I don't really understand how an approach that doesn't take into consideration players can be successful. Lets say for example you are betting over 2.5 goals in a Manchester United game because the line is Evens over 2.5 goals and every MU game this year has had three or more goals. That seems like wonderful value in a vacuum. If I now tell you that Rooney, Hernandez, Nani, Pogba, Berbatov and Owen are all injured for United and rio Ferdinand and Vidic have both coming back into defence from six months out. Do you still want to back it? The football market is so sophisticated these days that betting on total goals without looking at every single element. I will give you an example....I am friends with a statistician who has just completed his phd on improving the basic model that syndicates such as Tony Blooms use before they look at things like injuries. He measured his success against bookmakers markets and was delighted to find that he would have only lost 5% on stakes against a bookies theoretical margin of 11% and this was without looking at any injuries/motivational factors/travel etc etc it was just number crunching and it was performing better than bookies but it couldn't overcome the margin. I suppose what I am saying is that your methods may have value and I am not criticising it from a modelling perspective but I would bet big money that unless you are looking at the other factors you will not be able to make a profit against general bookies prices and that is the aim of the game!!!
Red
Can't disagree with you at all ... the main points are
I'm not a Pro Punter ( although I'm beginning to think the amount I punt I should be ) therefore to me its more fun than anything..the model I have created significantly improves the chances I have of winning...
I know its flawed but it still improves my chances greatly.. its small punts with big wins and so far has been quite successful..long term maybe not so much but i will refine as I go..
If I was totally serious in a big way and I wanted it to be my worldly income I would of course begin to factor in the data we have discussed.
the thing with the weird and wonderful leagues they are a lot easier to judge than the UK or main euro leagues...they are usually significantly under or over the market I have targeted especially say the eastern Euro leagues/Greek etc...
A great example of your point is the NBA which I like to punt...the bearing that fatigue/certain player injury and homecourt advantage has on games ( because even the worse teams are competitive such is the high skill level of all the players ) is massive..this is a market where number crunching wouldn't work but in NBA I am learning to look for how long a teams game streak has been/how long they have been on the road etc etc....
In all seriousness you are quite correct..but the fact I'm not deadly serious, make my money elsewhere and just enjoy the sweats balance it out...
by the way your one of the few on here that seems to know what his talking about and your always constructive rather than trying to take cheap shots like some on here...
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