Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

I really like Ipswich in this anyway.  Huddersfield strike me as overrated and without Rhodes they will struggle.  No massive view on Ipswich but I instinctively like backing teams after a mauling although I did oppose midweek this should be different.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0630, Thursday August 30th

PROFIT on Month £698.50

Unsettled Bets  - £369.50

The spreadsheet is here...


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0720, Thursday August 30th

Tuesday was all action, Wednesday was all talk. Every day is different. I will try & catch up on some of the the replies later today.

After the frenetic & frantic action on Tuesday, NO bets completed yesterday, & we only placed 2 small bets, totalling £35, both of which will settle in September's account.

We missed two bets, unintentionally, but both turned out to be losers. Run good ftw. One ended comically, when Chompy's proposed double (would have) busted in Leg One, only for Leg Two, tipped up at 7/2, to scoot home @ 5/1 after his Chomnpness told us to swerve it. Marv. One day we'll get the right side of these horses. 

We debated the Newcastle - Villa match at length, sentiment seems to be suggesting that the price is, at best, bang on, at worst, too short. Decision still to be made on this, perhaps after they play their Europa League jobbie tonight. The game is not until Sunday.

The first was a Golf Banzai, Brandon Grace (£10 EW @ 50/1) in the Omega Masters, which starts today. You can watch the Omega Masters on Sky Sports.....

In the other bet, Tighty took leave of his considerable senses & stuck up a F1 Bet. We have yet to have a successful F1 bet in eight attempts.

Our Cycling chap, as expected, had his lead pegged back, & now leads Contador by 1 second, & Froome by 15 seconds. Tonji & Longy both warned us to expect this, as the Stage did not favour our man's skills.

http://www.lavuelta.com/

In the US Open Tennis, our young lady, Venus Williams (£20 @ 69/1) did not play, so far as I can see. She is currently 33/1, & it may be that we look at greening at some stage. For now, the bet rides.

So, not much action. We talked a lot, though......good stuff it was, too.

[tikay]

Whats coming up?

The Cycling & US Open continue.

The Paralympics begin today. Only two markets seem to be up so far, one of which is on "How many medals will Great Britain win?". The line seems to be around 51.

http://www.oddschecker.com/paralympics/great-britain-paralympic-specials/total-gold-medals

Athletics returns to the TV screens tonight, via the Diamond League Meet in Zurich, & has a star-studded cast, including one U Bolt, available for the 200 metres @ 1/41, & the same price is available for Rudisha in the 800 metres.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/athletics

League Cup Football returns to TV too, with Northampton entertaining Wolves @ Sixfields. Wolves are 5/4 best to avoid what looks like a banana-skin job, with the home side @ a tempting 5/2. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/northampton-v-wolverhampton/winner

Newcastle United can be viewed on ITV4, as they play their 2nd Leg Europa League game at home to Atromitos from Greece. Might be worth a watch to see how Newcastle shape up. This ought to be a high scoring affair, & judging by the market, it will be a surprise if the Greeks get any of them.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/newcastle-v-atromitos/winner

Liverpool are also in Europa League action, at home, v Hearts. The hosts are as short as 1/5, with the visitors available @ 16/1.......

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/liverpool-v-hearts/winner


Todays highlight must be this chap though.

Click to see full-size image.

 

[Tal]

David Rudisha runs indeed. The 800m sensation. Just 23 years old and Rudisha holds the three fastest, six of the eight fastest, and half of the twenty fastest times ever for two laps of the track.

[TightEnd]

The Ipswich match

- Are Ipswich really the odds on shot they need to be to make 6/5 value?

- Huddersfield are a very efficient and workmanlike side. Saw them first game of the season, minus Rhodes, at Cardiff and you could not wish for a team that would battle more, play for each other and be more organised.

- Ipswich we know are wildly inconsistent.

- Taylor and Boyd have turned down moves there after not agreeing personal terms

I know we want to be contrarian and back a team like Ipswich after they've been gubbed but Huddersfield wouldn't be the team I would be wanting Ipswich to play this weekend. Losing Rhodes is a punters fallacy, Grayson's been expecting this for ages and has the team set up without him.

[tikay]

David Rudisha runs indeed. The 800m sensation. Just 23 years old and Rudisha holds the three fastest, six of the eight fastest, and half of the twenty fastest times ever for two laps of the track.

Bugger, edited now, that is the problem with rudhing.

We really ought to watch him tonight though, phenoms are far & few between.

Wiki said this, & it really is extraordinary..........


According to the IAAF: "With Rudisha breaking 1:41, two men under 1:42, five under 1:43 and all eight under 1:44, it was the greatest depth 800m race in history. Every single man ran the fastest ever time for their placing in history. There were eight season's bests set in the race, as well as seven personal bests, one national junior record, three national records, the world junior record, the Olympic record, and the world record. It was the first time in 800m history where every competitor ran either a personal or season's best. Rudisha's world record is the more notable for the absence of pacemakers to assist him, the latter not being permitted at the Olympics and other major championships. Its difficulty is underlined by the fact that the last person to win a championship 800m final with a world record was Alberto Juantorena, back in the 1976 Olympics.

Sebastian Coe, organiser of the London Olympics, said: "It was the performance of the Games, not just of track and field but of the Games". He added: "Bolt was good, Rudisha was magnificent. That is quite a big call but it was the most extraordinary piece of running I have probably ever seen."

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Think it's a strong portfolio tonight Tikay.  Good luck to thread.

This is by far my favourite thread on any internet forum by the way.  Some knowledgable thoughts on here - not like the dross posted up most of the time on betfair which have no reasoning.  Not sure who started the concept - but well done that man!

Dung

Morning Dung.

The thread was the idea of, & started, by Camel, who I have known for a good many years, pre-blonde in fact.

He knew that I had stopped punting when I began playing poker, & thought he could tease me out of punting retirement. No chance, Sirree, no chance.

Glad you enjoy the thread.

[DungBeetle]

A couple of away teams catch my eye on the coupon so I'll stick them up for consideration.

Ipswich v HuddersfieldIpswich are a bit of a hot and cold team, but must have had their confidence dented after losing 6-0 at Blackpool.  I don't know what team they fielded in losing to Carlisle in the cup, so not sure if that has relevence but a confident newly promoted team at home doesn't seem the ideal fixture to bounce back from the Blackpool mauling.

I've been looking to get with Huddersfield after watching them at Cardiff on the very first game of the season.  They lost that game, but outplayed their fancied hosts for long periods, missing a host of chances (the cardiff keeper was man of the match) before making the mistake of shutting up shop with 20 mins to go and getting deeper and deeper and conceding in injury time.  Since that game they have drawn at home to Forest (who have looked really strong so far) and beat Burnley last time out.  I think their confidence will be high so I don't think a trip to Ipswich will hold many fears.  Not sure if Rhodes will play or not, but it seems clear that when he has started he has not been distracted by transfer talk.

Recommendation:  2 points on Huddersfield to beat Ipswich at 5/2 or better.

[redsimon]

A couple of away teams catch my eye on the coupon so I'll stick them up for consideration.

Ipswich v HuddersfieldIpswich are a bit of a hot and cold team, but must have had their confidence dented after losing 6-0 at Blackpool.  I don't know what team they fielded in losing to Carlisle in the cup, so not sure if that has relevence but a confident newly promoted team at home doesn't seem the ideal fixture to bounce back from the Blackpool mauling.

I've been looking to get with Huddersfield after watching them at Cardiff on the very first game of the season.  They lost that game, but outplayed their fancied hosts for long periods, missing a host of chances (the cardiff keeper was man of the match) before making the mistake of shutting up shop with 20 mins to go and getting deeper and deeper and conceding in injury time.  Since that game they have drawn at home to Forest (who have looked really strong so far) and beat Burnley last time out.  I think their confidence will be high so I don't think a trip to Ipswich will hold many fears.  Not sure if Rhodes will play or not, but it seems clear that when he has started he has not been distracted by transfer talk.

Recommendation:  2 points on Huddersfield to beat Ipswich at 5/2 or better.

This is good reasoning. Thought Huddersfield played lots better without Rhodes @ Cardiff than with him vs Forest. Has Rhodes definitely gone?

[DungBeetle]

Port Vale v Torquay

Port Vale have started above expectations with 6 points on the board, but on paper they have had pretty easy fixtures.  Barnet, Accrington and Morcombe, all of whom are expected to finish in the bottom sector of the league.  Torquay have 5 points, but from a far harder set of fixtures - they drew at Fleetwood before a home draw with last season's play off finalists Cheltenham and then beating relegated Rochdale last time out.

I expected with home advantage to Vale that this would be priced as a coin toss match (bearing in mind the spread firms still think Torquay will finish a good 6 points above Vale over the season) , but it seems the bookies may have over-reacted to a couple of Port Vale victories against mediocre opposition and thus Torquay may well be value at a shade over 9/4.

Recommendation:  2 points on Torquay to beat Port Vale at 9/4 or better

[DungBeetle]

"Has Rhodes definitely gone?"

I'm not sure.  There seems to be rumours he is gone before each match but he seems to give his all when selected.

I've seen above there are people wanting to get with Ipswich so maybe this match is best left alone if it splits opinion.

[The Camel]

How do you see  Ipswich at 6/5 v Huddersfiled guys with Rhodes joining Blackburn?

One of my favourite situation plays is when a team I rate pretty highly, with a manager I think is excellent lose their star player - whether in the transfer market or to long term injury.

While long term they are clearly going to be significantly weaker, in the short term I feel the managers input and team spirit often leads to a short term boost in performances as players strive to improve personal performances to cover for the loss of their star man.

I like Huddersfield/Grayson alot and think they fit this spot perfectly.

If Ipswich are going to be supported in the market, I want to get with the Terriers.

[horseplayer]

How do you see  Ipswich at 6/5 v Huddersfiled guys with Rhodes joining Blackburn?

One of my favourite situation plays is when a team I rate pretty highly, with a manager I think is excellent lose their star player - whether in the transfer market or to long term injury.

While long term they are clearly going to be significantly weaker, in the short term I feel the managers input and team spirit often leads to a short term boost in performances as players strive to improve personal performances to cover for the loss of their star man.

I like Huddersfield/Grayson alot and think they fit this spot perfectly.

If Ipswich are going to be supported in the market, I want to get with the Terriers.

agreed

grayson is basically very good and will have known rhodes will be leaving for a while and adjusting accordingly

[class]

Hi there, As stated previously, I am a lurker on this thread purely because I am a 'mug punter' and want to change that. Therefore I can offer little in the way of tips with any sound footing, other than those around Southend United.

The Southend United is Paul Sturrock, who in League 2, (wrongly) believes the only way out of the division is to utilise direct play to a lump up front, none of this short passes malarkey. At this current moment, the two players who play this role, are injured. After Saturdays game against Northampton, Paul Sturrock said the following:-

You have to have a target-man if you want to do well in this league,” said Sturrock.

“You saw that when Ryan went up there and also when Akinfenwa came on for Northampton.

“We don't have that type of striker available at the moment and we have to have one if we are to challenge this year

Sturrock has tried to sign a target man this week, to no avail. (No funds and possible transfer embargo currently). Therefore, the man who robbed you lot on Saturday of a Northampton win, will in my opinion start up front this Saturday. He is a centre back called Ryan Cresswell. This is by all means a guess, but Sturrock has previous for this kind of thing

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/southend-v-wycombe/first-goalscorer

I suggest a cheeky £5 on say first goalscorer and last goalscorer, as the bookies have him down as 'centre back odds', and even if he doesn't start up front, he is good at set pieces, and will get pushed up front at the dying stages of a game if a goal is needed.....