling slightly below par for whatever reason.  I kinda think the same about Rangers.  they may coast a lot more this season than they would have done previously.

[Teacake]

Celtic are worth opposing again tomorrow after last weeks draw at Ross County.

Ledley and Kayal are confirmed out, Commons, Brown, Rogne and Samaras are all doubtful. Celtics focus is qualifying for the Champions League group stages (they will win the league anyway) and with the 2 nd leg of the qualifying round on Wednesday Neil Lennon won't risk any players who have knocks.

Last weeks performance at Ross County smacked of players with an eye on the CL in midweek and this could be similar at a ground where Celtic historically find it tough. Inverness are also unbeaten this season.

Recommend  £20 on Inverness at 6/1 with Laddies, Blue Sq or 365

Just as an aside on this does anyone else think that Celtic might be particularly opposable on handicaps this year especially after Euro trips.  They are fairly clearly going to walk this league and might struggle to get up for certain games especially when feeling slightly below par for whatever reason.  I kinda think the same about Rangers

Thanks.

That fits the Midi-Banzai bill perfectly, we have £20 with Ladbrokes @ 6/1, Inverness to beat Celtic.

ON

Selection6/1 - Inverness CT

EventInverness CT v Celtic Scottish

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Inverness CT
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £140.00
Time: 24/08/12 19:45
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000106

Just as an aside on this does anyone else think that Celtic might be particularly opposable on handicaps this year especially after Euro trips.  They are fairly clearly going to walk this league and might struggle to get up for certain games especially when feeling slightly below par for whatever reason.  I kinda think the same about Rangers.  they may coast a lot more this season than they would have done previously.

Yes, I was close to putting up Ross County +1 last week at 6/4 but left it,  ICT are the same price this week, I just thought that was a bit nitty.

I went the other way on Sevco/Rangers last week and backed them to win by 4 or more  at home to East Stirling who could lose to anyone in that league by 4 nevermind the new Rangers. In away games though yeah opposing them looks the way to go at least initially after a 90 minute draw at Brechin in the Ramsdens Cup and a last minute equaliser at Peterhead.

[tikay]

Bolton 2 Forest 2, with half an hour left.

[redarmi]

Interesting game that....for about 40 minutes of the game Forest played like they should have been the Even money faves.  Think just about every game in the championship this year has the potential  to be like that this year and in the early part of the season looking tobet dogs with a start has to be a break even proposition at worst.  In particular like the look of Derby tomorrow (or a lay of Wolves at 4/5 or worse).  Derby have shown the ability to score whilst Wolves have just sold their best two players and there may be a slightly negative vibe arouund the place.

[The Camel]

Interesting game that....for about 40 minutes of the game Forest played like they should have been the Even money faves.  Think just about every game in the championship this year has the potential  to be like that this year and in the early part of the season looking tobet dogs with a start has to be a break even proposition at worst.  In particular like the look of Derby tomorrow (or a lay of Wolves at 4/5 or worse).  Derby have shown the ability to score whilst Wolves have just sold their best two players and there may be a slightly negative vibe arouund the place.

Not so sure about Wolves.

Heard Fletcher wasn't very popular and the other players might be pleased to see the back of him.

[redarmi]

To be fair looking back on my post I am not sure they have actually sold their two best players either......just can't see how they are considered 4/5 shots tomorrow though.

[edgascoigne]

Interesting game that....for about 40 minutes of the game Forest played like they should have been the Even money faves.  Think just about every game in the championship this year has the potential  to be like that this year and in the early part of the season looking tobet dogs with a start has to be a break even proposition at worst.  In particular like the look of Derby tomorrow (or a lay of Wolves at 4/5 or worse).  Derby have shown the ability to score whilst Wolves have just sold their best two players and there may be a slightly negative vibe arouund the place.

Derby were woeful in the 2nd half against Wednesday. Woeful. I've never seen a team try to run the clock down like it (from the start of the second half if not before!). They were 1/2 shots in the betting at half time but as a man who was there I would have ranked this as one of the worst twos on shots I've ever seen.

[rfgqqabc]

Interesting game that....for about 40 minutes of the game Forest played like they should have been the Even money faves.  Think just about every game in the championship this year has the potential  to be like that this year and in the early part of the season looking tobet dogs with a start has to be a break even proposition at worst.  In particular like the look of Derby tomorrow (or a lay of Wolves at 4/5 or worse).  Derby have shown the ability to score whilst Wolves have just sold their best two players and there may be a slightly negative vibe arouund the place.

Derby were woeful in the 2nd half against Wednesday. Woeful. I've never seen a team try to run the clock down like it (from the start of the second half if not before!). They were 1/2 shots in the betting at half time but as a man who was there I would have ranked this as one of the worst twos on shots I've ever seen.

Derby are serial under performers and Clough in charge seems clueless. Never seen them play well. Championship is awesome as always this year.

As an aside, I am fairly confident the markets are inefficient at the start of the season (can't phrase this without sounding idiotic) and this is the best time to exploit it. Bookmakers are much better post christmas, so take any edge you can now. I've seen a professional gamblers graphs for the last five seasons, and in all of the above he had a significantly higher ROI in the early part of the season, despite refining his model etc etc.

[horseplayer]

Interesting game that....for about 40 minutes of the game Forest played like they should have been the Even money faves.  Think just about every game in the championship this year has the potential  to be like that this year and in the early part of the season looking tobet dogs with a start has to be a break even proposition at worst.  In particular like the look of Derby tomorrow (or a lay of Wolves at 4/5 or worse).  Derby have shown the ability to score whilst Wolves have just sold their best two players and there may be a slightly negative vibe arouund the place.

Derby were woeful in the 2nd half against Wednesday. Woeful. I've never seen a team try to run the clock down like it (from the start of the second half if not before!). They were 1/2 shots in the betting at half time but as a man who was there I would have ranked this as one of the worst twos on shots I've ever seen.

Derby are serial under performers and Clough in charge seems clueless. Never seen them play well. Championship is awesome as always this year.

As an aside, I am fairly confident the markets are inefficient at the start of the season (can't phrase this without sounding idiotic) and this is the best time to exploit it. Bookmakers are much better post christmas, so take any edge you can now. I've seen a professional gamblers graphs for the last five seasons, and in all of the above he had a significantly higher ROI in the early part of the season, despite refining his model etc etc.

not nice to say but how clough is managing at this level is beyond me

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0710, Saturday August 25th

PROFIT on Month £580.00

Unsettled Bets  - £467.50

The spreadsheet is here...


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0740, Saturday August 25th

We had a losing day, & not before time. Only about £20, & we can handle that. In fact, we can be grateful, we could have lost a good deal more, but we managed to duck a few losers.

Bit complicated yesterday, but one football bet completed - Notts Forest to beat Bolton. It was a draw, so we lost. Happy with the bet & price though, we had 3/1 in a game which Forest dominated for long periods of the first half, though not so much later. Odd match actually. An evening meal of Value Pie was most enjoyable.

We also did a bet/lay thing to give us a free £20 thanks to Mr Galloway & Paddy Power. The Text Bet was once again a nightmare to get processed, it's odd that they advertise & promote it, then it is so difficult to get on. Anyway, we won our free money, then promptly invested it spin-up style on a horse which lost. We had a great price though, we were on a bet to nothing, literally. More Pie, anyone?

In Golf, we had a bad day. McDowell & Haas both missed the cut. Which is a bad thing. We still have Bubba going for us though, he is on -2, with the Leaders @ 6, 7 & 8 under.

Our "Top Korean" bet is also under it at the moment, too, Dr Noh is on Level Par, with Choi @ 4 under.

The weather is due to turn today, 5 & 10 shot swings will not be a surprise, & we might get out of it. That's called whistling in the dark.

In the bicycle race in Spain, it is as you were, our Hero leads, 10 seconds ahead of Froome & half a minute ahead of Contador.  

http://www.lavuelta.com/12/es/resultados/index.html?e=7

We placed a few football bets yesterday, + a cricket bet, details to follow.

Performance of the day yesterday, no question about it, was Ortensia in the Nunthorpe. A 7 year old mare, trained in Australia, over here to plunder our top sprints, she gave the 3 & 4 year olds an 8 length start, & thrillingly still got up on the line despite sticky going. A tremendous performance by a mare as game as they come.  Whatever way you look at it......  

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Quite a mixed bag today, we have interests in Cycling, Golf, Cricket, & Football, but only for small sums.

We want Inverness CT to beat Celtic for a mini banzai, Hazard to win a penalty for a bigger Banzai. Northampton to beat Southend & Leicester to beat Blackburn are our "sensible" bets.

We have two recommends outstanding, Swansea v West Ham, plus the 2 suggestions by Mr Dung. A decision will be made on all three this morning.

In cricket, we have Yorkshire to win the T20 Final thing in Cardiff. Weather here in London is awful, torrential rain, so the Cardiff match may convert from T20 to T5, taking the "skill" (!) out of it. That will play into our hands of anything, as we are on the outsider of four, £20 @ 7/2.  

York racing continues, with the Ebor today's centrepiece, with Goodwood televised too. The Channel 4 races are here....

 http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?r_date=2012-08-25&type=TV

In bets that will complete today, we have £130 at risk, & if we can get even 1 or two home, we won't do too bad. If.

Today's oddest bet? That's easy.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Today's summary, so far.....

11am, Yorkshire to win the T20 Finals Day, £20 @ 7/2.

12.45pm, Inverness to beat Celtic, £20 @ 6/1, Teacake

2.30, Brett Hodgson to be Lance Todd Trophy Winner, £20 @ 7/1, hector

3pm, Northampton to beat Southend, £40 @ 6/4, 77Dave

3pm, Leicester to beat Blackburn, £40 @ 9/4, Horneris

3pm, Notts Co to beat Walsall, £20 @ 5/6, Dung Beetle

3pm, Oxford to beat Plymouth, £22 @ 8/11, Dung Beetle

5.30pm, Hazard to win a penalty, £10 @ 18/1, horsey.


Invested = £192.
  

EDITED to include later bets.

[tikay]

Yesterday's Quiz, what sporting event was this photo connected to?

Well believe it or not, that is - or was - York Racecourse Station.

There was a £5,000 prize for the winner, but nobody got it right.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

My first tip on here.  I really fancy 2 home bankers in the lower leagues so I'm going to tip up a double:

League 1:  Notts Co v Walsall
Notts Co have started well, winning 3-2 at Crewe on the opening day and following up with a 2-0 win over Hartlepool.  Walsall on the other hand suffered a poor home reverse to Doncaster first up before recovering to get a 1-1 point at limited Oldham last night.  County are 5/6 with the high street bookies but I am hoping for evens when Betfair have the game up.

League 2: Oxford v Plymouth
Oxford have sprinted out of the blocks winning 2-0 at fancied Bristol Rovers before beating and equally fancied Southend by the same scoreline at home last night.  Plymouth started by losing 0-2 to an Aldershot team who were beaten at home themselves last night and then managed a 0-0 draw at Dagenham last night.  Oxford are 4/5 with the bookies.

My recommendation is a double on Notts Co and Oxford and I expect them both to win with something to spare.  Both teams will be aware of the benefits of a strong start after watching the promotion battles for their divisions from upper midtable last year.  They know a 9 point 100% start sends out a real message. 

With B365 a £100 stake gives a total return of £330.  I am hoping for even better with Befair.

I managed to match, or almost, your target prices. We don't do doubles (generally) & £100 was way too much for Mr Nit, but we have had £20 on each to welcome you aboard, as we need new blood. Don't let me down! Incidentally, your suggestion was to use Bet365, but I'm sort of banned/restricted there.

We have £20 @ 5/6, Notts County to beat Walsall, with Joe Coral.

£22 @ 8/11, Oxford to beat Plymouth, Ladbrokes

ON

Single(s) - Win Receipt No.: 31717939 
Notts County v Walsall - Match (90 Minutes Play) 
Notts County @ 5/6 
 
Stake: £20.00 (£20.00 x 1 line) 


Selection8/11 - Oxford Utd

EventOxford Utd v Plymouth English

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Oxford Utd
1 line at £22.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £22.00
Potential Return: £38.00
Time: 25/08/12 08:44
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000108