Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

I don't have a massive view either way on the Newcastle bet but we all know Newcastle are good and we all know Villa are bad and have problems.  I don't really understand what we are seeing here to make it a bet that isn't in plain view for the odds compilers. If anything the fact that Newcastle might lose a couple of players before tomorrow night would tip it the other way.  If we hark back into the thread to Neil Channings really good post about the criteria something needs to pass to be a bet then the only thing it could pass on is that we are pricing more accurately than the odds compilers and that is always the worst of the criteria as it is so subjective.

[tikay]

Last two races @ Kempton tomorrow, Paddy Wankers have overpriced the jolly in each race imo.

Mizwaaj @ 11/4 and Storm King 7/2.

Gonna suggest a filthy £25 each-way double @ those prices.

Thanks Mr Fifteen to One.

We would have done these as two singles, £25 each, but with the sheer volume of Fred activity yesterday, I missed them, sorry.

Current prices - proving your case - are 6/4 & 3/1, so too late now, I would suggest?

Which also neatly proves today's discussion points on horse racing & prices, too.

One result of today's debate is that we MAY be doing more horse racing bets soon, so dont be doing your trademark flounce on me, or I'll grass you up to Car Park Henderson, who, it seems to me, owns you in these exchanges.

This has now changed a little. The first one is still only 13/8, so way too late to back, but I can now get 7/2 about the second one, Storm King.

I'll back that as a single nearer the time unless anyone suggests otherwise. We have an hour or more yet to decide. 

One more question - you suggested (as a Double) each way, but as a single @ 7/2, it has to be win only, I assume?

Swerve.

Each-way double down unless Paddies are paying first nine places on Mizwaaj.

Lol, noted!

Be right, I swerve good. Saved a few bob there.

You not want the single on Storm King in the 8.50 then?

[tikay]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00z8v18

Not currently scheduled for a rerun but this was an amazing insight into 1960's and 1970's Grand Prix racing "Grand Prix: The Killer Years"

Thanks Simon, I'll enjoy that later tonight. The Golden Years of F1, but oh my, so tragically dangerous.

[tikay]

I don't have a massive view either way on the Newcastle bet but we all know Newcastle are good and we all know Villa are bad and have problems.  I don't really understand what we are seeing here to make it a bet that isn't in plain view for the odds compilers. If anything the fact that Newcastle might lose a couple of players before tomorrow night would tip it the other way.  If we hark back into the thread to Neil Channings really good post about the criteria something needs to pass to be a bet then the only thing it could pass on is that we are pricing more accurately than the odds compilers and that is always the worst of the criteria as it is so subjective.

Thanks Reds, adding to Brent's comment.

It seems "quite close" all things considered.

We don't need to rush into this either, the game is 4 days away, & the worst that can happen after Newcastle's Thursday match, & transfer Deadline stuff, is that the price lengthens.

I quite like Newcastle's chances, but judging the "value" is beyond me.

[tikay]

I don't have a massive view either way on the Newcastle bet but we all know Newcastle are good and we all know Villa are bad and have problems.  I don't really understand what we are seeing here to make it a bet that isn't in plain view for the odds compilers. If anything the fact that Newcastle might lose a couple of players before tomorrow night would tip it the other way. If we hark back into the thread to Neil Channings really good post about the criteria something needs to pass to be a bet then the only thing it could pass on is that we are pricing more accurately than the odds compilers and that is always the worst of the criteria as it is so subjective.

Worth consideration, too.

[tikay]

Last two races @ Kempton tomorrow, Paddy Wankers have overpriced the jolly in each race imo.

Mizwaaj @ 11/4 and Storm King 7/2.

Gonna suggest a filthy £25 each-way double @ those prices.

Thanks Mr Fifteen to One.

We would have done these as two singles, £25 each, but with the sheer volume of Fred activity yesterday, I missed them, sorry.

Current prices - proving your case - are 6/4 & 3/1, so too late now, I would suggest?

Which also neatly proves today's discussion points on horse racing & prices, too.

One result of today's debate is that we MAY be doing more horse racing bets soon, so dont be doing your trademark flounce on me, or I'll grass you up to Car Park Henderson, who, it seems to me, owns you in these exchanges.

This has now changed a little. The first one is still only 13/8, so way too late to back, but I can now get 7/2 about the second one, Storm King.

I'll back that as a single nearer the time unless anyone suggests otherwise. We have an hour or more yet to decide. 

One more question - you suggested (as a Double) each way, but as a single @ 7/2, it has to be win only, I assume?

Swerve.

Each-way double down unless Paddies are paying first nine places on Mizwaaj.

Lol, noted!

Be right, I swerve good. Saved a few bob there.

You not want the single on Storm King in the 8.50 then?

Storm King been drifting terribly for 20 minutes, 11/2 third fave now.
 
Have binned it on those grounds. Watch it cruise home now......

[The Camel]

Last two races @ Kempton tomorrow, Paddy Wankers have overpriced the jolly in each race imo.

Mizwaaj @ 11/4 and Storm King 7/2.

Gonna suggest a filthy £25 each-way double @ those prices.

Thanks Mr Fifteen to One.

We would have done these as two singles, £25 each, but with the sheer volume of Fred activity yesterday, I missed them, sorry.

Current prices - proving your case - are 6/4 & 3/1, so too late now, I would suggest?

Which also neatly proves today's discussion points on horse racing & prices, too.

One result of today's debate is that we MAY be doing more horse racing bets soon, so dont be doing your trademark flounce on me, or I'll grass you up to Car Park Henderson, who, it seems to me, owns you in these exchanges.

This has now changed a little. The first one is still only 13/8, so way too late to back, but I can now get 7/2 about the second one, Storm King.

I'll back that as a single nearer the time unless anyone suggests otherwise. We have an hour or more yet to decide. 

One more question - you suggested (as a Double) each way, but as a single @ 7/2, it has to be win only, I assume?

Swerve.

Each-way double down unless Paddies are paying first nine places on Mizwaaj.

Storm King dots up.

Chompy is the man.

[horseplayer]

wins like a good thing

well done chompy

[nirvana]

Been making a good living laying all Chompy's tips but backed this one cause Chompy sayed 'swerve'.

Great that it drifted (lolol) on at 5's

Aftertime much :-)

[tikay]

Wowzer!

General Fred advice however is try & get on at a price better than SP, as we have discussed all day today, & this one was recommended (as part of a double) @ 7/2, would it have been wise to back it as a single when it drifted so? It went off @ 5/1 eventually.

PS - Bugger.

PPS - Well done Chomps.

[nirvana]

Wowzer!

General Fred advice however is try & get on at a price better than SP, as we have discussed all day today, & this one was recommended (as part of a double) @ 7/2, would it have been wise to back it as a single when it drifted so? It went off @ 5/1 eventually.

PS - Bugger.

PPS - Well done Chomps.

Definitely unwise but in terms of ripping Chompy - priceless

[tikay]

Been making a good living laying all Chompy's tips but backed this one cause Chompy sayed 'swerve'.

Great that it drifted (lolol) on at 5's

Aftertime much :-)

Lol, I'm jealous. I had my finger poised for an off-thread job but when it drifted so, I thought I'd be sensible.

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

The BadBeat Model is far and away the most sensible way forward for genuine bets. If Fred wants "cheeky" (that's for the Ar$£nal comment!) bets for a bit of fun, that's good too IMO but it should be done in the knowledge that it is placed for that reason.

Bigger bets should reflect Fred's confidence that he is "beating the odds". That makes sense even to a rank amateur such as like what I is.

[TightEnd]

Is there a column on the spreadsheet for Chompy putting us off backing his own prior tips?

If so, make it public view please :-)

[tikay]

Is there a column on the spreadsheet for Chompy putting us off backing his own prior tips?

If so, make it public view please :-)

Incred.

"Shall I back it as a single, Lord Chomps?"

"No".