Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Your point about too few people doing markets is a good one.  At VC we used to just basically price things on demand basically as there were only 14 of us in the office and we had to answer the phones, make trading decisions, price events and settle the bets too.  Nobody in the office had the first idea about sports like Formula One and we often used price from the Post on races without having any idea qualifying had taken place!!!!!  You soon learn though and I wouldn't have changed it for the world because we were a step ahead of the punters as often as we were behind them.  Was thinking about the First Goalscorer markets the other night when RVP was 9/4 but buy some books on punting from the time and you will see that the general expert consensus was that all of those markets were for mugs and most sharp punters just didn't look at them at all.  My partner in crime at the moment was also my manager in that first Ladbrokes shop and he actually did twig onto the fact the FGS;s were too big but instead of just betting the singles he got greedy and went for the jackpot multiples (Lucky 15's with 3x odds tbf).  He hit 3 a few times but never actually managed to have it off.

That was similar to betting the 2-2 draws off the correct score charts too at 18 and 20/1 in leagues where the goal lines were higher, most firms used the same 'foreign leagues' correct score chart on the back of the coupon.

[redarmi]

Funnily enough I had a brief discussion with the HKJC the other day.  Only a handful of firms/roles could get me back into the game but they are one.

[bobby1]

was it Stevie?

I know it was the same with us too, tho we spent about two seasons as a team betting minus 2 1/2 one side and plus 3 1/2 or better the other where we could, or minus 6 1/2 and plus 7 1/2 or bigger and making a nice profit in the long run.

Yup.

He's head of trading at NZ TAB last I heard.

And probably still hates giving punters their money back.

We might have missed the boat now too Keith, I almost went to work for the jockey club about 7-8 years ago when they expanded their football product. The guy that I worked with that did take the plunge is now in charge of the footy dept and a couple of guys I recommended to him are getting chunks out there too. The very cleverly had them on a loyalty bonus, which matured every 3 years. They then got them on another 3 year loyalty bonus with each new contract.

mbn

Isn't enough money in the world that would entice me to live in Hong Kong.

New Zealand however, is a different matter!

yes, I didn't fancy it myself but the dosh was v tempting. If I had been single I would deffo have gone.

New Zealand does sound more tempting tho.

[bobby1]

Funnily enough I had a brief discussion with the HKJC the other day.  Only a handful of firms/roles could get me back into the game but they are one.

I did see they had some jobs in the RP recently, I still keep in tough with some of the guys that went out there so if you want to ask any questions of people that have been out there a while let me know mate.

[adnmdv]

Although you've all pointed out how bookies have made major long-term ricks in the past, it's kinda also easy to say in hindsight that these errors were obvious, imo. 100% believe that similar long-term pricing errors (though perhaps not to the same extent) and probably out there right now in some markets, it's just that those who know about it are obviously not screaming from the rooftops!

[The Camel]

Although you've all pointed out how bookies have made major long-term ricks in the past, it's kinda also easy to say in hindsight that these errors were obvious, imo. 100% believe that similar long-term pricing errors (though perhaps not to the same extent) and probably out there right now in some markets, it's just that those who know about it are obviously not screaming from the rooftops!

It baffles me how they let the first goalscorer thing go on for so long.

Surely when they looked at their bottom line at booths in football stadiums such as St James's (Shearer), Highbury (Wright) and Anfield (Rush) would show them there was something seriously wrong with their prices.

Yet, it was 6/1 the field for years.

I don't doubt there are still mistakes made. Yet, just like in poker, there are too many clever people in the game nowadays. Can anyone truly exploit an edge for long nowadays without getting found out?

I had 3 fresh accounts restricted this morning, which had only been used to bet on Cheltenham.

If someone found a fudamental pricing mistake, it would have to be in unusual market, which would be nigh on impossible to exploit the way bookmakers operate these days.

[The Camel]

And serves the pathetic bastards right for restricting an account which had been betting exclusively on the biggest horse race meeting of the year.

They would have got all the money back and more they lost in the first three days if they had held their nerve one more day!

[bobby1]

Although you've all pointed out how bookies have made major long-term ricks in the past, it's kinda also easy to say in hindsight that these errors were obvious, imo. 100% believe that similar long-term pricing errors (though perhaps not to the same extent) and probably out there right now in some markets, it's just that those who know about it are obviously not screaming from the rooftops!

That is true for sure. One of them in the area I play in now is only small but happens a lot is the amount of firms that want to put up almost BF win prices out on golf events and then bet them with each way terms is a real basic error. I spoke to a guy that heads a trading team at another firm a few months ago and he expressed his dissatisfaction that every week the win figures they see in the field books are always diluted massively when they hit settle by the place returns. Towards the end of the third round in last weeks US event it was bet something like 10/11 7/2 5/1 28/1 33 33 50 50 50 100+. You wouldn't get a good ew bet on in that book if it was a horse race.

When they have realised 2 hours after the round has finished that the place book at 1/5 1,2,3 is all wrong they went 1/3 1,2 which was what most firms had been ages ago. The 5/1 shot won in the end so the double whammy is a fancied runner going into the 4th round won and they have probably laid far more on him than they would have done at a 1/5 1,2,3 than if they had thought about it earlier and bet the right place terms.

[Chompy]

Reading those bad pricing stories make me sigh I wasn't able to get into betting a few years earlier! I've already seen myself markets get loads harder, those past days sound like just free money times though. Supposedly firms were also doing 1/2 odds ew goalscorers for a while as well, which they obviously lost loads at! It's been mentioned in other threads before, but I wonder (not knowing myself how it was 'back then') how much Betfair was a game-changer, in terms of showing bookies clearly when and where their own prices were horribly off (not that it stops them occasionally these days...)

Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to professional punters ever.

Could make a comfortable living paying 10% tax on all bets back then.

And never had an account closed.

Now I make a marginal living, and every bookmaker in the world wants to close me down.

Hear this a lot and how Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to bookmakers ever. Can believe the latter but, as punters, it was either the best or the worst.

*Also means one can back Cloudy Lane at 14/1 and trade out at around 5/1 for a freebie. Assume this was done by all ante-post bettors.

[The Camel]

Reading those bad pricing stories make me sigh I wasn't able to get into betting a few years earlier! I've already seen myself markets get loads harder, those past days sound like just free money times though. Supposedly firms were also doing 1/2 odds ew goalscorers for a while as well, which they obviously lost loads at! It's been mentioned in other threads before, but I wonder (not knowing myself how it was 'back then') how much Betfair was a game-changer, in terms of showing bookies clearly when and where their own prices were horribly off (not that it stops them occasionally these days...)

Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to professional punters ever.

Could make a comfortable living paying 10% tax on all bets back then.

And never had an account closed.

Now I make a marginal living, and every bookmaker in the world wants to close me down.

Hear this a lot and how Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to bookmakers ever. Can believe the latter but, as punters, it was either the best or the worst.

*Also means one can back Cloudy Lane at 14/1 and trade out at around 5/1 for a freebie. Assume this was done by all ante-post bettors.

For losing punters, betfair was (and is) brilliant.

[adnmdv]

Although you've all pointed out how bookies have made major long-term ricks in the past, it's kinda also easy to say in hindsight that these errors were obvious, imo. 100% believe that similar long-term pricing errors (though perhaps not to the same extent) and probably out there right now in some markets, it's just that those who know about it are obviously not screaming from the rooftops!

It baffles me how they let the first goalscorer thing go on for so long.

Surely when they looked at their bottom line at booths in football stadiums such as St James's (Shearer), Highbury (Wright) and Anfield (Rush) would show them there was something seriously wrong with their prices.

Yet, it was 6/1 the field for years.

I don't doubt there are still mistakes made. Yet, just like in poker, there are too many clever people in the game nowadays. Can anyone truly exploit an edge for long nowadays without getting found out?

I had 3 fresh accounts restricted this morning, which had only been used to bet on Cheltenham.

If someone found a fudamental pricing mistake, it would have to be in unusual market, which would be nigh on impossible to exploit the way bookmakers operate these days.

Do you mean 6/1 for every player in the field?

[The Camel]

Reading those bad pricing stories make me sigh I wasn't able to get into betting a few years earlier! I've already seen myself markets get loads harder, those past days sound like just free money times though. Supposedly firms were also doing 1/2 odds ew goalscorers for a while as well, which they obviously lost loads at! It's been mentioned in other threads before, but I wonder (not knowing myself how it was 'back then') how much Betfair was a game-changer, in terms of showing bookies clearly when and where their own prices were horribly off (not that it stops them occasionally these days...)

Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to professional punters ever.

Could make a comfortable living paying 10% tax on all bets back then.

And never had an account closed.

Now I make a marginal living, and every bookmaker in the world wants to close me down.

Hear this a lot and how Betfair was absolutely the worst thing that happened to bookmakers ever. Can believe the latter but, as punters, it was either the best or the worst.

*Also means one can back Cloudy Lane at 14/1 and trade out at around 5/1 for a freebie. Assume this was done by all ante-post bettors.

So did you back CL at 14/1 because you thought it was value or because you thought it would shorten in the market?

[The Camel]

Although you've all pointed out how bookies have made major long-term ricks in the past, it's kinda also easy to say in hindsight that these errors were obvious, imo. 100% believe that similar long-term pricing errors (though perhaps not to the same extent) and probably out there right now in some markets, it's just that those who know about it are obviously not screaming from the rooftops!

It baffles me how they let the first goalscorer thing go on for so long.

Surely when they looked at their bottom line at booths in football stadiums such as St James's (Shearer), Highbury (Wright) and Anfield (Rush) would show them there was something seriously wrong with their prices.

Yet, it was 6/1 the field for years.

I don't doubt there are still mistakes made. Yet, just like in poker, there are too many clever people in the game nowadays. Can anyone truly exploit an edge for long nowadays without getting found out?

I had 3 fresh accounts restricted this morning, which had only been used to bet on Cheltenham.

If someone found a fudamental pricing mistake, it would have to be in unusual market, which would be nigh on impossible to exploit the way bookmakers operate these days.

Do you mean 6/1 for every player in the field?

No, it means every player was 6/1 or bigger.

You haven't heard that expression?

[adnmdv]

I had always thought it referred to the 'rest of the field' outside specifically priced up runners being 6/1! Learn something new etc.

Unfortunately it really wasn't that long ago that I was able to back Messi week in, week out @ ludicrous odds like 9/2 at home to mediocre La Liga side X! 100+ goals later and bookies seemingly have cottoned onto that Messi bloke...

[The Camel]

I had always thought it referred to the 'rest of the field' outside specifically priced up runners being 6/1! Learn something new etc.

That's what it means in Vegas books.