Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

eeeek!!!


Corner taken by Kevan Hurst, Britt Assombalonga finds the back of the net with a headed goal from deep inside the penalty area. Southend 1-0 Wycombe.Assist on the goal came from Ryan Cresswell. Inswinging corner taken left-footed by Kevan Hurst from the left by-line, save by Nikki Bull.

[hector62]

Mr Mere.

I think my request will be too much of a pain but maybe your spreadsheet can more easily do it than my calculator. Someone made a comment the other day about bet sizing and how they felt they should be bigger. As a self proclaimed nit and definitely one of the smallest bet sizers I was interested in this. I decided to see how we would have done if all the bets were for £100. I managed to do it for the first month and was shocked by the result, and by how long it took me to do.

If anyone is interested then for the month of February where we made a profit of £120, if all bets had been £100 then we would have lost over £1,700. Do not worry if it would take you too long as life is too short etc.

By my figures, level stakes of £100 would have produced the following profits/losses:

Feb   94.27
Mar   1001.70
Apr   1088.72
May   -3206.39
Jun   -1410.69
Jul   -426.08
Aug   -433.51

Total:  -3291.98

I'm happy to be corrected.

It was me that raised the point regards bet sizes.  I never suggested betting everything to a £100 point.  

I was suggesting that there would have been a better return had those those who were making selections had to coin a phrase bigger balls and suggested the bet size was realistic in terms of the odds then the book would look even healthier.

It was not my intention to belittle anyone, I think many people look at the money as if it belongs to them and not Tikay.  Again no offence meant but this was seen clearly when Mere was in the driving seat.  He curtailed the exposure slightly because it wasn't his own money.  I understand you don't want to lose money for other people but we are all adults.  If your putting up a rec then either put up a sum considerable to the roll or leave the bet sizing to Tikay.  

Perhaps using the "elders" as Tony often refers to them as the deciding ones on bet sizing?

I am king of the nits and I didn't feel belittled in the slightest, I just thought it threw up an interesting proposal to mull over.

[RickBFA]

I don't like alot in the football today.

I think AFC Wimbledon are value at 17/10 against Dag & Red.

AFC Wimbledon have been poor away from home but a different story at home.

Dag & Red have scored one goal in their last 4 games.

Get other views - I'd recommend £25 at 17/10 - it should be shorter for me.

AFC Wimbledon are terrible. I have opposed them every game this year based on a very poor pre-season as advised by, I think, from a twitter post from the genius (lol) that is Brent Horner - if it wasn't Brent it was someone else shrewd.

They may we well do a win, however for me that games is a clear no bet until they show some form

I'm not suggesting Wimbledon are world beaters, clearly they are not but they have won their last 3 home games. But I believe 17/10 is/was value.

It's all relative - they are playing a really poor Dag & Red side, who are struggling.

I priced Wimbledon at 13/10 not 17/10.

[Tonji]

Immense ride by "Purito" Rodriguez. Looking like a champ, crushes Contador at the finish. 

[Longy]

Another brilliant stage of the Vuelta and Fred's man Rodriguez wins again.

Starting to look good for him. Contador made a really big attack with 2km to go and Rodriguez slowly hauled him back, then took him over in the last few 100ms. This really should be Contador terriotry with the longer climbs sapping Rodriguez's explosive finish but it is not happening.

Froome looks done, finished 5th(?) i think about 35s down. Valverde still just about in it. Excellent tip Tonij!

[The Camel]

Swansea seem like a really good lay at 2.06 to me.

[Nico29]

I've been looking for an angle in the Man City&QPR match which is a 530pm kick of.

After watching the first two games of the season I'd like to oppose QPR in some way until all the new signings have gelled and they learn to defend better as a team.

I felt for Norwich last week feeling they were most unlucky not to take all 3 points, but whether or not that was due to the home side playing well or the hoops appearing woeful is debatable.

Norwich created numerous chances, and possibly were on the wrong side of a decision or two whilst obviously the first week's demolition by Swansea didn't do wonders for QPR'S confidence either.

They have been seemingly desperate to recruit a quality centre half but haven't. Two games played and there have been 7 goals in their games. Last season's finale was a totally different scenario but both games finished 3-2 to Man City in 2011/2012.

Man City defensively haven't convinced themselves either so far, with Mancini supposedly unsure whether to go with 2/3 centre backs and there's uncertainty about the full backs. In addition Toure hasn't looked his old self for yonks yet Lescott was benched last week. They've let in 4 scoring 5 themselves leading to 9 goals in their two games so far.

Obviously this is the smallest of sample sizes and thus a pinch of salt should be taken from these goal 'stats'.

However, everything does seem to indicate goals in this match, Tevez is firing again, Cisse often scores or gets sent off-which could lead to the alamo and right now most of the QPR backline don't seem confident enough to hold out against the champs inevitable flurry upon flurry on goal. Man City also look a little fragile at the back.

It all leads me to believe that the overs market should be looked into and I expected to see the over 3.5 market perhaps a slight favourite to the unders, maybe a 5/6-10//11 shot.

Instead we can get 11/10 with ladbrokes +3.5 goals and that seems very fair to me. Most firms are around evens.

I've also played on the +4.5 goal market with Sportingbet@12/5 for a smaller amount and have done a few banzai jobbers on the higher goal totals for relative pennies.

My recomended bet is +3.5 goals in the Man City QPR match @11/10 with ladbrokes-it's found under handicaps and the goal line market.

I believe it's a fair value bet perhaps worthy a nifty.

Any thoughts on the overs in this match?

[tikay]

Swansea seem like a really good lay at 2.06 to me.

Lol, good spot Keith.

Some of today's results in the Premier League were a touch difficult to predict.

[rfgqqabc]

As an aside, York vs Oxford. Bluesq are 10/11 both teams to score. This is too big, Spin have a goal line of 2.55 and a supremacy 0.1-0.3. Barnsley vs Bristol City have a goal line of 2.55 and a supremacy of -0.1-0.1 and are 4/5 best price both teams to score. Imo, despite the difference in supremacy, Bluesq price in the York game is still slightly too big. I'd expect it to go off at atleast 4/5. Stan are 4/5 stand out best in the Barnsley game, the rest of the firms 4/6 or 8/11.

Reccomend £44 @ 10/11 Bluesq, Both teams to score in the York Oxford game

Won in the first half, got missed in all the spam. Still not 100% sure on if it was value, about as close as it can get, still working on BTTS model

[AceHighSuited]

Spurs cost me dearly.  I normally make a point of not backing either them or Everton early season but for some unknown reason I stuck them in a few accumulators.  Smallish stuff but they had a nice return. 

[Tal]

Spurs cost me dearly.  I normally make a point of not backing either them or Everton early season but for some unknown reason I stuck them in a few accumulators.  Smallish stuff but they had a nice return. 

I have been looking for someone to blame irrationally. Thanks

[DungBeetle]

Swansea seem like a really good lay at 2.06 to me.

Well done Camel.   Looks like Sunderland played really well for long periods.

[tikay]

I've been looking for an angle in the Man City&QPR match which is a 530pm kick of.

After watching the first two games of the season I'd like to oppose QPR in some way until all the new signings have gelled and they learn to defend better as a team.

I felt for Norwich last week feeling they were most unlucky not to take all 3 points, but whether or not that was due to the home side playing well or the hoops appearing woeful is debatable.

Norwich created numerous chances, and possibly were on the wrong side of a decision or two whilst obviously the first week's demolition by Swansea didn't do wonders for QPR'S confidence either.

They have been seemingly desperate to recruit a quality centre half but haven't. Two games played and there have been 7 goals in their games. Last season's finale was a totally different scenario but both games finished 3-2 to Man City in 2011/2012.

Man City defensively haven't convinced themselves either so far, with Mancini supposedly unsure whether to go with 2/3 centre backs and there's uncertainty about the full backs. In addition Toure hasn't looked his old self for yonks yet Lescott was benched last week. They've let in 4 scoring 5 themselves leading to 9 goals in their two games so far.

Obviously this is the smallest of sample sizes and thus a pinch of salt should be taken from these goal 'stats'.

However, everything does seem to indicate goals in this match, Tevez is firing again, Cisse often scores or gets sent off-which could lead to the alamo and right now most of the QPR backline don't seem confident enough to hold out against the champs inevitable flurry upon flurry on goal. Man City also look a little fragile at the back.

It all leads me to believe that the overs market should be looked into and I expected to see the over 3.5 market perhaps a slight favourite to the unders, maybe a 5/6-10//11 shot.

Instead we can get 11/10 with ladbrokes +3.5 goals and that seems very fair to me. Most firms are around evens.

I've also played on the +4.5 goal market with Sportingbet@12/5 for a smaller amount and have done a few banzai jobbers on the higher goal totals for relative pennies.

My recomended bet is +3.5 goals in the Man City QPR match @11/10 with ladbrokes-it's found under handicaps and the goal line market.

I believe it's a fair value bet perhaps worthy a nifty.

Any thoughts on the overs in this match?

Thanks Dom.

The analysis looks very good, hard to quibble, but we collectively decided, at about midday today, after 4 or 5 said the same thing, that we'd swerve the football today, as we were unable to find any real value.

Hope it gets home for you though, the game looks goal heavy. 

[DungBeetle]

Might be time to get on Watford in 2 weeks time after the international break chaps.  Perverse as it seems as they got beat 5-1 today, but hardly any of the new guys started and it will be a new team at Bolton, with 2 weeks on the training ground to prepare.  Bolton themselves look poor, and I'm hopeful of getting 5/1 on the away win, and that would seem value on what is a completely new team which might or might not fire against out of form opposition.  Will re-post nearer the time.

My 2 picks came in draws today.  Hate the draws

[tikay]

As an aside, York vs Oxford. Bluesq are 10/11 both teams to score. This is too big, Spin have a goal line of 2.55 and a supremacy 0.1-0.3. Barnsley vs Bristol City have a goal line of 2.55 and a supremacy of -0.1-0.1 and are 4/5 best price both teams to score. Imo, despite the difference in supremacy, Bluesq price in the York game is still slightly too big. I'd expect it to go off at atleast 4/5. Stan are 4/5 stand out best in the Barnsley game, the rest of the firms 4/6 or 8/11.

Reccomend £44 @ 10/11 Bluesq, Both teams to score in the York Oxford game

Won in the first half, got missed in all the spam. Still not 100% sure on if it was value, about as close as it can get, still working on BTTS model

I actually saw that yesterday, & thought it looked interesting. Then plum forgot it. Sorry!

Had I remembered, I would have added it to those Posts where I listed the "Recommends" for comment.