Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Might be time to get on Watford in 2 weeks time after the international break chaps.  Perverse as it seems as they got beat 5-1 today, but hardly any of the new guys started and it will be a new team at Bolton, with 2 weeks on the training ground to prepare.  Bolton themselves look poor, and I'm hopeful of getting 5/1 on the away win, and that would seem value on what is a completely new team which might or might not fire against out of form opposition.  Will re-post nearer the time.

My 2 picks came in draws today.  Hate the draws

Which reminds me today.

Did you really say yesterday that Watford have a 39 (THIRTY NINE) player squad?

WTF?!

Where does the money come from, that is insane!

Is Barry Fry the Manager?

[horseplayer]

Might be time to get on Watford in 2 weeks time after the international break chaps.  Perverse as it seems as they got beat 5-1 today, but hardly any of the new guys started and it will be a new team at Bolton, with 2 weeks on the training ground to prepare.  Bolton themselves look poor, and I'm hopeful of getting 5/1 on the away win, and that would seem value on what is a completely new team which might or might not fire against out of form opposition.  Will re-post nearer the time.

My 2 picks came in draws today.  Hate the draws

Which reminds me today.

Did you really say yesterday that Watford have a 39 (THIRTY NINE) player squad?

WTF?!

Where does the money come from, that is insane!

Is Barry Fry the Manager?

a fair amount are on loan from the owners other clubs udinese and grenada.

To be fair the owners seem to have attracted a very negative press in this country already, you couldnt really wish to look for a better run european club than udinese and grenada have followed suit. Very much long term owners.

[Nico29]

I've been looking for an angle in the Man City&QPR match which is a 530pm kick of.

After watching the first two games of the season I'd like to oppose QPR in some way until all the new signings have gelled and they learn to defend better as a team.

I felt for Norwich last week feeling they were most unlucky not to take all 3 points, but whether or not that was due to the home side playing well or the hoops appearing woeful is debatable.

Norwich created numerous chances, and possibly were on the wrong side of a decision or two whilst obviously the first week's demolition by Swansea didn't do wonders for QPR'S confidence either.

They have been seemingly desperate to recruit a quality centre half but haven't. Two games played and there have been 7 goals in their games. Last season's finale was a totally different scenario but both games finished 3-2 to Man City in 2011/2012.

Man City defensively haven't convinced themselves either so far, with Mancini supposedly unsure whether to go with 2/3 centre backs and there's uncertainty about the full backs. In addition Toure hasn't looked his old self for yonks yet Lescott was benched last week. They've let in 4 scoring 5 themselves leading to 9 goals in their two games so far.

Obviously this is the smallest of sample sizes and thus a pinch of salt should be taken from these goal 'stats'.

However, everything does seem to indicate goals in this match, Tevez is firing again, Cisse often scores or gets sent off-which could lead to the alamo and right now most of the QPR backline don't seem confident enough to hold out against the champs inevitable flurry upon flurry on goal. Man City also look a little fragile at the back.

It all leads me to believe that the overs market should be looked into and I expected to see the over 3.5 market perhaps a slight favourite to the unders, maybe a 5/6-10//11 shot.

Instead we can get 11/10 with ladbrokes +3.5 goals and that seems very fair to me. Most firms are around evens.

I've also played on the +4.5 goal market with Sportingbet@12/5 for a smaller amount and have done a few banzai jobbers on the higher goal totals for relative pennies.

My recomended bet is +3.5 goals in the Man City QPR match @11/10 with ladbrokes-it's found under handicaps and the goal line market.

I believe it's a fair value bet perhaps worthy a nifty.

Any thoughts on the overs in this match?

Thanks Dom.

The analysis looks very good, hard to quibble, but we collectively decided, at about midday today, after 4 or 5 said the same thing, that we'd swerve the football today, as we were unable to find any real value.

Hope it gets home for you though, the game looks goal heavy. 

No worries, was more interested in if ppl thought it was value or a daft punt if im honest.

Not that I wldnt like to rec winners for this thread of course, glad to hear you think there are goals in the game.

Time to sit back and watch the nil nil draw then!

[DungBeetle]

Tikay - they are owned by the guy who owns Udinese and Granada.  So all the players are on 1/2/3 year long longs from those 2 clubs for free with no wages.  If Watford go up they will be retained if not they will start with a fresh batch next year.  They are international loans, so the UK classes them as permanent transfers.

I'm in 2 minds how I feel.  On the one hand we have a first team squad which is worth about £20 million which I would never have dreamed about before.  But on the other hand it takes ages for so many players to gel into a new system, and if they do really well then Udinese will take them back and we lose a bit of the identity of the club.

However, if this takeover hadn't happened we were in administration so I'm happy to give it the benefit of the doubt and I have to admit it is quite exciting after watching a bunch of journeymen the last few years!

The real test of how it works will be after the international break when all new guys are ready for selection, so that's why it might be worth taking Watford at a few fancy prices before the bookies size them up.

[ripple11]

Sussex go from 159-1 to 200-8 after 37 overs....and imploding.  

.....this is going to be a sweat!

if only!

Sussex were looking good things at 1/4  in running ....but their batting collapse saw them about 50 runs short.

 Hants came out and batted brilliantly, and coasted it with ease.

Not Freds day at the cricket.

[tikay]

Tikay - they are owned by the guy who owns Udinese and Granada.  So all the players are on 1/2/3 year long longs from those 2 clubs for free with no wages.  If Watford go up they will be retained if not they will start with a fresh batch next year.  They are international loans, so the UK classes them as permanent transfers.

I'm in 2 minds how I feel.  On the one hand we have a first team squad which is worth about £20 million which I would never have dreamed about before.  But on the other hand it takes ages for so many players to gel into a new system, and if they do really well then Udinese will take them back and we lose a bit of the identity of the club.

However, if this takeover hadn't happened we were in administration so I'm happy to give it the benefit of the doubt and I have to admit it is quite exciting after watching a bunch of journeymen the last few years!

The real test of how it works will be after the international break when all new guys are ready for selection, so that's why it might be worth taking Watford at a few fancy prices before the bookies size them up.

Ahh, thnk, that makes MUCH more sense, ditto the reply by Falcoa Man.

[tikay]

Sussex go from 159-1 to 200-8 after 37 overs....and imploding.  

.....this is going to be a sweat!

if only!

Sussex were looking good things at 1/4  in running ....but their batting collapse saw them about 50 runs short.

 Hants came out and batted brilliantly, and coasted it with ease.

Not Freds day at the cricket.

Unlucky Nick, it happens.

At 159/1 I was already counting our winnings........

Fred is visiting -ev land today.

[DungBeetle]

Potential line up v Bolton - I admit many I hadn't heard of but when I wiki'd the 4 or 5 are full internationals or former internationals and the others have all been transferred for millions as teenagers (except captian Eustace of course!)

Almuina

Casetti
Neuton
Ekland
Pudil

Battochio
Eustace
Abdi

Vydra
Bia/Forestieri
Geijo

[aaron1867]

Fred decided to swerve and missed out on both my tips and possible other one coming in too, but probably agree with the swerve as apart from the ones I posted, I generally thought it was a day to swerve, with no great information or possible value.

West Ham did win 3-0 against Fulham, whilst MK also eased past Carlisle 2-0. Even one I wanted views on (Forest), got past Charlton.

Fortunately or unfortunately for me I got on some of these and made a decent profit, but all was spoiled by a 1/4 Celtic side who could not get past Hibs at home.

[Tonji]

Another brilliant stage of the Vuelta and Fred's man Rodriguez wins again.

Starting to look good for him. Contador made a really big attack with 2km to go and Rodriguez slowly hauled him back, then took him over in the last few 100ms. This really should be Contador terriotry with the longer climbs sapping Rodriguez's explosive finish but it is not happening.

Froome looks done, finished 5th(?) i think about 35s down. Valverde still just about in it. Excellent tip Tonij!

One fear I have. An old adage in Grand Tours "everyone will have a bad day in the mountains"

Rodrigeuz has yet to have a bad day.

Now pretty much, a two horse race with still three mountain stages to negotiate before Madrid finish on Sunday the 9th.

[Teacake]

Fred decided to swerve and missed out on both my tips and possible other one coming in too, but probably agree with the swerve as apart from the ones I posted, I generally thought it was a day to swerve, with no great information or possible value.

West Ham did win 3-0 against Fulham, whilst MK also eased past Carlisle 2-0. Even one I wanted views on (Forest), got past Charlton.

Fortunately or unfortunately for me I got on some of these and made a decent profit, but all was spoiled by a 1/4 Celtic side who could not get past Hibs at home.

Was there a particular point you were trying to make here?

[Snowball]

Bad news from Galway, Connaght lose 9-13 to Cardiff.

[DungBeetle]

Good call from Tighty so far in swerving Blackpool as Leicester seem to be doing the business.

[tikay]

Bad news from Galway, Connaght lose 9-13 to Cardiff.

Bugger.

[tikay]

Good call from Tighty so far in swerving Blackpool as Leicester seem to be doing the business.

Agreed, Tighty has the inside line on Leicester I think.