Tips for Tikay

[smashedagain]

thank you

thread moves too quickly!

Nice to be up after seven months, and still plenty of fun

very much this. Not read for 36 hours and had to go back 10 pages.

Great read tho

[Tonji]

Today in the Vuelta. More cycling up & down.

Click to see full-size image.

A Sky rider crashes, gets run over by a motorbike, & carrys on!

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Not much at all today, though the Deutsche Bank Golf finishes tonight, with the top 4 at present being Oosty, Rory, Tiger & Dustin J.

Oosty is 8/13, Rory 2/1, Tiger 16 & Dustin 25/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/deutsche-bank-championship/winner/all

No "Monday Night Football" tonight, due to the International break.

On a personal note, very special birthday wishes today to Phil, aka "Bobby1".

I can't begin to tell you what a good friend he has been, & is, to me & others.

We hooked up back in 2004, when he was at William Hill, he was the first to spot, & sign up, Thewy, & that worked out pretty good, with Golden Bollox winning a bunch of stuff including an EPT whilst wearing the WH patch. Not all his signings worked out quite so well though - he orchestrated my unlikely role in televised poker with "Poker 425", & we travelled all over Europe & even Vegas with that Show. Later, I got other tv related work, & I'm still getting away with it, though perhaps not for much longer. So blame him, not me. 

These days, he is a sort of personal mentor for my freshly rejuvenated degen betting stuff, & he has helped me more than I can ever explain here, giving me winner after winner, at big prices too. That story will have to wait a while though.....

Whilst at WH, he ran the WH Grand Prix, too, in which I got the job of organising the land-based satellites, in the UK & Dublin. Huge fun, though not so much one particular night when the money for the rebuys all disappeared & we found ourselves in a bit of a dodgy spot.....

For the televised stuff in Cardiff, he invited a bunch of blondes down, gave them full Hospitality access, & they had a right good time.

He sought my counsel for the Invite List for the televised WH Grand Prix thing too. We'd spend hours on the 'phone working through players names, who we thought might or might not make good TV, could be relied upon to turn up. And who could or could not pay the Entry Fee. Jeez, there are some stories there, you would barely believe, players who claim to be Billy Big Bollox who could not scrape together the buy-in, kites that bounced, all sorts.

He was free & single when I met him, & we got up to all sorts, now he's happily married with saucepans, & he takes the kids for walks & all that stuff.

Happy birthday Phil, & many many more of them.

[Snowball]

Does this thread have Bwin?

Yup.

For geeks itt, we have placed 13 bets with BWin, totalling £494, losing £122.30 in the process for a negative ROI of 24.96%.

Spotted a bargain we can correct that with?

Yeah.

Mardy Fish v Roger Federer in the tennis tonight.

I recommend £80 on Mardy Fish UNDER 12.5 Games @ 17/20 (Bwin)
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens-us-open/roger-federer-v-mardy-fish/total-fish-games

Fish looked totally out of sorts the other night, scraping past an injured Simon who couldn't serve with any pace at all in 4. Fish hit an amazing 75 unforced errors which is virtually unheard of in 4 sets, 2 of which were short and only got 54% of first serves in. Now he comes up against the greatest of all time.

I think its unlikely he will get 12 games and I couldn't make this any bigger than 8/13.

I would be interested in some sort of alternative handicap at a speculative price but the only one that seems to be floating about is -11.5 @ 15/2 with Paddy Power and Fish only winning 6 games with his serve does seem a bit of a stretch too far.

Under 33.5 games at 5/6 with Hills would be a better bet.

[smashedagain]

Really enjoying this. I don't bet but reading the RVP, Button, unders goals knowing the results was interesting. Already used the "cider in your ear" quote.

The most shocking revation was a post at 5pm from Tikay saying you had just woken up. Obv a small siesta but went some way to answering the conundrum as to how you seem to be able to keep going like the Duracell bunny getting up so early in the mornings.

[tikay]

You need to help me here.

We are saying under 12.5 games for Fish, @ 17/20.

Or under 33.5 games TOTAL, @ 5/6.

How do we assess which is better, what is the logic train or thought process?

Apologies for being thick, but I need to understand the math(s).

[Horneris]

Under 33.5 games at 5/6 with Hills would be a better bet.

You might be right. Pretty close. I like that bet too.

[tikay]

Under 33.5 games at 5/6 with Hills would be a better bet.

You might be right. Pretty close. I like that bet too.

It has to be one or the other though, there would be no point in doing both?

I'm really interested in this, but I need to see the correlation between the two bets.

[tikay]

Really enjoying this. I don't bet but reading the RVP, Button, unders goals knowing the results was interesting. Already used the "cider in your ear" quote.

The most shocking revation was a post at 5pm from Tikay saying you had just woken up. Obv a small siesta but went some way to answering the conundrum as to how you seem to be able to keep going like the Duracell bunny getting up so early in the mornings.

Yup, I have to get some kip every afternoon these days, my energy levels have dropped alarmingly in the last year. It's amazing how quickly age has caught up with me, & I'm pretty sure some of my files have become corrupted. 

[hector62]

US Open tennis Murray v Raonic

I have been waiting for the moment to oppose Murray in this tournament and this is it. Murray has looked laboured in this competition and has struggled since his Olympic win. He took 4 hours to beat Feliciano Lopez in the last round and won 3-1. Later he plays Raonic, who has a huge serve and leads the tour in aces. In his last match Raonic beat former world number 4 Blake in straight sets, winning an impressive 89% of points on first serve. In their only previous meeting, in April this year, Raonic triumphed on a clay court, which is neither players preferred surface.

We can get 11/4 on Raonic with Bet365 but the 5/2 available at many other places is acceptable.

Recommend £20 on Raonic.

[scotty2hatty]

US Open tennis Murray v Raonic

I have been waiting for the moment to oppose Murray in this tournament and this is it. Murray has looked laboured in this competition and has struggled since his Olympic win. He took 4 hours to beat Feliciano Lopez in the last round and won 3-1. Later he plays Raonic, who has a huge serve and leads the tour in aces. In his last match Raonic beat former world number 4 Blake in straight sets, winning an impressive 89% of points on first serve. In their only previous meeting, in April this year, Raonic triumphed on a clay court, which is neither players preferred surface.

We can get 11/4 on Raonic with Bet365 but the 5/2 available at many other places is acceptable.

Recommend £20 on Raonic.

GTFO

[Horneris]

Under 33.5 games at 5/6 with Hills would be a better bet.

You might be right. Pretty close. I like that bet too.

It has to be one or the other though, there would be no point in doing both?

I'm really interested in this, but I need to see the correlation between the two bets.

If you back the Fish unders you have the scope for it going to 4 sets with a scoreline such as 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-1 (34 games) or 6-7 6-2 6-2 6-1 (36 games) or other scenarios where Fish nicks a set and collapses (possible) were the other bet is a loser

Whereas if you do the total game unders you probably (not absolutely definitely) need it to be over in 3 but have the potential for scorelines such as 7-6 6-4 6-3 (13 games for Fish) or 7-5 7-6 6-2 (13 games for Fish) which would be a loser with the other bet.

Maybe Snowball is right and the unders is a slightly better bet quickly looking at the potential scoreline benefits of each so thanks for that.

I'm sure there is some complex way to work out which is the better bet but I'm definitely not the man for that job currently as I'm laid in bed posting on my phone.

My opinion backs the view that both bets will win but they are very similar in reality so obv no point in doing both no.

[tikay]

Under 33.5 games at 5/6 with Hills would be a better bet.

You might be right. Pretty close. I like that bet too.

It has to be one or the other though, there would be no point in doing both?

I'm really interested in this, but I need to see the correlation between the two bets.

If you back the Fish unders you have the scope for it going to 4 sets with a scoreline such as 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-1 (34 games) or 6-7 6-2 6-2 6-1 (36 games) or other scenarios where Fish nicks a set and collapses (possible) were the other bet is a loser

Whereas if you do the total game unders you probably (not absolutely definitely) need it to be over in 3 but have the potential for scorelines such as 7-6 6-4 6-3 (13 games for Fish) or 7-5 7-6 6-2 (13 games for Fish) which would be a loser with the other bet.

Maybe Snowball is right and the unders is a slightly better bet quickly looking at the potential scoreline benefits of each so thanks for that.

I'm sure there is some complex way to work out which is the better bet but I'm definitely not the man for that job currently as I'm laid in bed posting on my phone.

My opinion backs the view that both bets will win but they are very similar in reality so obv no point in doing both no.

Thanks.

I sort of think (guided by Elders advice off-thread), that "under 33.5" feels better.

If I fully grasped why, I'd explain it....... 

[DungBeetle]

Have to confess I haven't watched a moment of the US Open, but I saw Federer v Fish at one of the warm up events (Cincinatti perhaps?) and Federer won 6-3 7-6.  Fish looked pretty good in that game.  He was broken immediately at the start of the match which killed the first set, but the 2nd set was pretty close.  I wouldn't be surprised if he took Federer to a couple of tiebreaks on that form, but like I said maybe Fish has been playing badly in the US Open compared to this.

[DungBeetle]

"We are saying under 12.5 games for Fish, @ 17/20.

Or under 33.5 games TOTAL, @ 5/6.

How do we assess which is better, what is the logic train or thought process?"

Well, I guess the totals is better because you win if Fed wins 7-6, 6-4, 6-4.  However, better to be on the other one if it ended 6-7 6-2 6-2 6-1 so it depends what you think is more likely scenario.

I'd suggest it is more likely Fish loses in 3 close sets than gets a set off federer and then gets hammered, so I'd go for the 33.5 total games, but it's a personal choice.