Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

What's coming up?

The 2nd ODI between England & South Africa takes place today, from Southampton of all places. Cricket International matches should be held at proper venues - Lords, Headingley, Trent Bridge & the like, but I guess this is taking Cricket to the Colonies.

The betting market can barely split them, going generally 4/5 England, Evens South Africa, though Stan James go 10/11 both.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-odis/england-v-south-africa-[2nd-odi]/winner

The sub-markets, which may hold more interest, are here....

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-odis/england-v-south-africa-[2nd-odi]/betting-markets

The Bicycle race resumes today, with our chap leading the field.

The US Open Tennis continues. As far as I can tell, Venus Williams did not play yesterday, though I may be incorrect there.

Andy Murray safely negotiated his opening match yesterday, despite some racket throwing tantrums.



Football returns to the TV screens tonight, with the enthralling League Cup tie between Nottingham Forest & Wigan Athletic being chosen as the match to watch. Wigan can be backed at 2/1.

 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/nottingham-forest-v-wigan/winner

There are some other decent games on tonight, too, with some cracking value to be had, if we did but know where....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup

Finally, we gotta horse in the 4.30 @ Epsom, being Novirak, £20 @ 5/1.

we gotta horse?

Back in the day, a chap who went by the name of Ras Prince Monolulu was famous for his banter in Petticoat Lane, and at many racetracks in Britain, mainly Epsom. He was said to be the most famous black person in Britain at the time.

His catchphrase, adopted by many down the years, was I gotta horse.

His real name was Peter Mackay, & the story goes that he died in the most odd way, after choking on a "strawberry cream" from a box of, ironically, Black Magic chocolates, which Jeffrey Bernard gave him. Jeffrey Bernard of course, was famously unwell in The Spectator for many a year in his superb "Low-Life" weekly column, which was described as a weekly suicide note.   


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Monolulu


Almost everyone followed his tips, but these days we are reduced to relying on Chompy.

Apologies for the ramble. That's what happens when I forget to take my tablets.

[hector62]

I had already decided that I would accept 7/4 for Dr Noh but not 6/4. A new bookie has entered the market and Ladbrokes go 15/8 Dr Noh to be top Korean so I recommend £30 ( note the 50% increase in less than a week !).

One thing that I failed to include last week in this recommendation, a bit like a used car salesman not mentioning the obvious rust on the door, was the only thing that almost put me off this bet last week and that was that Dr Noh does seem to play better after he has played a tournament or two following a break. So that would seem to improve our chances even more.

[tikay]

I had already decided that I would accept 7/4 for Dr Noh but not 6/4. A new bookie has entered the market and Ladbrokes go 15/8 Dr Noh to be top Korean so I recommend £30 ( note the 50% increase in less than a week !).

One thing that I failed to include last week in this recommendation, a bit like a used car salesman not mentioning the obvious rust on the door, was the only thing that almost put me off this bet last week and that was that Dr Noh does seem to play better after he has played a tournament or two following a break. So that would seem to improve our chances even more.

Excellent, thank you. 50% increase, ooooh.

I had a look first thing this morning, & it was still just Sky Bet quoting that market, & I can't bet with them anyway, so this is good news, the better price even more so.

For ease of maths, & because I have a fetish for symmetrical numbers, I have upped your bet to £32, I hope you don't mind.

Not sure what others think, & I know we got a little fortunate to win with this bet last week, but it seems to me to be a "follow until beaten" bet.

We have £32 with Ladbrokes, Dr Noh, Top Korean, Deutsche Bank Golf Tourney.

ON

Selection15/8 - Seung-Yul Noh

EventTop Korean Player Deutsche Bank Championship

MarketTop Korean Player
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Seung-Yul Noh
1 line at £32.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £32.00
Potential Return: £92.00
Time: 28/08/12 09:05
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000109

[hector62]

I do not mind £32 at all. One of the reasons I am liking the Doctor so much is, to use a racehorse phrase, his genuineness. In last weeks comp in the final round he was first out and had to have a marker yet he still shot a creditable 71. I think he has a fine work ethic. He has shown us before that on his day he can also shoot very low. I was even tempted to have a dabble on him with Hills to be  top 10 this week at 14-1 as I would make him about a 10-1 shot, but then my nittiness got the better of me.

[tikay]

I do not mind £32 at all. One of the reasons I am liking the Doctor so much is, to use a racehorse phrase, his genuineness. In last weeks comp in the final round he was first out and had to have a marker yet he still shot a creditable 71. I think he has a fine work ethic. He has shown us before that on his day he can also shoot very low. I was even tempted to have a dabble on him with Hills to be  top 10 this week at 14-1 as I would make him about a 10-1 shot, but then my nittiness got the better of me.

God bless nittiness.

From my short time observing Dr Noh's scores, the feature seems to be that he "stays on", & never gives up.

Not sure he is a "Top 10" candidate, though, but our Golf Corries will put up their previews in a day or so, & we can take a view then.

[TightEnd]

CB40 Cricket

Sussex won their group with something to spare

8 wins, a loss and 4 no results

Warwickshire finished second and went through to the semi's as best runner up


Sussex have been a form horse all year, and as said previously at home to a weakened Hampshire should be a warm order to make the final.

Warwickshire have to go to Lancashire for the semi.

This will be played at Old Trafford

For the past two years Old Trafford has been undergoing a transformation. The pitch was turned 90 degrees, and the Old pavillion knocked down, and this monstrosity has gone up alongside it



Now why is this important?

Well when you relay a square, it takes a while for it to bed in. the pitches go dead until they mature. This has happened at Old Trafford. Lancashire pick loads of wily old spinners and throttle the life out of games

One chap, Gary Keedy



trundles up to the stumps, whirls in off a pace and is unhittable

This is a bad draw for Warwickshire who are better in seam, and big hitting

Lancashire I believe won almost all their CB40 games at Old Trafford this year

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/tables/default.stm

This is why they are outsider of 4. Talented team but course and distrance is adverse.


I like the Sussex bet that was put up, on the outrights, for around £20-30, but its now down to 2-1. I think 2-1 will go, and they'll make the final and be odds-on in that too

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/cb40-league/clydesdale-bank-40/winner

[horseplayer]

tikay and others may be interested in this excellent artcile from timeform handicapper simon rowlands on sectional times at york

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-debate/simon-rowlands/sectional-debrief-yorkshire-ebor-festival-260812-43.html

particularly interesting is ortensia who when watching live looked to have flown home but in reality the others literally stopped and she maintained her pace

[tikay]

CB40 Cricket

Sussex won their group with something to spare

8 wins, a loss and 4 no results

Warwickshire finished second and went through to the semi's as best runner up


Sussex have been a form horse all year, and as said previously at home to a weakened Hampshire should be a warm order to make the final.

Warwickshire have to go to Lancashire for the semi.

This will be played at Old Trafford

For the past two years Old Trafford has been undergoing a transformation. The pitch was turned 90 degrees, and the Old pavillion knocked down, and this monstrosity has gone up alongside it

The suggestion being what, Rich? We back Sussex OUTRIGHT, for the Trophy, or to win their Semi?

PS - Any thoughts on today's ODI?

[Chompy]

Second round of the Carling Cup? Isn't this usually the time to blind back lower-league clubs away at Premiership boys?

Any mileage in 6/1 Tranmere @ Villa, 8/1 Scunny @ Norwich, 5/1 Swindon @ Stoke, 7/1 Posh @ Reading?

Chris Hughton never had the slightest interest in this comp when at Newcastle. He put out a complete second-string at our place when we beat them 2-0 hard held a couple of seasons ago.

[TightEnd]

CB40 Cricket

Sussex won their group with something to spare

8 wins, a loss and 4 no results

Warwickshire finished second and went through to the semi's as best runner up


Sussex have been a form horse all year, and as said previously at home to a weakened Hampshire should be a warm order to make the final.

Warwickshire have to go to Lancashire for the semi.

This will be played at Old Trafford

For the past two years Old Trafford has been undergoing a transformation. The pitch was turned 90 degrees, and the Old pavillion knocked down, and this monstrosity has gone up alongside it

The suggestion being what, Rich? We back Sussex OUTRIGHT, for the Trophy, or to win their Semi?

PS - Any thoughts on today's ODI?

Have added to the post above

Today's ODI? Not really. Evens England, S Africa 10/11, so no one's got a clue

The Ageas Bowl (yuk), probably the most soullless of all cricket venues

One road in, one road out, allow several hours after the game to leave

Don't like the place, it normally suits pace off the ball and neither team really set up for that


One lovely stand though, with embompoints to die for

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

tikay and others may be interested in this excellent artcile from timeform handicapper simon rowlands on sectional times at york

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-debate/simon-rowlands/sectional-debrief-yorkshire-ebor-festival-260812-43.html

particularly interesting is ortensia who when watching live looked to have flown home but in reality the others literally stopped and she maintained her pace

Excellent piece, thanks.

[TightEnd]

Second round of the Carling Cup? Isn't this usually the time to blind back lower-league clubs away at Premiership boys?

Any mileage in 6/1 Tranmere @ Villa, 8/1 Scunny @ Norwich, 5/1 Swindon @ Stoke, 7/1 Posh @ Reading?

Chris Hughton never had the slightest interest in this comp when at Newcastle. He put out a complete second-string at our place when we beat them 2-0 hard held a couple of seasons ago.

Scunny is a really interesting bet. Would be surprised if Norwich gave a toss about this game

[tikay]

Second round of the Carling Cup? Isn't this usually the time to blind back lower-league clubs away at Premiership boys?

Any mileage in 6/1 Tranmere @ Villa, 8/1 Scunny @ Norwich, 5/1 Swindon @ Stoke, 7/1 Posh @ Reading?

Chris Hughton never had the slightest interest in this comp when at Newcastle. He put out a complete second-string at our place when we beat them 2-0 hard held a couple of seasons ago.

Yup. We await the comment of our Football chaps.

Looks like plenty going off tonight.

[DungBeetle]

The early stages of the league cup often throw up a number of big priced winners as teams field reserve teams or blood their youngsters.  The problem as ever is where to find them.   I'm going to throw up a minimum bet for consideration.

My team are Watford, and are at home tonight to Bradford.   Bradford look value to me.  The Hornets were impressive in beating a surprisingly insipid Birmingham City team on Saturday, but with a trip to Derby on Saturday coming up, I imagine Zola will use this fixture to play some youngsters and some of the new signings who haven't had a chance to start yet (Belleck and Anya).  I think Zola will rest Vydra and Abdi tonight who have been by far our most influential players so far.  Bear in mind the Watford long ball merchants are still getting to grips with Zolas short passing mentality so a duff performance can be thrown in at any time.  We were shocking against Ipswich a week ago losing to a team who followed that up with a 0-6 reverse at Blackpool.

I have high hopes for the Pozzo/Zola project, but I think the start of this season will have lots of mixed performances.

Bradford for their part are high up in L2, and must have high confidence after beating Wimbledon 5-1 on Saturday.  Watford have lost at home to Notts County and Cheltenham at similar points in the league cup in recent seasons, and Bradford seem an upgrade on these pair (Notts Co were L2 at that time).

Recommendation:  1 point on Bradford at 11/2 with Betfair.

[tikay]

Rich,

One lovely stand though, with embompoints to die for

I have no idea what "embompoints" are, so I googled it.

It returned this answer....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=34057.570

So I still don't know. Is the Stand at that horribly common cricket ground something to do with a Boeing 747?